Turning Point In Season?

[Sanibel]

My view of this season thinks we are at sort of a mid-point.


The SAL has lowered the boom on the CV ITCZ belt for now. Remember we are still early believe it or not. If you take the risk of interpolating climatology from an active early season you should be looking for a lull. However, this is sort of a hybrid lull. Irene and TD10 probably formed from the high SST's, but the early August environment didn't support them.

This season is a good one for storm watching because we have already had a lot of action, yet we are still anticipating a second start with the Cape Verde season approaching. To me it will go one of two ways. The SST's will verify with a turning-on of conditions during peak season and we will see strong CV formation, or the active early season-inactive late season climatology tendency will materialize in spite of the prime conditions, causing a mediocre September.

I can't guess on track, but the Atlantic ridge is weaker this year.

Every year the west Caribbean becomes a player after late September. This is the wild card that could defy unfavorable CV Atlantic conditions if they materialize.

Remember, it is still only August 14th.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think things will get going in September, but we will probably have to wait until then. Anything that develops out there right now just won't last.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where I am it felt like a tropical storm for a good 1/2 hour
around 130 PM as a severe thunderstorm was nearby.
Gust to 51 mph at my location. Winds are still gusty around 25 mph
as the edge of some ominous clouds linger.

Sky is very ominous over Downtown St. Pete. Looks like another
big storm. Gusty winds continue. Could all that convection off the west
FL coast develop?

Update: Holy CRAZYNESS!!! THE SKY is the BLACKEST I'VE EVER
SEEN IT!!!!!

[LarryWx]

I posted something related to this in the following S2K thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70501

Despite what some here may feel, we still have had twice the normal # of NS's for 8/1-15, TWO vs. the normal of ONE. Only THREE of the last 55 years have had more than two during 8/1-15: 2004, 1990, and 1969. The very active 1995 had two and the record active 1933 had just one!

Moreover, the two of this year excludes TD #10!

[Sanibel]

True. And 70mph isn't chopped liver either. This is definitely a weird season in any case.

[webke]

Hi Tampa Bay,
Do you think that the ULL over Florida is causing this, It is definitely clear on the WV satellites, it is starting to move into the gulf should be interesting to see what it does.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Might be the ULL. Two outflow boundaries collided over SE St. Pete.
A nasty burst of strong winds moved through
coming from the strong storm. Gusts were close to 50.

But these are just thunderstorms, nothing tropical yet...

[jabber]

Might be the ULL. Two outflow boundaries collided over SE St. Pete.
A nasty burst of strong winds moved through
coming from the strong storm. Gusts were close to 50.

But these are just thunderstorms, nothing tropical yet...

Well you could say they were Tropical Thunderstorms

[senorpepr]

Here's a thought... from 1995 to 2004, excluding 1997, we averaged 3.3 named storms prior to Aug 15. We are nearly three times that amount now. Aug 15 and after over the same time frame -- we average 11.2 named storms. Apply that average to what we have so far and we're looking at 20 named storms.

Matter of fact, below is a breakdown of 1995-2004, the amount of storms prior to Aug 15, the amount of storms from Aug 15 to the end of the year, and then 2005's nine named storms added to that Aug 15 and after number. If this season stays "normal," as compared to the past decade, we're still looking at a playing in the 1995 & 1933 league. However... if the remaining part of the season is as active as it already as been... we better brush up on our Greek Alphabet, because we're going to see several storms come from it.

We shall see...

Code: Select all

A= Storms prior to Aug 15
B= Storm Aug 15 and after
C= 2005 YTD + year's storms Aug 15 and after

      A   B   C
1995  07  12  21
1996  03  10  19
1997  05  03  12
1998  01  13  22
1999  01  11  20
2000  02  13  22
2001  03  12  21
2002  03  09  18
2003  05  11  20
2004  05  10  19

[Sanibel]

That would be something if 2005 conditions put out 20 storms that all tracked as weak cyclones, with an occasional strong storm...

[Frank2]

Many interesing comments here, but, time moves quickly - hard to believe that two weeks from now we'll be just a day from September.

It also depends on what happens to the north - if the northern branch of the jet stream remains far to the north during September, this may make a difference, versus an early southward movement of the northern jet.

I'm not convinced that despite Dennis and Emily, that the most active portion of the season will match the predictions made earlier in the year and season.

Frank

[Sanibel]

I'm not convinced that despite Dennis and Emily, that the most active portion of the season will match the predictions made earlier in the year and season.

I think we are at that point now that TD10 busted and wasn't supported by conditions.

I believe the seasonal pattern has established a late settling in of the July conditions delayed by the robust July. Climatology from very active early seasons sometimes produces weak second halfs. I'm not saying that will happen, but this lull is what you should look for if it is setting up to do so.

A few of us on TWC board were discussing this in May. That the high SST's were not the only factor and Gray could be setting himself up for a bust. It is possible the high SST's caused more activity in the atmosphere that then drew the SAL down onto the ITCZ...