Food for thought

[Anonymous]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That track looks pretty good if you ask me.

[Anonymous]

Yea. While I certainly don't expect 150 mph, I am concerned given that this could be a hurricane in the Bahamas, and the waters off the Gulf Stream are boiling.

[sma10]

Mike,

That 1949 storm is actually a pretty famous one down in South Florida.
I believe it made landfall near Boca Raton as a category 4. Naturally, back in '49 that area was not nearly as populated as it is now.

Boy, what a terrible track that would be today at that strength. If it struck at that angle it would actually rake FLL and West Palm. Depending on size it could potentially give Miami a heckuva blow, too.

[HurricaneJoe22]

That's pretty close to worst-case scenario for SE coast.
100+ billion in damage I would think.

[wxmann_91]

That would not be a good track, but doubt it will happen with TD 10 b/c of shear and my good friend Sal.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What SAL???? I don't see any near this storm. All that is stoping it is southwestly shear.

[wxmann_91]

What SAL???? I don't see any near this storm. All that is stoping it is southwestly shear.

If you look at the latest SAL 5-day loops you can see a fresh new batch of SAL that just came off of Africa. Of course that has a chance of not making it to TD 10 but if TD 10 doesn't speed up the SAL will kill it in about three-five days.

[perk]

TD#10 is moving into an area of abundant moisure.I see no SAL hindering it.

[Frank2]

The WV loop reveals a stationary ULL just west of the low center, so, this will certainly slow any development at this time.

Click on http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html to view.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

yeah its not SAL inhibiting development of this thing but rather upper level shear. There is a weak upper low just north of the islands creating some shear for it. but again the NHC keeps saying that conditions could become more favorable within a couple days or so.

<RICKY>

[Frank2]

Yes, true, and hopefully all here accept the fact that the low can't run through the ULL - it'll either go around it to the north or dissipate it.

Frank

[recmod]

That's pretty close to worst-case scenario for SE coast.
100+ billion in damage I would think.

Ummm.....isn't this just about the exact trajectory that both Frances and Jeanne took into FLorida last year? I believe a worst case scenario for SE FL would be a landfall a bit farther south.

--Lou

[Frank2]

Except that Frances and Jeanne were not weak low-level swirls at this point - much different situation today.

Frank

[WeatherEmperor]

and Frances and Jeanne were not that monster Cat 4 at landfall that that 1949 hurricane was. Either way it would cause a crap load of damage.

<RICKY>

[gatorcane]

Remember Andrew didn't get going until just a little E of the Bahamas and turned into a monster CAT 5. Once TD 10 is under the influence of the Bermuda ridge in a couple of days it could get going.

[boca]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/cgi ... &name=Area\sForecast\sDiscussion

according to NWS Miami the trough will dig in along the East coast and shunt the high southward and if that happens TD10 won't get any farther west than the central Bahamas.

[Frank2]

Yes, that's been the thinking for several days, and is why, even with other factors in favor, all it takes is one sharp trough to make a big difference.

Looking at the temp forecast map last evening, there will have a major cool-down in the northeast and mid-Atlanitc states by Friday and Saturday (highs only in the 60s and 70s in the northeast), so, that shows the strength of this trough.

Many are getting excited by the possibilities for former TD10, but, with the trough in place will probably be another recurving system.

Frank

[Anonymous]

Yes, that's been the thinking for several days, and is why, even with other factors in favor, all it takes is one sharp trough to make a big difference.

Looking at the temp forecast map last evening, there will have a major cool-down in the northeast and mid-Atlanitc states by Friday and Saturday (highs only in the 60s and 70s in the northeast), so, that shows the strength of this trough.

Many are getting excited by the possibilities for former TD10, but, with the trough in place will probably be another recurving system.

Frank

Well...very well may be the case. But...is the system south of Bermuda in 5-6 days when it gets picked up like Irene? NO. The system may be near the Bahamas or even hitting Florida. Or...does the trough even get it? I am very concerned about Florida. Especially since models make this an 80 mph hurricane before it even gets over the boiling Bahamas.

[Stormcenter]

:eek:

That would not be a good track, but doubt it will happen with TD 10 b/c of shear and my good friend Sal.

SAL? LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!