Invest 98L is born!

[ts_kakolina]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Anonymous]

[ts_kakolina]

[/img]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks as organized as Bret/Gert. Its back over water. Its LLC is under that red convection.

[ts_kakolina]

[ts_kakolina]

Code: Select all

000
WHXX01 KWBC 220713
CHGHUR

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

    .....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION     INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050822  0600 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050822  0600   050822  1800   050823  0600   050823  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.8N  93.4W   18.5N  94.9W   18.4N  96.3W   18.4N  97.6W
  BAMM    18.8N  93.4W   19.0N  94.9W   19.2N  96.3W   19.5N  97.6W
  A98E    18.8N  93.4W   19.1N  94.9W   19.2N  96.5W   19.4N  98.2W
  LBAR    18.8N  93.4W   18.8N  94.9W   18.7N  96.9W   18.7N  98.9W
  SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          37KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          26KTS          26KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050824  0600   050825  0600   050826  0600   050827  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    18.6N  98.9W   19.6N 101.9W   21.1N 105.8W   22.8N 110.1W
  BAMM    19.9N  99.1W   21.1N 102.7W   22.6N 107.1W   24.2N 111.9W
  A98E    19.8N 100.0W   21.7N 104.1W   24.2N 108.0W   26.3N 111.8W
  LBAR    18.9N 101.3W   20.1N 106.5W   22.0N 111.4W   24.1N 116.7W
  SHIP        45KTS          58KTS          71KTS          75KTS
  DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          34KTS          36KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  18.8N LONCUR =  93.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
  LATM12 =  18.4N LONM12 =  91.9W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =   7KT
  LATM24 =  18.0N LONM24 =  90.4W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

  .....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Surface reports show it doe's in fact have a LLC. This thing is repaidly becoming organized. I expect Jose to form.

[ts_kakolina]

About Invest 98L from TWO 5:30 am August 22, 2005

Code: Select all

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe that the LLC is around 19.8 north/93 west.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the satellites closely shows a LLC around 19.8/94....This area is moving west-northwest. It has repaidly gotten better organized. In you can see low clouds start to move into the northern side near the end of the Blue satellite or IR 2.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[tailgater]

Matt why do think it's center is at 19.8 when NHC has it at 18.8 ?

[drezee]

Pressure is down 2.5 mb over 24 hours @ buoy 42055 in the BOC.
(1011.6 mb)

htp://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

1-minute sustained winds about 24 mph.

[wxman57]

Matt why do think it's center is at 19.8 when NHC has it at 18.8 ?

The buoy at 19.3N/92.5W has an east wind, so there's no center north of there at 19.8N. In fact, surface obs don't conclusively identify any low center at all. Just because models are being run doesn't mean there's a closed LLC, by the way. In any case, it appears that this system may be moving inland too quickly to get organized into Jose. Note that DSHP only indicates 27kt winds before it moves ashore.

[tailgater]

Matt why do think it's center is at 19.8 when NHC has it at 18.8 ?

The buoy at 19.3N/92.5W has an east wind, so there's no center north of there at 19.8N. In fact, surface obs don't conclusively identify any low center at all. Just because models are being run doesn't mean there's a closed LLC, by the way.

Agreed, do you think they will make the flight down there IF the convention persist.By the way do you have a link to that buoy at 19.3n/92.5w.

[wxman57]

Matt why do think it's center is at 19.8 when NHC has it at 18.8 ?

The buoy at 19.3N/92.5W has an east wind, so there's no center north of there at 19.8N. In fact, surface obs don't conclusively identify any low center at all. Just because models are being run doesn't mean there's a closed LLC, by the way.

Agreed, do you think they will make the flight down there IF the convention persist.

Oh, sure, they'll fly down there today. I'll be heading into the office soon, so I can post some high-res satellite and GARP images with surface reports plotted.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe it is not as far north as 19.8 but its over water. This system has come together very fast. In a surface ob to the southwest souths a northwest winds. So there has got to be something there. In this thing keeps getting more organized. The nhc report said theres a well defined area of low pressure. Given time this would turn into something quite big I would think.

In yes they will have recon for this.

[southerngale]

Maybe it is not as far north as 19.8 but its over water. This system has come together very fast. In a surface ob to the southwest souths a northwest winds. So there has got to be something there. In this thing keeps getting more organized. The nhc report said theres a well defined area of low pressure. Given time this would turn into something quite big I would think.

In yes they will have recon for this.

Huh? Matt, get some sleep.

[cycloneye]

GULF OF MEXICO...
PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR
19N93W MOVING WNW. THE LOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THIS
SYSTEM WITH AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 21.5N FROM 91W-97W WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION RIDING
UP THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 21N-24W. THE SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...THUS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS IN THE GULF.

The above from 8:05 AM discussion.

[Patrick99]

Maybe we can get another cheapo named TS out of this before it hits land and dies.

[Hyperstorm]

The system in the Bay of Campeche is steadily, but surely becoming better organized. Its organization has improved MARKEDLY since last night and it could very well become a tropical storm before it slams onshore during the next 12 hours (at the latest).

The only problem the system has is that the Air Force recon plane won't be in it until 5:00 pm EDT! That might be just a little too late for them to upgrade, UNLESS the NHC decides by a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement to upgrade to a Tropical Depression before the plane gets there. It will be a VERY close call, possibly more so than Bert.

If Invest 98L becomes a tropical storm, don't expect it to be of more than 40-50 mph and will probably last no more than 12 hours as such.

This has been an interesting year in which there have been several areas that have been worthy of naming in the Bay of Campeche. Normally, we don't get more than one tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico in an entire season, much less over the BOC. The primary reason for this is probably a northern extension of the Pacific Monsoon trough that is usually located near the coasts of Panama/Costa Rica this time of year.

If this continues, we could end up having a very active late season in the Caribbean and Southern GOM...