TD12 Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JTD]

Watch that ULL. It may disrupt this system an enormously significant amount.

2005 equals the year of the ULL-one of cyclogenesis's worst enemies.

[gkrangers]

Ok, it appears the Euro has done away with the zig zag track and gone with a more rational track WNW towards S Florida and the eastern GOM.

Inline with my earlier thinking of an Eastern GOM storm...

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_10.gif

The Ukmet has shifted drastically to the south After a So Fla Landfall.

[Blown Away]

Ukmet initializes to far South, Long Island (Bahamas) is near
23.5 N 75 W.

[artist]

looks like Palm Beach county may just get the brunt of this according to 2 of those models...

[WeatherEmperor]

Ukmet initializes to far South, Long Island (Bahamas) is near
23.5 N 75 W.

does anybody know where the hurricane hunters found the true center?

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_12.gif

It is now STORM *12*

That is the correct model plot.

[HouTXmetro]

Bad news for SO Fla, the models are zeroing in on them.

[gatorcane]

the convection is exploding this afternoon...lots of cold cloud tops expanding outward

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

ID      T1 TIME    LAT     LON DIST HDG WDIR  WSPD   GST  WVHT   DPD   APD MWD   PRES  PTDY  ATMP  WTMP  DEWP   VIS  TIDE
           (GMT)                 nm   °    °   kts   kts    ft   sec   sec   °     in    in    °F    °F    °F    mi    ft
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A8CI9    S 1800  23.80  -74.70  109   9   80  29.9     -     -     -     -   -  29.84 -0.06  81.7  86.0     -   6.2     -


A ship near the center just reported a 30 knots surface winds.

[Air Force Met]

Ukmet initializes to far South, Long Island (Bahamas) is near
23.5 N 75 W.

does anybody know where the hurricane hunters found the true center?

<RICKY>

Haven't found one yet...but we know it's south of 23.5 because there are east winds at that location. Maybe 23.3 / 75.5? Kinda hard to tell. I think we have a broad low with some vort maxes rotating around inside. It could form a degree north or south of that location...depending on which little twist decides to become predominate.

[wxwatcher91]

besides the ULL to the north, is there anything inhibitting development of TD 12? the GOM is boiling. wouldnt there be tremendous strengthening in the future if the track went into the GOM?

[gkrangers]

besides the ULL to the north, is there anything inhibitting development of TD 12? the GOM is boiling. wouldnt there be tremendous strengthening in the future if the track went into the GOM?

Sure, if upper level winds were favorable and the air was moist.

Takes more than warm water.

[clfenwi]

Yeah, there's um... some slight disagreements in the shear forecasts for the GOM.

Compare 12Z GFS at 72h

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=072hr

with 12Z Canadian at 72h

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

[LAwxrgal]

Pass the coffee. It's gonna be a long week of wobble watching at Storm2K.

[Sanibel]

I hate when I'm totally wrong, but the center was further north. I misread the visible loop...

[gkrangers]

I hate when I'm totally wrong, but the center was further north. I misread the visible loop...

Misread? Did you mistake one of the Bahamian islands for Cuba?

[CronkPSU]

i apologize if this has already been posted...pretty big change but will be more interested in seeing the 00z models now that we have some solid recon info

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png">

[Sanibel]

We'll see if the left models are wrong again...

[WeatherEmperor]

We'll see if the left models are wrong again...

tell me about it. i guess only time will tell. im really anxious to see what the NHC has to say at their 5pm advisory which should be out within the next 10-15 minutes I suppose.

<RICKY>