comparing 2005-2004-1995-1933= all done!

[wxwatcher91]

sorry this wasnt updated at all after Phillipe I think it was.
I kinda got preoccupied with Rita and the rest of the storms and school and stuff.

anyway no more comparing! we have Alpha and now 2005 is the bar to reach. more storms are sure to come also. I'm going to go as far as to say we could see at least another 4 named storm based on how this season is going.

Thank you very much everyone btw. Storm2k has been awesome for me this season. I joined earlier this summer and have learned a ton here and have added at least 40 new sites to my favs list! lol

[cycloneye]

Will 2005 have two more names to add to the record very soon?

[wxwatcher91]

Will 2005 have two more names to add to the record very soon?

judging by the latest T#s I think we will definitely have two TDs to talk about later today and probably at least one TS by this evening.

editted to include latest T#s:

23/1145 UTC 21.3N 74.1W T1.0/1.0 10
23/1145 UTC 17.1N 36.2W T1.5/1.5 97

[sma10]

Will 2005 have two more names to add to the record very soon?

Yes. And the people who boldly predicted a dead 2nd half of season with a total of 14 or so storms will bust badly.

[WeatherEmperor]

Will 2005 have two more names to add to the record very soon?

Yes. And the people who boldly predicted a dead 2nd half of season with a total of 14 or so storms will bust badly.

blame it on SAL remember?

<RICKY>

[James]

Perhaps 2005 will pull significantly ahead of 1995 in the coming weeks. There was after all a comparative lull in the first half of September that year.

[WeatherEmperor]

Perhaps 2005 will pull significantly ahead of 1995 in the coming weeks. There was after all a comparative lull in the first half of September that year.

September 1995 had only 3 named storms. Marilyn, Noel and Opal. If we in 2005 could get to Lee before the end of August which seems possible given 97L and the Bahamas disturbance, we could be in a real position to have an active September and overtake 1995.

<RICKY>

[wxwatcher91]

what I'm wondering about at this point is how many Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes are left for us... we've gotten 10 Named Storms however only 3 hurricanes and 2 majors... not that 3 hurricanes and 2 majors isnt a lot just proportionately it's low... 1995 at this point had 10 NSs like 2005 but had 5 hurricanes

[sma10]

Will 2005 have two more names to add to the record very soon?

Yes. And the people who boldly predicted a dead 2nd half of season with a total of 14 or so storms will bust badly.

blame it on SAL remember?

<RICKY>

I know you say that jokingly Ricky, but what others may not understand is that in any given hurricane season (active or inactive) there is ALWAYS pockets and areas of dry air. It is normal. I think there is a misconception that in a typical hurricane season the entire Atlantic from 10N to 30N and from 20W to 90W is one unbroken mass of juicy water vapor.

Also, as Derecho has pointed our at least a dozen times, tropical formation conditions have been ABOVE average thus far this season. It just took until the 3rd week of August (go figure) for things to start popping more consistently. In fact, who knows, this may turn out to be similar to 1995, only without the September swoon during the heart of the season.

[sma10]

what I'm wondering about at this point is how many Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes are left for us... we've gotten 10 Named Storms however only 3 hurricanes and 2 majors... not that 3 hurricanes and 2 majors isnt a lot just proportionately it's low... 1995 at this point had 10 NSs like 2005 but had 5 hurricanes

Perhaps it's better to compare the proportion to climatology. 3 hurricanes and 2 majors at this point (Aug 23) is doing quite well. Yes, we've had a busy 1st half, but what are you going to expect in June and July? We had 7 named storms in June/July--you couldn't possibly expect 5 or 6 of them to be hurricanes. Also, WHERE the storms develop must be considered. For example, Jose will go down in the books as a tropical storm, but the feeling is that he may have made more of himself if he didn't form 50 miles from shore.

[WeatherEmperor]

The incredibly high expectations for this season have clouded the judgement of most of us here. Its inactive for a little while(lull) and doom is spelled right away. Maybe we should just lay off the number predicting and get back to just watching and learning.

<RICKY>

[wxwatcher91]

what I'm wondering about at this point is how many Hurricanes and Major Hurricanes are left for us... we've gotten 10 Named Storms however only 3 hurricanes and 2 majors... not that 3 hurricanes and 2 majors isnt a lot just proportionately it's low... 1995 at this point had 10 NSs like 2005 but had 5 hurricanes

Perhaps it's better to compare the proportion to climatology. 3 hurricanes and 2 majors at this point (Aug 23) is doing quite well. Yes, we've had a busy 1st half, but what are you going to expect in June and July? We had 7 named storms in June/July--you couldn't possibly expect 5 or 6 of them to be hurricanes. Also, WHERE the storms develop must be considered. For example, Jose will go down in the books as a tropical storm, but the feeling is that he may have made more of himself if he didn't form 50 miles from shore.

yes and when talking about this I think it is necessary to always bring up the THREE TSs that reached 70mph...

[Steve]

>>The incredibly high expectations for this season have clouded the judgement of most of us here. Its inactive for a little while(lull) and doom is spelled right away. Maybe we should just lay off the number predicting and get back to just watching and learning.

I think it's the ever-shortening attention spans of the American public, most of whom are stuck in Freud's anal stage requiring immediate gratification at all times lest they pout, have hissy fits and make proclaimations that aren't firmly rooted in reality.

/just my take

Steve

[wxwatcher91]

>>The incredibly high expectations for this season have clouded the judgement of most of us here. Its inactive for a little while(lull) and doom is spelled right away. Maybe we should just lay off the number predicting and get back to just watching and learning.

I think it's the ever-shortening attention spans of the American public, most of whom are stuck in Freud's anal stage requiring immediate gratification at all times lest they pout, have hissy fits and make proclaimations that aren't firmly rooted in reality.

/just my take

Steve

very well said lol

[WeatherEmperor]

>>The incredibly high expectations for this season have clouded the judgement of most of us here. Its inactive for a little while(lull) and doom is spelled right away. Maybe we should just lay off the number predicting and get back to just watching and learning.

I think it's the ever-shortening attention spans of the American public, most of whom are stuck in Freud's anal stage requiring immediate gratification at all times lest they pout, have hissy fits and make proclaimations that aren't firmly rooted in reality.

/just my take

Steve

lol like i said. great sense of humor.

<RICKY>

[cjrciadt]

Perhaps 2005 will pull significantly ahead of 1995 in the coming weeks. There was after all a comparative lull in the first half of September that year.

My first year here in FL, I still remember the Orland Sentinel with the conveyor belt of systems in September. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1995_atlantic_hurricane_season_map.gif

[Jim Cantore]

the CMC says we'll have Katrina, Lee, and Maria in 144 hours so we might pass 1995 on pace

or then again Karen and Luis formed around this time

[wxwatcher91]

bump: UPDATE at top of page

[Anonymous]

SLIM CHANCE OF MAJOR HURRICANE?

If it moves out over waters 85-95 degrees, and ideal upper level conditions...I think once its at 90 mph...its all rapid deepening from there. What do you see that's making it's chance slim???

[cjrciadt]

bump: UPDATE at top of page

Maybe add TD13 by the end of today (5pm to 11pm)http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html