A few quotes from mets.

[hicksta]

Found this on another forum thought id put it here.

Based on what I've seen on the 00Z models this morning, I see nothing to support this storm moving north over the next several days. Instead I believe Katrina will move due west into the Gulf of Mexico and end up to the south of LA by Monday morning. The only feature that will force Katrina to move north is a trough over the western US, and it appears Katrina will not be close enough to be effected by this system until Monday. Therefore, Katrina should have no issues with shear (except for the land impact from Florida) to slow the intensification process in the Gulf. I expect Katrina to be a moderately strong hurricane by Monday morning and threatening the central and/or western Gulf at this time. "


"The ridge that is building to the north of Katrina IMO, is still not being modeled strongly enough. The NAM and GFS have been inconsistent with the ULL/ closed h500 low dropping into the N. plains. This will have a profound effect on the track (as these troughs always do!!) of Katrina. At this point, I have a weak attraction to a slightly more westward track. And, due to it running along the coast at large angle, may translate into a much farther westward landfall (SW LA or SE TX). "

[jasons2k]

Thanks for that post! Not surprising. The models have been having a hard time with the ridge all season. I am worried a bit about this scenario but everyone seems to be convinced it's another AL/FL threat. I'm not convinced of that at all, especially with the system not even in the GOM yet. By day 5 a subtle difference in the forecasted ridge strength/placement will have a huge impact on the path.

And if it is on a WNW trajectory in the GOM, any slight deviation can make a huge difference in the track. Just ask residents of Punta Gorda about that one.

[southerngale]

You need to give credit to the mets who said that if you're going to post it here.

[hicksta]

no clue who said it i just copied it from a diffrent forum. whihc the poster didnt say there names

[vbhoutex]

I have been concerned about the continued under development of the ridge by the models all this year. It continues to happen apparently as this post is not the only mets I have heard this from(I don't know who they are, but I can guess and won't). Most models apparently think that the trough coming into the midwest this weekend early/next week will have enough influence to force the turn into the weakness between the ridge firmly in place over Texas(and not expected to move anytime soon) and the ridge over the SE. I have some doubts about that, but will for the time being go with the current progged landfall in the already ravaged NE FL area unfortunately. I figure things will become much clearer in about 3 days.

[Steve]

Sounds like a LA/TX met

Anyway, y'all are talking about the ridge. But my understanding is we ain't talking about the Bermuda Ridge as the one that's going to weaken on its western periphery. It's the E-W ridge north of Katrina. That's a pretty narrow and eliptical ridge or ridge extension (not to be confused with the Bermuda High). There is another upper high over the State of Louisiana that looks parked. However, when the front tails down from the upper system over Saskatchewan, we'll have to see how far south it can get and what damage it can do to whatever high pressure is westwardly butting into LA/MS/AL.

Count me in the camp that thinks the NHC is better than 50% on with the track into NW FL. I'm not making any predictions but like I said in 2 other threads, Walton, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa Counties appears to be the most likely area of impact.

Who knows?

Steve