Invest 92L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

7:58 AM

[SouthFloridawx]

[jabber]

7:58 AM

Looks like a couple LLC's swirling around.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I know it has that look to it. This is looking like are next storm to watch.

[SouthFloridawx]

for GFS that is two runs in a row like that.

[SouthFloridawx]

for GFS that is two runs in a row like that.

correction


here are the runs as follows

00Z.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z

[SouthFloridawx]

06

[SouthFloridawx]

12

[SouthFloridawx]

18

[Scorpion]

Wow.... 4 runs in a row.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z FSU MM5 120 Hours

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, I would really be surprised if this somehow dissipates. GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UK, the trend in this case is not our friend. This is not a model "hinting" this is more like shouting..

[cycloneye]

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 8N33W MOVING W
RATHER RAPIDLY AT 20-25 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS MOVEMENT
COULD BE DUE TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER RATHER THAN PURE
TRANSLATION. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO
ITS S AND W...AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS TRIED
TO FORM OVER THE WRN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-38W. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ANY
TIME WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS.


8 PM Special Feature discussion from TPC.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, it's good to see the experts see it the way we do
i.e. embeened in the ITCZ and the banding etc.

This is the fasten your seatbelt special statement...Luis, it looks like you should soon be getting ready... to get ready. You know what I mean!

[Marilyn]

Could this storm have an affect on the EC???

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 7.9 32.7 270./14.9
6 8.1 33.1 294./ 4.1
12 7.8 34.0 251./ 9.3
18 7.8 34.7 272./ 7.6
24 7.2 36.7 252./20.0
30 7.7 37.1 319./ 6.5
36 9.0 38.2 319./17.3
42 9.1 39.7 274./14.6
48 10.2 40.8 314./14.8
54 11.3 42.2 307./18.1
60 11.8 44.2 284./19.7
66 12.1 46.1 280./18.6
72 12.4 47.5 284./14.7
78 12.9 49.3 284./17.4
84 13.2 51.0 281./16.8
90 13.6 52.5 283./15.5
96 14.2 54.0 294./15.4
102 14.7 55.4 288./14.4
108 15.2 56.8 289./15.0
114 15.5 58.0 285./12.3
120 16.2 59.1 303./11.9
126 16.8 60.4 297./13.8


18z GFDL.It is similar as the UKMET plowing thru the Leeward Islands Near Guadeloupe.

[gatorcane]

Luis you will definitely have your hands full with this one as it may hit or come close to Puerto Rico possibly as a major hurricane it looks like.