Tropical Storm Ophelia
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- wxman57
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I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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wxman57 wrote:I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.
I agree. Looks like some rainy weather here on the peninsula.
The ridge just appears to become too strong to allow too much North
movement
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that would be beyond bad.wxman57 wrote:I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.
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- Eyes2theSkies
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Rainband wrote:that would be beyond bad.wxman57 wrote:I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.
Yes it is a horrible scenario, but I fear it's what seems probable based on
wxman57's thinking.

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- hurricanedude
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- wxman57
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One other factor - I believe that the center is in the process of reforming around 28N/79W, about 80-90 miles north of the latest recon fix. Such a reformation would decrease the threat that it could reach New Orleans, but it could still pose a threat to the FL Panhandle as it moves W-WNW with the ridge to the north blocking much northward motion. Also, a more northern starting point would mean less time over water in the NE Gulf, so less time to strengthen.
As for the 21Z NHC track, it's to the right of all model guidance except the LBAR and UKMET. Not where I'd want my forecast track to be (nor where it actually is). Note that the NHC provided absolutely no meteorological reasoning for their track right into the ridge.
As for the 21Z NHC track, it's to the right of all model guidance except the LBAR and UKMET. Not where I'd want my forecast track to be (nor where it actually is). Note that the NHC provided absolutely no meteorological reasoning for their track right into the ridge.
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hurricanedude wrote:Local mets here say its pretty much a toss up right now..once it does begin to move that will certainly help the forecast, as the initial motion may be the motion it takes for 3-4 days...so we just have to wait and see when she decides to move
FirstCoastNews is saying TS conditions on friday and saturday for us now:
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/weather/5dayforecast.aspx
Im waiting to hear what George Winterling says about this storm. Havent had time to watch the news today....
Either way, if the storm comes, we have high winds, if it goes south, the pressure gradient from the high pressure/ridge to the north and the storm to our south would still make for a wet windy weekend.
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- wxman57
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Rainband wrote:They don't need a bucket more of water. Let alone a weak Low.SamSagnella wrote:While, yes, the GFDL does bring the system to the LA coastline, it brings it in as a very weak low (>1006mb).
And yesterday's 12Z GFDL had it to 124 kts when it reached SE LA. I'd say somewhere between those two forecasts.
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hurricanedude wrote:Local mets here say its pretty much a toss up right now..once it does begin to move that will certainly help the forecast, as the initial motion may be the motion it takes for 3-4 days...so we just have to wait and see when she decides to move
And within a day of on the 41st anniversary of Hurricane Dora



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