Tropical Storm Ophelia

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wxman57
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#181 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:22 pm

I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.
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#182 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.


I agree. Looks like some rainy weather here on the peninsula.
The ridge just appears to become too strong to allow too much North
movement
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#183 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.
that would be beyond bad.
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#184 Postby Eyes2theSkies » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:24 pm

its does look further north. But recon does not lie it is 108 miles east of palm beach
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#185 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:25 pm

Rainband wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I just don't buy the latest NHC track one bit. They're trying to minimize error by splitting the difference between possibilities. I think it's a slim chance that it curves out to sea as per UKMET/LBAR. Model trend is westward beyond 48 hours, and into the NE Gulf. GFS did pretty badly with Katrina until it became a hurricane, so I wouldn't tend to trust it early on as the NHC is doing. GFDL did very well with Katrina early on, and the current GFDL says WNW toward SE LA. I'd buy that a lot more than the current NHC non-commital track.
that would be beyond bad.


Yes it is a horrible scenario, but I fear it's what seems probable based on
wxman57's thinking. :cry:
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#186 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:27 pm

ones opinion dont make it probable...just one of many options
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#187 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:29 pm

hurricanedude wrote:ones opinion dont make it probable...just one of many options


I know. But several local mets were mentioning the strengthening of the
ridge. And so was HPC

Not saying it will happen, but it's what some mets think might happen
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#188 Postby SamSagnella » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:31 pm

While, yes, the GFDL does bring the system to the LA coastline, it brings it in as a very weak low (>1006mb).
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#189 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:32 pm

SamSagnella wrote:While, yes, the GFDL does bring the system to the LA coastline, it brings it in as a very weak low (>1006mb).
They don't need a bucket more of water. Let alone a weak Low.
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#190 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:32 pm

Local mets here say its pretty much a toss up right now..once it does begin to move that will certainly help the forecast, as the initial motion may be the motion it takes for 3-4 days...so we just have to wait and see when she decides to move
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#191 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:33 pm

Yea it is highly uncertain...now that I think about it
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#192 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:59 pm

One other factor - I believe that the center is in the process of reforming around 28N/79W, about 80-90 miles north of the latest recon fix. Such a reformation would decrease the threat that it could reach New Orleans, but it could still pose a threat to the FL Panhandle as it moves W-WNW with the ridge to the north blocking much northward motion. Also, a more northern starting point would mean less time over water in the NE Gulf, so less time to strengthen.

As for the 21Z NHC track, it's to the right of all model guidance except the LBAR and UKMET. Not where I'd want my forecast track to be (nor where it actually is). Note that the NHC provided absolutely no meteorological reasoning for their track right into the ridge.
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#193 Postby jdray » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:00 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Local mets here say its pretty much a toss up right now..once it does begin to move that will certainly help the forecast, as the initial motion may be the motion it takes for 3-4 days...so we just have to wait and see when she decides to move


FirstCoastNews is saying TS conditions on friday and saturday for us now:
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/weather/5dayforecast.aspx

Im waiting to hear what George Winterling says about this storm. Havent had time to watch the news today....


Either way, if the storm comes, we have high winds, if it goes south, the pressure gradient from the high pressure/ridge to the north and the storm to our south would still make for a wet windy weekend.
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#194 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:00 pm

Rainband wrote:
SamSagnella wrote:While, yes, the GFDL does bring the system to the LA coastline, it brings it in as a very weak low (>1006mb).
They don't need a bucket more of water. Let alone a weak Low.


And yesterday's 12Z GFDL had it to 124 kts when it reached SE LA. I'd say somewhere between those two forecasts.
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#195 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:02 pm

hurricanedude wrote:Local mets here say its pretty much a toss up right now..once it does begin to move that will certainly help the forecast, as the initial motion may be the motion it takes for 3-4 days...so we just have to wait and see when she decides to move


And within a day of on the 41st anniversary of Hurricane Dora :eek:
:rarrow: In all seriousness now, I hope at worst, as far as Greater JAX Metro(NE FLA) is concerned, a strong TS 60-70 winds ...not going post the "H" word ...for now :wink:
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#196 Postby truballer#1 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:06 pm

just heard from my met that td 16 likly tropical storm at 11:00
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#197 Postby jdray » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:07 pm

No H word....


the current track takes it over my house. Im glad the 4-5 day window isnt all that accurate.

:)
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#198 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:12 pm

Serious deepening taking place--- very likely a TS by 1100 PM
YIKES-A-RONI :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#199 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:13 pm

jdray wrote:No H word....


the current track takes it over my house. Im glad the 4-5 day window isnt all that accurate.

:)



Big :eek: if is does turn out right for us....it is still a TD...so take the forecast models for :rarrow: now(next 12 or so hours of this reply) :larrow: with a gain of salt...
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#200 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:13 pm

i am here in boynton beach, fl 33436 and I am reporting that I have low level clouds moving from the west to east. Earlier they were moving in from the north. This tells me that the center is father north and that is maybe getting more organized.
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