Tropical Storm Ophelia

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tailgater
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#461 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:44 pm

North drift last nite, stall today, south drift tonite, southwest tomorrow, turning west and picking up speed, isn't that what happens when they get captured by a ridge. But hopefully she'll get rip apart by the the shear the NHC mentioned.
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#462 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:48 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:when will they issue hurricane watches?


If the NHC track verifies, not in the next 5 days. Hurricane force winds must be able to get to the coast.
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#463 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:49 pm

Deb321 wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:when will they issue hurricane watches?


It's not a hurricane yet. According to TWC that is not expected right away.


Its not far off - pressure dropped 2 mb from 5 Pm to 8 PM. Now at 994 mb. Most textbooks classify CAT 1 hurricane force pressures at 992 mb.
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#464 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:52 pm

boca_chris wrote:Yes, I was up in St. Augustine this past Labor Day weekend. It's already an eerie town but the wind was up around 20-30 mph most of the time with a train of showers that were rolling through from the Atlantic. I hadn't been monitoring the weather but you could tell there was something brewing in the Atlantic.

I didn't see any ghosts. I think they decided to leave the town early :eek:

Can you still drive on that beach. Man I had some good times out there :layout:
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#465 Postby Deb321 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:52 pm

ronjon wrote:
Deb321 wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:when will they issue hurricane watches?


It's not a hurricane yet. According to TWC that is not expected right away.


Its not far off - pressure dropped 2 mb from 5 Pm to 8 PM. Now at 994 mb. Most textbooks classify CAT 1 hurricane force pressures at 992 mb.


Even if the winds are still only 50? I don't know that's why I rely on you guys here and the weather channel :D
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#466 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 07, 2005 7:57 pm

Deb321 wrote:
ronjon wrote:
Deb321 wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:when will they issue hurricane watches?


It's not a hurricane yet. According to TWC that is not expected right away.


Its not far off - pressure dropped 2 mb from 5 Pm to 8 PM. Now at 994 mb. Most textbooks classify CAT 1 hurricane force pressures at 992 mb.


Even if the winds are still only 50? I don't know that's why I rely on you guys here and the weather channel :D


there is sometimes a time lag - usually hours - between when the pressure drops and the wind speeds catch up. This happened with katrina also.
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#467 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:00 pm

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">


<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png">
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#468 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:05 pm

The models are really clearing a picture now. :roll: If the BAMM models are true, I could be here next Wed. doing this same thing. :raincloud:
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#469 Postby artist » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:05 pm

last vortex up 1 millibar
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#470 Postby Scorpion » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:20 pm

Storm cancel. :wink:
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#471 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:33 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z THU SEP 08 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.1N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 79.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 79.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.3N 79.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#472 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES... 140 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#473 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:38 pm

It's dying...

:lol:
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#474 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:42 pm

ok, call it a wobble, drift, sustained movement....the last hour or so...i have seen about 7nm movement around 275....anyone else seeing this?
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#475 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:43 pm

all i'm seeing is the eye becoming less organized and a big dry area SSW of the center
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#476 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:44 pm

Scorpion wrote:Storm cancel. :wink:


Brent wrote:It's dying...

:lol:


:roflmao:

However, a small rise in pressure like that may easily be only temporary. Still, the storm appears to be slightly less organized, although it still has good overall convection.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#477 Postby baitism » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:45 pm

deltadog03 wrote:ok, call it a wobble, drift, sustained movement....the last hour or so...i have seen about 7nm movement around 275....anyone else seeing this?


Yeah i noticed this a little too. The eye is ragged though, so it can be decieving.
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#478 Postby Jim Hughes » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:46 pm

This does not add up. I briefly heard Jim Cantore talking to Steve Lyons about the recon report around 10:22pm . They either mentioned that the plane found winds of 50 knots or 54 knots. They even said that we could see an increase in the wind speed in the 11pm update.

How can there be no increase when the recon actually measures one?


Jim
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#479 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:47 pm

Jim Hughes wrote:This does not add up. I briefly heard Jim Cantore talking to Steve Lyons about the recon report around 10:22pm . They either mentioned that the plane found winds of 50 knots or 54 knots. They even said that we could see an increase in the wind speed in the 11pm update.

How can there be no increase when the recon actually measures one?


Jim


50 and 54 kts do not support stronger than 45 kt at the surface. I saw Cantore say the same thing but I don't know where he got it from...
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#480 Postby feederband » Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:48 pm

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