Tropical Storm Ophelia

jrod · #941 Postby **jrod** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 7:59 am

Everyone who has been calling her a fish are about to be served some crow.

It looks like she will be back on a westerly course by the end of the day. Landfall is iminent but still about 72 hours out. If you didnt know already the NHC is calling for a landfall somewhere in the Carolina's.

beenthru6 · #942 Postby **beenthru6** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 8:01 am

Go away Ophelia! I just wish someone could get a better handle on exactly where she is going to come ashore.

#943 Postby **MBismyPlayground** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 8:07 am

beenthru6 wrote:Go away Ophelia! I just wish someone could get a better handle on exactly where she is going to come ashore.

I agree, but then again look where we both are. But, it is gonna be a gorgeous day and I guess we might as well enjoy it. Think I will hit Coral Beach for a bit, see how the surf is.

#944 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 8:14 am

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA (AL162005) ON 20050910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050910 1200 050911 0000 050911 1200 050912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.5N 76.6W 32.3N 76.0W 32.7N 75.7W 33.0N 76.1W
BAMM 31.5N 76.6W 32.2N 76.5W 32.5N 76.8W 32.6N 77.8W
A98E 31.5N 76.6W 32.3N 75.5W 32.8N 74.8W 33.0N 74.8W
LBAR 31.5N 76.6W 32.2N 75.3W 32.9N 73.3W 32.9N 70.0W
SHIP 60KTS 60KTS 62KTS 65KTS
DSHP 60KTS 60KTS 62KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050912 1200 050913 1200 050914 1200 050915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.6N 77.1W 35.4N 78.1W 37.9N 77.2W 41.3N 72.9W
BAMM 33.0N 79.4W 33.8N 81.0W 35.0N 80.0W 36.0N 77.6W
A98E 32.8N 73.8W 31.7N 71.6W 31.4N 69.4W 32.4N 68.6W
LBAR 33.2N 65.0W 34.1N 53.7W 35.4N 44.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 65KTS 62KTS 57KTS 47KTS
DSHP 65KTS 49KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.5N LONCUR = 76.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 77.5W DIRM12 = 51DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 29.3N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 65NM RD34NW = 65NM

12:00z Run of the models.

#945 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:38 am

WTNT21 KNHC 101436
TCMAT1
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z SAT SEP 10 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 65SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 175SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 76.5W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

#946 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:43 am

Thunder44 · #947 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:44 am

Only a 5kt wind increase before landfall?

#948 Postby **ALhurricane** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:51 am

It seems rather odd to have a significant increase in initial intensity and at the same time significantly reduce the forecast intensity.

If anything, the enivornment will become more favorable for strengthening in the next couple of days. If it were me, I would have kept the 85kt forecast that had been going in previous packages.

Hyperstorm · #949 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:51 am

Thunder44 wrote:Only a 5kt wind increase before landfall?

Guess who wrote the advisory package...

Come on, repeat after me.....A....V.....I.......d conservative... :lol:

Seriously...dry air could very well be an inhibitor and UL winds are not especially favorable either...

#950 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:55 am

** Waiting for discussion**

Thunder44 · #951 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:58 am

Hyperstorm wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Only a 5kt wind increase before landfall?

Guess who wrote the advisory package...

Come on, repeat after me.....A....V.....I.......d conservative...

Seriously...dry air could very well be an inhibitor and UL winds are not especially favorable either...

I thought once it turned westward, a ridge would become established over it.

#952 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 9:59 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED 80 MPH WINDS IN OPHELIA...NOW A
HURRICANE AGAIN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR
3 MPH. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 76.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 976 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

Skywatch_NC · #953 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:01 am

Last night on the late news (WRAL-TV5) Raleigh...and watching chief met Greg Fishel giving the forecast...one segment called "Weatherscope" it showed 2 other options for Ophelia...one was out to sea and no threat to land...other showed that baby traveling up the coast towards LI or so!

Eric

Derek Ortt · #954 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:03 am

I am having a VERY hard time understanding the thinking in the NHC forecast. Would not have broke continuity when conditions are more favorable and the hurricane is more intense than expected

#955 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:09 am

Is the first time I see the discussion come out very late well after the hour of advisorie.

wxwatcher91 · #956 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:12 am

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 17

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 10, 2005

an Air Force plane just reported 976 mb and measured 78 knots at 700
mb. Therefore...the initial intensity has been increased to 70
knots. The environment ahead of Ophelia is only marginally
favorable for strengthening. Therefore...only slight increase in
intensity is indicated in the forecast.
Ophelia has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or
040 degrees at 3 knots. The track forecast has not changed...with
high pressure expected to develop north of the hurricane. This
pattern would force Ophelia to move on a west-northwest track in
about 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...the hurricane should continue
toward the southeast U.S. Coast as indicated in previous forecasts.
Track models have not changed either so there is not much to add.
Ophelia has a large area of tropical storm force winds...and these
winds may be approaching the coast earlier than the center of the
hurricane.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/1500z 31.6n 76.5w 70 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 32.0n 76.3w 75 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 32.2n 76.9w 75 kt
36hr VT 12/0000z 32.3n 77.4w 75 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 32.5n 78.0w 75 kt
72hr VT 13/1200z 33.5n 79.5w 70 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/1200z 35.0n 79.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 15/1200z 37.6n 77.5w 30 kt...inland

$$

#957 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:13 am

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST REPORTED 976 MB AND MEASURED 78 KNOTS AT 700
MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70
KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR
040 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN
ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED EITHER SO THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD.

OPHELIA HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THESE
WINDS MAY BE APPROACHING THE COAST EARLIER THAN THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 31.6N 76.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 32.0N 76.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 32.2N 76.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 32.3N 77.4W 75 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 32.5N 78.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 70 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1200Z 37.6N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND

And look how short it is this discussion.

Thunder44 · #958 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:14 am

Yeah, wait so long for such a short discussion. :roll:

Derek Ortt · #959 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:16 am

couple of points

the dropsonde said it is more intense than 70KT

the environment is becoming more favorable

OtherHD · #960 Postby **OtherHD** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 10:24 am

I had the pleasure of meeting Avila once...he's a really great guy. That said, this has got to be one of the worst discussions I've read in a long time.

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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