Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Regit]

Does anyone else see that maybe it is moving slow to sw on the vis..And what that may mean..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Definitely a SW movement and it seems to be persisting. Helps one buy into the GFDL scenario.

[deltadog03]

yeah, its sloooowly moving sw...or wsw...i look for the models to continue to shift west even more....GA to NC needs to watch this very closely

[webke]

I saw that movement also and I expect at 11:00 if the movement continues that the track will be changed by the NHC.

[cjrciadt]

I dont like the LBAR even though she is moving that way this second.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I agree with the movement, it's not just and eye wobble. the entire circ is in that motion. The steady recon info is most likely improving the model performance. It looks to be moving as fast as it ever has 3-6 kts? maybe.

If a steady movement will persist the NHC will have a much better handle on the track. I think they were wise to leave the watches up.

[spinfan4eva]

I dont like the LBAR even though she is moving that way this second.

I have to agree, it is currently WSW of the 11am position

Actually LBAR shifted farther south now.

[feederband]

If the Lbar model pans out crows will become extinct..

[stormynorfolk]

Looks like we're going to see a loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Personally I would feel safer if the LBAR was pointed directly at me.

[cjrciadt]

Up till yesterday the LBAR had her moving NE then due E into the ocean far away then changed abruptly to this what has it picked up on??

[bartman]

Skyline offered for us to check out the buoy data off the coast from NESC / SENC. One piece of noteworthy data (aside from wind spd/gsts), is the drop in ocean temp by a full degree F in the last 24 hrs. That may not sound like much, but it illustrates the energy (heat) sucking power of a tropical system. To put it into perspective, think about how many ice cubes would be necessary to cool that much of the ocean by a degree. Someone a little smarter than me could probably convert that temeprature drop over that much water into an energy value (joules, calories, etc.). Think energy the equivalent of megatons of TNT.

[feederband]

The 5:00 to say should be interesting ,would be a understatement...

[InimanaChoogamaga]

If the Lbar model pans out crows will become extinct..

LOL

[Brent]

I dont like the LBAR even though she is moving that way this second.

4 now have a landfall in SC... ugh.

[Three Blind Mice]

Just stepped outside to stretch after the Panthers game.....it rained!!! Just a little...but around here we haven't seen much lately!

Come on rainbands!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

If the Lbar model pans out crows will become extinct..

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z SUN SEP 11 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 175SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.7N 76.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.4N 77.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.9N 77.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 41.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 76.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 255 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 76.0 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 978 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005

MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER
ON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 61 KT AND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 77 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 65 KT. BECAUSE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF UPWELLED COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...NO
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY 48-72 HOURS DUE TO THE ENERGIZING
EFFECT OF THE GULF STREAM AND A MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS.
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A LARGE INCREASE
IN STRENGTH...INTENSITY PREDICTIONS CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF 1
SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS AGAIN RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. COOLER
WATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING BY DAYS 4-5.

THE CENTER DRIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO FAR THE MOVEMENT IS STILL QUASI-STATIONARY.
OPHELIA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS. THE BLOCKING
HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO BE BROKEN UP IN 2-3 DAYS
BY A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ON A
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND
SHOWS LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE THE U.K. MET MOVES THE
SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN TAKES IT NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE KEEPS OPHELIA WELL
EAST OF THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK DURING THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS BUT THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS AND
NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD BASED ON SHIP...BUOY...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...DICTATE THE
ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS AT THIS TIME.


FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 31.5N 76.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 31.7N 76.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 31.9N 77.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 32.4N 77.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 32.9N 77.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 76.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 75.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 41.0N 70.0W 40 KT

[feederband]