East/Central Atl Waves,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
AROUND THE WAVE THAT IS TILTED FROM NE TO SW. THE WAVE IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR...BUT A SMALL
PATCH OF MOISTURE HAS CONVERGED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PRESUMED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
REGION FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 36W-42W. OTHER DEEPER CONVECTION IS
LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ.



The above is the 2 PM Discussion.

This wave is in a hostil enviroment as sal is covering a big chunk of the tropical atlantic as graphic below shows.





However you never know if suddenly conditions will improve in the atlantic in the next few days as the wet MJO filters into the atlantic basin.Let's watch it as it moves westward to see if it organizes or is going to be only another normal tropical wave.


SAT IMAGERY

[wxcrazytwo]

where is the MJO at, at this point...

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 18&start=0

The green lines represent the wet phase.

[SouthFloridawx]

[feederband]

How come this year I hear of SAL all the time....I don't ever remember it in past years . Is it just more evident this year or is it always there?

[MiamiensisWx]

How come this year I hear of SAL all the time....I don't ever remember it in past years . Is it just more evident this year or is it always there?

The SAL has been there throughout history. It is usually there for at least part of the year in some degree; however, it is only there for a small fraction of the year usually, not the entire year. The SAL has always existed, it's just that today - as we pay more attention to the tropics - we pay more attention to factors that influence developing tropical systems, including the SAL (which has, previously, not been studied that much until recently).

I think it is definately much more prevelant this year, though.

[cycloneye]

That is an excellent description of how the conditions are for this wave.

I am noticing that the ITCZ has a v shape in the wave axis.

[MiamiensisWx]

Unless conditions become more favorable and moister conditions prevail and the SAL backs off, I don't currently think there may be much chances for this wave. Plus, if it keeps moving westward or even slightly north of west it will run into South America and move over land.

Good description, southfloridawx2005, by the way!

[HUC]

It's a frequent occurence during summer,and this is in close relation with the position and the strenght of the Azores High.
This year,it appears to me(and i'am watching the weather since 1960 in the carribean),that this Sal is stronger in the begining of this month of september that i have seen before;that's means an Azores High more weak,and in a location that permited the N/est winds in it's eastern periphery to trail the storm dusts over the Sahara toward the south west,then west,over the atlantic.
But,this pattern should not persist one month more,and it's always possible,with all other" ingredients" presents,that this C/ Verde hurricane seasonproduce one or two major systems.
Never let your guard down...........

[MiamiensisWx]

I would be more concerned at the moment about the wave approaching the Bahamas, although this one may be still something to monitor.

[cycloneye]

It's a frequent occurence during summer,and this is in close relation with the position and the strenght of the Azores High.
This year,it appears to me(and i'am watching the weather since 1960 in the carribean),that this Sal is stronger in the begining of this month of september that i have seen before;that's means an Azores High more weak,and in a location that permited the N/est winds in it's eastern periphery to trail the storm dusts over the Sahara toward the south west,then west,over the atlantic.
But,this pattern should not persist one month more,and it's always possible,with all other" ingredients" presents,that this C/ Verde hurricane seasonproduce one or two major systems.
Never let your guard down...........

You nailed that my friend very well.Now let's see what occurs in the next few weeks as the wet phase of MJO comes into the Atlantic Basin.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[OURAGAN]

May be something to watch
Here is the 8.05 P.M discussion about this wave:

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
AROUND THE WAVE THAT IS TILTED FROM NE TO SW. THE WAVE IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR...BUT A SMALL
PATCH OF MOISTURE HAS CONVERGED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PRESUMED
MID-LEVEL CENTER. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
REGION FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 37W-44W. OTHER DEEPER CONVECTION IS
LOCATED NEAR THE ITCZ.

[krysof]

is that organized batch of convection above 40 N latitiude the Extra-tropical version of Nate or Maria

[wxmann_91]

is that organized batch of convection above 40 N latitiude the Extra-tropical version of Nate or Maria

Ex-Nate I think.

[cycloneye]

Convection has increased this morning compared to yesterday.Let's see if convection persists for 24 hours.

[caribepr]

It's a frequent occurence during summer,and this is in close relation with the position and the strenght of the Azores High.
This year,it appears to me(and i'am watching the weather since 1960 in the carribean),that this Sal is stronger in the begining of this month of september that i have seen before;that's means an Azores High more weak,and in a location that permited the N/est winds in it's eastern periphery to trail the storm dusts over the Sahara toward the south west,then west,over the atlantic.
But,this pattern should not persist one month more,and it's always possible,with all other" ingredients" presents,that this C/ Verde hurricane seasonproduce one or two major systems.
Never let your guard down...........

More dust, more intense temps. I keep asking the old people if this is a different year weather wise and to a person they agree they've never known it to be so hot, starting so early, or so much Sahara dust.
As said above, never let your guard down and here we are all shifting from very aware to extremely aware mode. Not based on anything out there at the moment, just the time of year and potential. Reflected in timings of leaving island for holidays, preps taken when leaving etc.

[cycloneye]

Wow a very hostil enviroment continues to surround the wave.An upper low is cuttoff around 18n-46w and dry air is in a good chunk of the tropical atlantic.

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 10N45W 16N44W 23N40W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS PUSHED BACK A BIT BASED ON A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OBSERVED IN METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY DRY SAHARAN AIR WITH A
SMALL PATCH OF EMBEDDED MOISTURE FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 40W-48W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT ALL DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM TO THE E NEAR THE ITCZ.


A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC NEAR 19N46W AND IS PUTTING MODERATE
SWLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W...PUSHING ALL THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FARTHER E.

2 PM Discussion about this wave.

[cycloneye]

No big changes in terms of a more favorable enviroment but you can see a little more moist air in the area and less dust.But still an upper low is NW of the wave causing moderate shear over it.