Hurricane Jova at CPAC

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005

A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 2259Z INDICATED RAINBANDS ARE BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE
APPEARANCE ON MICROWAVE MIGHT BE A BIT DECEIVING GIVEN THE MORE
DISHEVELED LOOK OF THE DEPRESSION ON SATELLITE WITH FADING
CONVECTION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE NOT YET AT
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH FROM ALL AGENCIES AND WE WOULD PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL RECEIVING CONSENSUS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BEFORE UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IS
IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFDL...
WHICH TURNS TEN-E INTO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS... AND THE SHIPS
MODEL WHICH NEVER GETS ABOVE 58 KT.

THE INITIAL SPEED HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW ABOUT 265/12. A
STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE EARLIER WITH THE GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AS IT MOVES THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD
MORE IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO FASTER SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NOGAPS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A MOTION MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 96 HOURS OR SO.

THE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E APPEARS TO BE
LESSENING TONIGHT. THIS IS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...FURTHER INCREASING
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.2N 124.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 14.1N 125.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 14.0N 127.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 14.0N 132.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 14.0N 137.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W 60 KT

[krysof]

This one may effect Hawaii in the long term on that track.

[Brent]

Sure is taking it's time about developing... *snooze*

[P.K.]

WTPZ45 KNHC 140832
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005

T.D. TEN-E IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LATEST DVORAK
T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...WHICH
SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS
DESPITE PERSISTENT SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE HELD AT 30 KT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
UNCLEAR...WITH THE GFDL DELAYING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL
BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN IT TURNS TEN-E INTO AN 81 KT HURRICANE...AND
SHIPS WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW BUT
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN HOLDING STEADY AT 96
AND 120 HOURS DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ONCE THE SYSTEM
CROSSES 140W.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 265/12. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE
WEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE GFS DEPICTING A WEAKER
SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THUS BEING STEERED MORE BY THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND EVER SO
SLIGHTLY SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND
CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE
BEYOND 72 HOURS AND DEVELOP A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 600-700 NM
NE OF HAWAII. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN THE SYSTEM
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SUGGESTS.

THE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E IS LESSENING AS THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE...FURTHER
INCREASING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 14.1N 125.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 127.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 13.9N 129.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 13.8N 132.3W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 13.7N 135.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 147.0W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...HOWEVER BOTH TAFB AND AFWA LOWERED THE T-NUMBER AT
12Z. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED...SO THE SYSTEM IS NOT
UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
10 KT THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STEADY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE BUOYANCY TERM IN THE SHIPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT A STABLE AIR MASS MAY IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS
AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF WEST...260/11. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE...WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BY DAYS 4-5...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF 140W. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 3...
WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME SLOWING OF
THE FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. THIS IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL/UKMET/
NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.9N 126.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 13.8N 127.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 13.6N 130.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 13.4N 133.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 13.3N 135.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 13.5N 140.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 144.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

409
WTPZ45 KNHC 142031
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION
FOUND IN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WINDS...BUT HOW GOOD THESE ARE
IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/10. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE DEEP-
LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HR...
TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. MOST MODELS SHOW
THIS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MOTION NOT SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS. AFTER 72 HR...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...
AND GFDN RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES A WESTWARD MOTION ALONG 12N. GIVEN THIS
SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE SLOWER MOTION
THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

OVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST
THAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO. THE GFDL
IS ALONE IN TAKING THE SYSTEM UP TO A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL. IF THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...IT WILL
LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 13.5N 128.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 13.3N 131.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 13.3N 133.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 13.3N 135.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 13.5N 140.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 147.0W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM TEN (EP102005) ON 20050915 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050915 0000 050915 1200 050916 0000 050916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.7N 127.6W 13.5N 129.8W 13.2N 132.2W 13.3N 135.0W
BAMM 13.7N 127.6W 13.6N 129.6W 13.3N 131.7W 13.1N 134.2W
LBAR 13.7N 127.6W 13.4N 129.7W 13.5N 132.3W 13.9N 135.3W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050917 0000 050918 0000 050919 0000 050920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 137.8W 14.2N 143.1W 15.4N 147.4W 16.4N 150.4W
BAMM 13.2N 136.7W 13.5N 141.2W 14.7N 144.8W 16.1N 147.7W
LBAR 14.2N 138.3W 14.4N 144.3W 13.9N 148.3W 14.8N 149.7W
SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 59KTS 57KTS
DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 59KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 127.6W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 125.6W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 123.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM



After a few days being a TD finnally it becomes a storm.

[Andrew92]

She took her good ol' sweet time, but here is Jova!

-Andrew92

[Scorpion]

None of these seem to be able to turn into majors. Is it possible that the EPAC will be without a major this year? Seems like it.

[Andrew92]

None of these seem to be able to turn into majors. Is it possible that the EPAC will be without a major this year? Seems like it.

There were no EPAC major hurricanes in 2003 either. This EPAC season has reminded me a lot of that year so far in fact.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

This storm may threat Hilo in the Hawaian islands as a west track is forecast.

[Andrew92]

This storm may threat Hilo in the Hawaian islands as a west track is forecast.

Might this be an analog for Jova? Again, from my analog year for the EPAC, 2003:



Though right now, I don't think it will be a Category 2, and even C1 is probably pushing it. But we'll see!

-Andrew92

[LAwxrgal]

Jova is an unusual name. What's the language of origin?

[cycloneye]

Here is Fefa in 1991 which impacted Hilo.Will Jova be like this track? No because already that one was more north in latitud at the longitud that Jova is now.

[senorpepr]

Jova is an unusual name. What's the language of origin?

It's a Hispanic name meaning majestic.

[cycloneye]

447
WTPZ45 KNHC 150243
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED
WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. IN ADDITION
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE
AGENCIES. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOVA
WITH THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEEP-
LAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 60-72
HRS...TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS IS
ONCE AGAIN A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND INDICATES A PROLONGED WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...
AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TURNING THE
SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AFTER 72 HR AND IS CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...THEN TURNS THE
SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL IS RATHER
AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS JOVA UP TO 80-85 KT...THEN KEEPS THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE DESPITE A FORECAST TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS. THUS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHIPS AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A
MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 72 HR BEFORE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
COOLER WATERS BRINGS ABOUT SOME WEAKENING.

FORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.7N 128.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 13.7N 129.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 13.6N 132.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 134.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 137.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W 55 KT

[hurricanefreak1988]

Haha, that track of Hurricane Fefa is pretty funny. She was stopped right on the goal line! It's like, "must... make it... to... Hawaii..." *poof*

[cycloneye]

The big question is will Hawaii will be threatened.

[hurricanefreak1988]

That would be interesting if it curved over Hawaii. You don't see that too often.

[LAwxrgal]

Wasn't Iniki the last storm to hit Hawaii?