Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Dick Pache]

A soaker

4:30 Storm rain totals showing greater than 15" in SE NC

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... kltx.shtml

[hicksta]

Reminds me of allison. So scary

[MiamiensisWx]

That rain will certainly cause problems with the harbor areas and around the docks by flooding the area.

[nequad]

NWS Newport weather radio service is back on-line. I know because I'm listening.

[pgoss11]

Just got home from work and I noticed most of the models 2 to 3 days out have adjusted the track to the left. I thought the storm would pass well off the coast of Nantucket but some have Ophelia closer now to the Cape and islands. Does anyone know why? I thought the trough was going too sweep Ophelia far out to sea before ever getting close to New England. Any info would be helpful. Thanks.

[Brent]

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... ALONG WITH NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY...INDICATE
OPHELIA'S INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 75 KT SINCE THE
INTENSITY UPDATE MENTIONED IN THE TCU PRODUCT THAT WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS NOTED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE UNUSUALLY LARGE 50 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT WITH A SHARPER EDGE NOTED IN THE INNER EYEWALL. A
SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
THE INSIDE OF THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS NOTED IN A FEW 77-79 KT WIND
SPIKES IN THE SFMR DATA...BUT THESE HIGHER VALUES WERE NOT FELT TO
BE INDICATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE EYEWALL WIND FIELD. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/06. RECON AND RADAR POSITION FIXES HAVE
BEEN COMING IN ON TRACK...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY
EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...WHILE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY
AREAS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. ANOTHER
DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS ALSO MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS
LARGE-SCALE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE...MINUS THE NORTHWARD-BIASED UKMET MODEL WHICH TAKES
OPHELIA ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 48 HOURS.

THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIA TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING CATEGORY 2 STATUS
...BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION INDUCE
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT...MUCH
COLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 20C LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF 41N
LATITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY ASSIST IN OPHELIA TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 34.1N 77.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 34.8N 76.4W 80 KT...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC
24HR VT 15/1800Z 35.3N 75.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 36.0N 74.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 37.5N 72.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 41.3N 65.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 18/1800Z 46.0N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/1800Z 49.0N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[truballer#1]

heard possible cat 2 hurricane

[ChaserUK]

have to admit looking at weathertap radar that eye is starting to contract now - could be a sign of strengthening.

[ThunderMate]

is it me or does it look like ophelia is taking on a more northerly component again after that east wobble. It looks as if she is as of right now west of the next forcast plot on sat. Im looking at this storm moving about over nags head or between Nags head and cape hatteras. any comments?

[pgoss11]

Looks like it to me

[txwatcher91]

She's tricky like her sister Katrina.

[NC George]

I think the irregular shaped eye makes it appear to be moving more N or E depending on which side the bulge currently is located.

[wxwatcher91]

I think the irregular shaped eye makes it appear to be moving more N or E depending on which side the bulge currently is located.

that's true. on the IR there is an area where there arent any clouds and that could be mistaken for the eye.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
^^^that's the loop... to get an understanding of what the eye is, click on "radar"

I think Ophelia is heading ENE... this can be supported also by the 6pm position estimate which moved Ophelia 0.1N and 0.2E

there are four senarios I think are possible from here on out... (see S2K disclaimer)
1 and very much the most likely) Ophelia continues ENE to NE motion for the next 12 hours, turns to the NE or NNE for another 24 to 36 hours and then turns back to the ENE and eventually E; senario would bring Ophelia to about the same distance off the New England coast the NHC forecast track.
2 and just a SLIGHT less probable than 1) Ophelia continues her NE to ENE motion and heads way out to sea giving New England a wave and laughing at the NWS for issuing special weather statements about her for southern New England.
3 ...about as probable as 2) Ophelia speeds up and turns northward striking southern New England.
4 and about as probable as getting 50 NSs this season) Ophelia continues her NE to ENE motion for the next 6-12 hours and turn SOUTH and does a loop around toward the west and continues west to go around the high currently near West Virginia.

[deguy50]

Statement as of 7:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2005



...Eyewall of Ophelia continues to batter coastal North Carolina...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the North Carolina
coast from Little River Inlet northward to the North
Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles
Light Virginia...including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point
Comfort.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in
the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within the
next 36 hr. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 7 PM EDT...2300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 34.2 north... longitude 76.9 west or about 35 miles
southwest of Cape Lookout North Carolina.

Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. The
center of Ophelia is expected to pass over or very near Cape
Lookout within the next several hours...and the northern eyewall
will continue to pass over coastal North Carolina and the outer
bands tonight and during much of tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds...located offshore in the eastern portion of
the eyewall...are near 85 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a
category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight
strengthening is possible overnight. Cape Lookout recently
reported a wind gust to 76 mph.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb...28.91 inches.

Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal
tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can
be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 9 to 11
feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers.

Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over portions of eastern North Carolina during the
next 24 hours...with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches
possible.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over northeastern North Carolina
tonight.

Repeating the 7 PM EDT position...34.2 N... 76.9 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 979 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 9 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$

[seahawkjd]

I noticed that the latest models shifted to the left somewhat. I also noticed our local forcast added a good 15 20 mph to the winds for tonight and tommorow for us near the nc va border.

[krysof]

New England and South and Southeast mid atlantic should still monitor Ophelia especially since it's quite a large hurricane and that the models are moving it further westward.

[huricanwatcher]

New England and South and Southeast mid atlantic should still monitor Ophelia especially since it's quite a large hurricane and that the models are moving it further westward.

please show me the models that have it going more westward...

[krysof]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html


The gfdl and gfs have moved it more westward if you compare to this morning's model guidance.

[shaggy]

Bobby Deskins a local TV met just recorded a 96.4mph gust in morehead city which is getting hammered tonight.

Here in greenville its just been breezy no big gust at all but have had plenty of rain around 4.5 inches at my house!

[huricanwatcher]

Bobby Deskins a local TV met just recorded a 96.4mph gust in morehead city which is getting hammered tonight.

Here in greenville its just been breezy no big gust at all but have had plenty of rain around 4.5 inches at my house!

bout same here, pool overflowing, rc track is a lake... light breeze blowing (wondering to self, why did schools close early and plan on opening late?)