Blown_away wrote:Amateur Prediction: Being it's mid September, climatolgy says it won't make it across the Caribbean to the Gulf. If this develops it will have potential to be a FL or Carolina player. Odds are recurvature before CONUS landfall. Unfortunatley it will likely crash into Dom/Haiti or Cuba on its way poleward, hopefully not as a significant storm. Based on discussion I've been reading from the expert's, it seems the conditions are good for development. The low latitude location, the models so far, and potential for significant development kind of reminds me of David.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
My take on climo is that it would have its highest chance of hitting the U.S. if it does go into the Caribbean moving generally on a WNW heading.
The danger to the U.S. would be heightened if this system is first designated a TD between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. It would then likely take ~7-10 days after forming to hit the U.S. IF it were to do so. I found TEN storms that formed AFTER 9/14 in that location that later hit the U.S. since 1851. Six of these ten hit the Gulf coast (FIVE of these six hit western FL and FOUR of these six as a cat. 3+). Regarding the other four, one skirted SE FL (T.S.), two hit NC ( major Hazel as well as a T.S.), and one hit ME (extratropical). Four of these five major hits were at the Gulf coast (three for W. FL or FL Panhandle and one LA) while one hit near the NC/SC border (Hazel).
I know history is a great tool. It was just my opinion of how crazy this season has been so far.
Ehh.. sorry.. it happens that my name is Felipe, and well ..Phillppe will be my french cousin.
