sma10 wrote:Jim Hughes wrote:sma10 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Will 2005 have two more names to add to the record very soon?
Yes. And the people who boldly predicted a dead 2nd half of season with a total of 14 or so storms will bust badly.
The winner may lie in between both the bold and conservative. There could easily be two losers because the experts who boldy predicted 20/10/6 may also miss the totals by just as much when you look at the intensity level and not just the storm totals.
August's NTC activity was about 16% below what Gray had been calling for for the month of August even with Katrina being a major hurricane. Mind you I do not think that that is to bad but lets see what September does for the NTC totals.
The hurricane to named storm percentage still is about the same with August being 40 %. We would need to see 15 more formations at the same ratio to end up with ten hurricanes...six intense....still possible though but it will be tough.
Jim
To reach the EXACT figures of 20/10/6 we must finish the season from here on: 8/6/3. I agree that would be tough to do, but far from impossible. If I were a betting man, however, I would certainly wager that we will end up far closer to 20 total named storms than 14.
I believe I said it would be possibe also but 8/6/3 would go against the grain of what we have seen since July. Only two of the past seven have made hurricane status. But those that do seem to intensify quite nicely.
I know we are entering the peak but I firmly believe in the space weather connection. Especially in relation to these stronger hurricanes and I do not forsee any extreme eruptional patterns for the next 3-5 days on the visible side but I could be wrong.
The backside of the sun is extremely active right now and we have seen some energetic particle increases because of these eruptions. These increases are not of the norm during backside events but they can occur during extreme eruptional events.
I think the recent stronger tropical wave action increase is related to these eruptions /particle increases. The overall space weather activity has picked up the prior 48-72 hours just like it had before Katrina took off. Geomagnetic activity has also been on the rise.
The big difference during the next several days will be the location of these eruptions. The sunspot region where these eruptions are most likely originating from, is rotating towards dead center on the backside. So it will be less likely to cause any increased space weather from here on out.
Now in 5-7 days it could be a much different story when it approaches the eastern limb of the sun as it rotates towards us. The magnetic field vectors, along with it's quadrant location, should favor tropical enhancement. Of course the eruption pattern may diminish if the region does not stay magnetically complexed. It is very hard for a sunspot region to sustain it's magnetic complexity when continual strong flaring /eruptions occur.
Sort of like a strong front loosing it's steam after increased thunderstorm activity. The weather on the sun is similar to here on earth and most would be surprised if they read up on it. Strong flaring is much like tornadic activity. Flares occur along inversion lines of different magnetic polarities. Much like tornadoes occur near different air masses. Twisting etc...the same...
Jim
