Texas Safe Again....Perfect Timing with Ridge

KatDaddy · #1 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 5:38 am

The perfect timing continues. Another tropical threat and the ridge strengthens just in time to protect the Upper TX Coast thankfully.

#2 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:02 am

KatDaddy wrote:The perfect timing continues. Another tropical threat and the ridge strengthens just in time to protect the Upper TX Coast thankfully.

you are way to quick to make that prediction. for someone with over 900 posts this board expects more.

KatDaddy · #3 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 6:30 am

Its just the pattern we have seen all Summer. Just when GOM developement has occurred this year the ridge has built in to protect the Upper TX Coast. The models continue to show the ridge.

#4 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:05 am

KatDaddy wrote:Its just the pattern we have seen all Summer. Just when GOM developement has occurred this year the ridge has built in to protect the Upper TX Coast. The models continue to show the ridge.

High pressure, dry air, and clear skies are what were predicted by the New Orleans NWS office in their AFD long range forecast five days before Katrina put the same office out of commission.

Models. Nuff said.

#5 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:14 am

I would be reluctant to bank on the GFS re: the strength of a ridge 5 days from now. We're not even sure yet where 96L will form a center, let alone future movement.

I'm gonna watch this one closely ...

#6 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:30 am

BayouVenteux wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:Its just the pattern we have seen all Summer. Just when GOM developement has occurred this year the ridge has built in to protect the Upper TX Coast. The models continue to show the ridge.

High pressure, dry air, and clear skies are what were predicted by the New Orleans NWS office in their AFD long range forecast five days before Katrina put the same office out of commission.

Models. Nuff said.

Amen Bayou, I could easily see this system stalling in the S Fla'/ N Cuba area as it decides which direction to head.

KatDaddy · #7 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:42 am

Needless to say there is much to watch over the next 3 weeks. I feel we are safe from Invest 96L but there are more tropical waves and disturbances as the new burst of tropical activity begins. Not saying Texas will be safe from any other tropical systems after 96L.

perk · #8 Postby **perk** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:43 am

Kattdaddy even though you may end up being right on this one, that's a pretty bold statement to make 5 or 6 days out. All that high has to do is move a little to the east or west like it did with Katrina. You've been around this board way too long to jump the gun like this.

#9 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:45 am

KatDaddy wrote:Its just the pattern we have seen all Summer. Just when GOM developement has occurred this year the ridge has built in to protect the Upper TX Coast. The models continue to show the ridge.

past performance is not a predictor of future results.

#10 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:49 am

jlauderdal wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:Its just the pattern we have seen all Summer. Just when GOM developement has occurred this year the ridge has built in to protect the Upper TX Coast. The models continue to show the ridge.

past performance is not a predictor of future results.

Especially this season. I wouldn't rule anything out regardless of what the models say.

KatDaddy · #11 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 7:49 am

Very true Perk but this time I will go for it. It is a bold statement to make being late in the Summer as the Westerlies begin to influence the N GOM. Sometimes you have to make a forecast. So we shall see what occurs over the next 6 days.

Also I know everyone will be more than happy to cook up a special crow dish just for me should I be wrong

.......I really think TX is safe however.

vaffie · #12 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:55 am

I also really don't think Texas is safe at all. The models are not predicting major hurricanes spinning around the Atlantic, but that's what we all know might happen. Take one example of how the models might change--this is just speculative. Suppose we have a major hurricane east of Cancun moving west-northwest and a second one north of Puerto Rico. moving west Right now, the models say that a strong high pressure will be centered in SE Texas, but in reality if there was that second powerful hurricane north of Puerto Rico moving west (as the NHC predicts on their 72 hour surface forecast), that High will actually move east far faster than the models say--to balance out the two hurricanes, and might settle as far east as the panhandle of Florida. If that happened, not only would Texas not be saved, hurricane 2 could even start becoming a threat to the same area four days later. They would become "aclimatic" storms, true, but no one would even care. Besides, even at the beginning of the year, it was commented that years with hot, dry summers in Texas, like we've had have more landfalling hurricanes than wet years... I would not rule anything out. Climatology is just an average. There are constantly weather events that outrun the average in one way or another. Cross our fingers and hope that you're right, but on Tuesday or Wednesday, I may be buying water and filling up on gas just in case. Good luck to everyone, and thank you everyone for all your posts, especially KatDaddy. I always like reading your posts.

KatDaddy · #13 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 8:58 am

Point well taken vaffie. I hope I am correct. We do not need a hurricane.
I am still sticking to my guns. We shall see.

Website · #14 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:28 am

Everyone thought Katrina wouldn't go SW across Florida either...

:wink:

Johnny · #15 Postby **Johnny** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:37 am

From the NWS in Houston/Galveston this morning......

SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY LONGER. H5 SPAGHETTI MAPS DON'T SHOW ANY SIGNS OF A
PATTERN CHANGE UNTIL THE 25TH AT THE EARLIEST.

Katdaddy, I agree with you. If for some odd reason this ridge retreats or weakens then we do need to watch out but with the confidence of this not happening coming out of the NWS office, I don't think that is very likely. I also believe that this will be our last shot of getting something tropical this year. After this ridge finally weakens we will probably see our first decent cool front come down...and then they will continue to come on down.

hicksta · #16 Postby **hicksta** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 9:54 am

Yall need to realize stuff changes really quickly...

cajungal · #17 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:26 am

KatDaddy wrote:Its just the pattern we have seen all Summer. Just when GOM developement has occurred this year the ridge has built in to protect the Upper TX Coast. The models continue to show the ridge.

We used to have the same luck for Louisiana. And looks like our luck ran out, well for my neighbors in New Orleans just to my east. We were mostly spared here again in Terrebonne Parish.

ameriwx2003 · #18 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:40 am

Well the latest 06Z GFDL has to be of some concern..Note the Northwest turn toward the end of the run. Of course its just one run and it was to far west with Ohelia also.. Lets see if this run shows a trend or will the GFDL go to a more west to W/SW track in future runs like the other models.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05091713

Galvestongirl · #19 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:46 am

KatDaddy wrote:Its just the pattern we have seen all Summer. Just when GOM developement has occurred this year the ridge has built in to protect the Upper TX Coast. The models continue to show the ridge.

it is a pattern we have seen for many summers. Unless a rare one sneeks through, we usualy dont get them from here on out.

perk · #20 Postby **perk** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 10:58 am

Johnny with all due respect to the Galveston NWS i have read their discussions off and on for years and they are about as inconsistent as it gets.The Corpus Christi NWS is a much better outfit.

Texas Safe Again....Perfect Timing with Ridge

Texas Safe Again....Perfect Timing with Ridge

Re: Texas Safe Again....Perfect Timing with Ridge

Who is online