It was right about Katrina now the CMC shows a big one again

Jim Cantore · #1 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:52 am

Well 144 hours ahead of Katrina it put a huge hurricane in the gulf. Now it turns TD 17 into a monster but good news is it keeps it a fish. What do you think? will this shape into a monster like this?

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HurricaneGirl · #2 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:57 am

Holy Crap! :eek:

Jim Cantore · #3 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:59 am

That will seriously kick up the waves on the east coast and if it gets Bermuda..... well lets not think about that since thats still well ahead of us and likely to change.

I'm more concerned with that other feature in northern mexico

#4 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 11:59 am

Dont believe it for a second!!! This cane is larger than both Katrina and Floyd!!! Will 17 make cane status yes, but not this beast I hope. I will stay in denial to save my sanity.

Jim Cantore · #5 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:00 pm

If that does happen (100-1 In mt opinion which is still a chance) We better hope it dont hit anything

but 99% thats wrong

apocalypt-flyer · #6 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:01 pm

I hope it will not be such a monster but I'm rather positive that this one will be a Major Cane next week by Friday at the latest as conditions are rather conducive for strengthening with sow shear and SSTs of 28-30° ahead.

#7 Postby **jasons2k** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:07 pm

What's concerning about the CMC is that early on, it consistently showed Katrina-to-be headed towards TX, but it was just a tad south and she hit LA instead.

Now it's consistently showing a Mexico hit and if it has the same bias as before, and it hits a bit further north, could be TX. :eek:

#8 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:08 pm

Could be...you're the only ones not to get it yet this year.

Derecho · #9 Postby **Derecho** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:11 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Well 144 hours ahead of Katrina it put a huge hurricane in the gulf.

Just looked at my archive for Katrina for the CMC with Stormtrakker and as usual the Canadian had one of the largest track errors for Katrina for any model, and the Canadian was one of the last models to give up on an up-the-East-Coast track for Katrina.

The Canadian was also by far the LAST global model to come into line with a Louisiana/MS hit; it was clinging to a landfall in FL or AL for Katrina right up until the last moment.

I don't know what you mean by "144 hours ahead of Katrina"...ahead of landfall in LA? Ahead of advisories starting?

Any way you slice it the Canadian was among the worst Katrina models; which is typical of it's largely worthless nature.

Not certain why people seem to want to convince themselves it's a useful model .

Jim Cantore · #10 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:11 pm

New Jersey Hasnt got hit

then again we almost never do

wxmann_91 · #11 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:13 pm

Derecho wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:Well 144 hours ahead of Katrina it put a huge hurricane in the gulf.

Just looked at my archive for Katrina for the CMC with Stormtrakker and as usual the Canadian had one of the largest track errors for Katrina for any model, and the Canadian was one of the last models to give up on an up-the-East-Coast track for Katrina.

I don't know what you mean by "144 hours ahead of Katrina"...ahead of landfall in LA? Ahead of advisories starting?

Any way you slice it the Canadian was among the worst Katrina models; which is typical of it's largely worthless nature.

Not certain why people seem to want to convince themselves it's a useful model .

There is no such thing as a useless model, and I think that Hurricane Floyd meant that the CMC predicted that there would be a huge hurricane in the Gulf 144 hr ahead.

#12 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 12:13 pm

Not so fast. In 1903 we got hit by a Category 1 hurricane, and on September 3rd, 1821, we got hit by a Category 4 hurricane moving up the coast. If it were to happen today, we'd be gone :eek:

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:28 pm

Hurricanehink wrote:Not so fast. In 1903 we got hit by a Category 1 hurricane, and on September 3rd, 1821, we got hit by a Category 4 hurricane moving up the coast. If it were to happen today, we'd be gone

Well...Ill say, I think Ophelia would have you from a "CAT 4"

wxmann_91 · #14 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 1:42 pm

Before Katrina this is what the CMC predicted:

It was right about Katrina now the CMC shows a big one again

It was right about Katrina now the CMC shows a big one again

Re: It was right about Katrina now the CMC shows a big one a

Re: It was right about Katrina now the CMC shows a big one a

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