Flakeys wrote:I wonder if Bill Kamall has access to the NHC in prison?
hehehehe.....sigh....he was the 2nd best local met we had imo.
Norcorss Alert
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beachbum_al
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beachbum_al
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beachbum_al
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I wasn't here then, but friends of mine were and they say that he's the only met they'll trust now because of it.-
StormFury
Norcross alert (5:35 PM EDT)
Alright, I am going to try to write word for word what Brian Norcross had to say about Tropical Storm Rita. Here it is...
"All of South Florida will feel some effect of Rita. I would not be surprised to see a northward shift in the next updated track. This is especially plausible if the NHC relocates the center the of Rita where the Mid Level Circulation is, at about 23 North. There appears to be more convection wrapped around the Mid Level Circulation and the relocation of Rita's eye is possible since this storm is still in its developing stages. Even more, unlike with Katrina, South Florida will be on the northern side of the storm, making it very possible that hurricane watches will be extended northward."
This makes sense to me, especially because the current NHC forecast is relying on the data of faulty computer models (which attribute Rita's center of circulation at the poorly defined low level circulation). If the center is at 23 North, expect a shift north. Derek Ortt's 11 AM advisory, written by Cangliosa, distinctly outlined this possibility and placed Rita's future track through the middle keys instead of the Florida Straits. My guess on why Ortt has shifted his 5 PM track to the south is because he wanted to conform to the NHC's advisory. No offense to Mr. Ortt or the national hurricane center, but they were WRONG with Katrina's track in regards to South Florida. The NHC and Ortt kept reiterating that the Palm Beach/Broward County line was at the highest risk of landfall. However, Brian Norcross pointed out that a move to the WSW into Miami-Dade county was very possible.
If anything, I would say to trust Brian Norcross!
"All of South Florida will feel some effect of Rita. I would not be surprised to see a northward shift in the next updated track. This is especially plausible if the NHC relocates the center the of Rita where the Mid Level Circulation is, at about 23 North. There appears to be more convection wrapped around the Mid Level Circulation and the relocation of Rita's eye is possible since this storm is still in its developing stages. Even more, unlike with Katrina, South Florida will be on the northern side of the storm, making it very possible that hurricane watches will be extended northward."
This makes sense to me, especially because the current NHC forecast is relying on the data of faulty computer models (which attribute Rita's center of circulation at the poorly defined low level circulation). If the center is at 23 North, expect a shift north. Derek Ortt's 11 AM advisory, written by Cangliosa, distinctly outlined this possibility and placed Rita's future track through the middle keys instead of the Florida Straits. My guess on why Ortt has shifted his 5 PM track to the south is because he wanted to conform to the NHC's advisory. No offense to Mr. Ortt or the national hurricane center, but they were WRONG with Katrina's track in regards to South Florida. The NHC and Ortt kept reiterating that the Palm Beach/Broward County line was at the highest risk of landfall. However, Brian Norcross pointed out that a move to the WSW into Miami-Dade county was very possible.
If anything, I would say to trust Brian Norcross!
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HeatherAKC
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HeatherAKC
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tracyswfla
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ivanhater wrote:you can watch bryan here at 11 10 central
http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/viewerpa ... egory_ID=5
I was wondering if they would stream. Thanks!
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Derek Ortt
actually, the NWHHC forecast tracks had Katrina making landfall consistently at the Dade/Broward Line, where it did, at 26.0N
The slight left shift was due to the center not being as far north as we thought that 12Z. Cangialosi has since shifted back left. However, our forecasts are 100% independent of NHC and we do not make our track at all based upon theirs
The slight left shift was due to the center not being as far north as we thought that 12Z. Cangialosi has since shifted back left. However, our forecasts are 100% independent of NHC and we do not make our track at all based upon theirs
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