ANYONE GOT 12Z MODELS YET

[jwayne]

Freeport still looking like a good spot for landfall. Well, good as in a good place to call landfall.

freeport does seem to have a bullseye on it. storm headed north at 15 hitting freeport as cat 4 would be absolute disaster for houston/galveston. analogy from katrina: houston/galveston geographically would be like mississippi coast (not saying that kind of damage)

Sometimes I get a bit upset of all the Galveston/Houston talk...

People forget that there is a fairly significant amount of people in the Brazoria area. And a cat4 into Freeport would be nothing less of a disaster for those of us that live down here..

Not picking at you jwayne, but don't forget about us down here..

Scott

sorry, scott. To me, it's a given that freeport is toast with a direct hit of a cat 4.

[dwg71]

I think we will see shifts as far East as NOLA and back in the next 3-4 days. Still a long way out

You could be right, but with her forward speed not seeming to budge, I think your eastern shifts might be overwith. Southern movement and back is highly possible as the models get a grasp on her speed. We are about to enter into the 3 day out area which we can all agree the models do pretty well with.

cheers,
loon

agreed, this is not a LA storm. You will see tracks shift further and further south and west if forward speed and heading keep.

Brownsville to Matagorda Bay seems very reasonable. The Global models are south of most of the tropical models.

[deltadog03]

euro, has the same look the past 2 runs...12z won't be out for a couple of hours...well, what concerns me is that usually the euro is either dead on or too far west sometimes...so, we will see....actually, IF***** she made landfall based on the current NHC track...galveston and houston would get the RFQ....

[deltadog03]

ok, dwg...I know you are entiled to your own opinion....We CAN'T say that its not anyones storm...The models all have intialized with the faster movement. I know this situation is concerning for everyone...from the FL keys to TX...Please don't make comments like that. We DON'T know for sure where this is going. I would really weigh heavy on the EURO. It does have a good track record.

[tw861]

The thing is if Landfall occurs as far south as Matagorda but the storm is moving NNW at that time, Houston is still in a world of hurt. Where the center crosses the coast is only a point, the worst of the weather will be north and east of that. Where I live tornados in the feeder bands scare me a lot more than where that eye crosses the coast. Now if landfall is near Freeport wind damage will be much worse in the Houston metro area.

Houston is far from being out of the woods even with landfall a little further south, I would be carefull about sounding the all clear this soon. The GFS has been shifting north and south each run but still generally staying between Port Arthur and Corpus. That is consistant enough for me to say that the threat is real.

[Ivanhater]

dwg, saying this is not a LA storm is uncalled for, why not just take the cone off of them then? they are WELL within the cone...please do everyone a favor and stop with those dumb comments

[x-y-no]

euro, has the same look the past 2 runs...12z won't be out for a couple of hours...well, what concerns me is that usually the euro is either dead on or too far west sometimes...so, we will see....actually, IF***** she made landfall based on the current NHC track...galveston and houston would get the RFQ....

Shame on me for not checking the Euro before posting ...

You're right, it has a very similar track to the GFS - that lends a lot of credence to the idea, since as you say the euro has a leftward bias in situations like this.

[loon]

which one is the euro? on the map that was posted in this thread? or does it say EURO and I'm just blind...

[HouTXmetro]

euro, has the same look the past 2 runs...12z won't be out for a couple of hours...well, what concerns me is that usually the euro is either dead on or too far west sometimes...so, we will see....actually, IF***** she made landfall based on the current NHC track...galveston and houston would get the RFQ....

Shame on me for not checking the Euro before posting ...

You're right, it has a very similar track to the GFS - that lends a lot of credence to the idea, since as you say the euro has a leftward bias in situations like this.

Which model is the EURO?

[deltadog03]

the Euro is not posted on that board...

here is the 00z run...

[loon]

AH HA! I'm not blind then! Good deal!

cheers,
loon

[dwg71]

dwg, saying this is not a LA storm is uncalled for, why not just take the cone off of them then? they are WELL within the cone...please do everyone a favor and stop with those dumb comments

Not going to get into an arguement. It was just my opinion. The only cone I give credence to is the 72 Hour one. Lets see how the 11AM cone looks, but they are not in this cone at this time.

[Ivanhater]

dwg, saying this is not a LA storm is uncalled for, why not just take the cone off of them then? they are WELL within the cone...please do everyone a favor and stop with those dumb comments

Not going to get into an arguement. It was just my opinion. The only cone I give credence to is the 72 Hour one. Lets see how the 11AM cone looks, but they are not in this cone at this time.

so if you dont even trust the 5 day cone because its to far out, then why are you saying lousiana wont get hit...makes no sense

[tw861]

I think we will see shifts as far East as NOLA and back in the next 3-4 days. Still a long way out

You could be right, but with her forward speed not seeming to budge, I think your eastern shifts might be overwith. Southern movement and back is highly possible as the models get a grasp on her speed. We are about to enter into the 3 day out area which we can all agree the models do pretty well with.

cheers,
loon

agreed, this is not a LA storm. You will see tracks shift further and further south and west if forward speed and heading keep.

Brownsville to Matagorda Bay seems very reasonable. The Global models are south of most of the tropical models.

All of the globals I have looked at are between Matagorda and Galveston:

06z GFS.....Matagorda
06z GFDL...Freeport (not a global)
00z ECWMF..Freeport
00z UKMET...Matagorda
00z FSU MM5..Matagorda

All moving basically NNW after landfall.

[TS Zack]

I don't think we will see a big shift like we saw with Katrina. That just doesn't happen very often.

Everyone must watch this in the Central and Western Gulf because your still arond 3-4days out. Models can still shift quite a bit.

Loon enjoy the storm. If you get a Cat 4, it is No Fun Afterwards. No Power, No Water, House Damage, Mold.. Uhhh just thinking about it makes me sick. Stay Away From New Orleans!!!

[PTrackerLA]

I feel alot better in Louisiana now. The eastern extent of the cone is now well west of New Orleans and I'll probably be out of the cone later today. Barring no big model swings eastward by the end of today I'll be ready to sound the all clear for Louisiana.

[mahmoo]

I agree with you Tracker. I was a bit nervous yesterday but think we're gonna luck out this time.

[loon]

I don't think we will see a big shift like we saw with Katrina. That just doesn't happen very often.

Everyone must watch this in the Central and Western Gulf because your still arond 3-4days out. Models can still shift quite a bit.

Loon enjoy the storm. If you get a Cat 4, it is No Fun Afterwards. No Power, No Water, House Damage, Mold.. Uhhh just thinking about it makes me sick. Stay Away From New Orleans!!!

Heh, umm, okay, I guess I will. If you were talking about my earlier comment, I was simply saying I wasn't blind looking at the models as the EURO model wasn't on there.

[cajungal]

Yeah, I feel a lot better too. Terrebonne Parish is already out the cone as of 11 a.m. All the models are clustered on Texas. I don't expect any dramatic shift like with Katrina. My gut feeling is Galveston-Corpus Christi. My area should not get much from Rita at all. Maybe just some stray rain bands. I guess it is just more heat and humidity for us here. But, it is better than getting a hurricane and being stuck sweltering in the heat with no power and possible damages.

[Ivanhater]

i dont think any part of lousiana was taking out of the cone since last advisory