Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[stormy1959]

Getting a heavy downpour as I drove my daughter to UCF. Lots of soaked college students this morning.

[wxwatcher2]

We could use a lot more rain in Central Florida!!!

Unfortunately Rita is too far to our South to do us any good.

[CronkPSU]

it has been pouring over here in gotha(western orlando) the past hour and a half

[cycloneye]

I understand that Texas needs rain badly and Rita will provide plenty of that although not a pleasant thing as it makes landfall but after the landfall rains will be welcomed in that state right David and Kelly?

[InimanaChoogamaga]

I liked Avila's last line in the 11am discussion. "For those who follow the skinny black line it's good to remember the track uncertainty increases in the 3-5 day time frame".

Yes, that is a classic line

[deltadog03]

yeah, rainfall will be much welcomed here in the big D....I just looked at the vis and she has or is getting the buzz saw look....outflow is much much better

[Dave C]

Either the radar is not scanning properly or Rita's north eyewall has really diminished, good news for Key West if that persists. Looks like dry air may have moved in on east side of system.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/D ... kbyx.shtml

[inotherwords]

Not a drop here yet but gusty winds and a lot of clouds zooming by overhead. Sun's still out for the most part. Occasional gusts up to maybe 20 kts. and that's it.

[baitism]

Either the radar is not scanning properly or Rita's north eyewall has really diminished, good news for Key West if that persists. Looks like dry air may have moved in on east side of system.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/D ... kbyx.shtml

It looks to be filling in quite quickly now. With the pressure recon is reporting and the water temps its in this hurricane should get its act together.

[jasons2k]

I understand that Texas needs rain badly and Rita will provide plenty of that although not a pleasant thing as it makes landfall but after the landfall rains will be welcomed in that state right David and Kelly?

We need the rain, but Texas is very prone to inland flooding, especially in the Hill Country area. I don't know if anyone has mentioned this yet, but the Texas Hill Country has had some notorious flooding after tropical cyclones. The soil is pure limestone rock and the water has no place to go but into rivers and streams.

[THead]

Haven't had time to read the whole thread, so sorry if this has been mentioned, but Rita couldn't have picked a better track for herself, as Brian Norcross just said, 'threading the needle' between s. fla. and cuba. Looks like she's getting her core together a bit, and on her way to major status soon. Just hope she doesn't go ballistic in the gulf. Good luck to all in the path.

[cjrciadt]

Pressure to 979mb and 100mph for the 2pm advisory!!!!!!!!!!1

[CronkPSU]

wow and we didn't have one bombing out post from 9 AM til now???? we all should be censored for that

30 mph in 4 hours...pretty impressive

[Florida_TSR]

Pressure down to 978. That's 4 mb in 3 hours. If this continues over 24 hours that would be close to "bombing" out - about another 32 mb drop. Storm is entering the same environment to that of Katrina. This deserves a little We could see a 940 mb storm tomorrow!

[vaffie]

You know, as a native Houstonian, I am naturally looking carefully to see if there is any reason to think that Rita will hit us directly, and so I was looking at the last couple hours of satellite pictures and noted that compared to the forecast positions she is ever so slightly north of them. The last 12Z model run put her movement at 279 degrees, and the official forecast for the next 48 hours puts her at 275 degrees, whereas the last two hours put her at approximately 278 degrees. I know it's splitting hairs, but you can look at it yourself and calculate the same thing. It could be just wobbles, that's true, it might be meaningless, but nevertheless, that's what I estimate it's done for two hours. The reason why I was interested in looking at this was because the BAMD model (which is at 280 degrees) has a consistently more northerly track than all the others and heads right into Houston, and considering that it factors in the higher atmosphere winds vs the other models (which is why it was so good with Katrina), which a big storm like this will be pushed more by, any track slightly north of the official forecast track is of concern. Anyway, I just took a hard exam, I have a headache, and all my math could be completely worthless, so please no one get upset with me now! I'm off to bed.
-vaffie

[milankovitch]

Radar is looking more impressive within the last hour really starting to wrap around the eye.

[dwg71]

You know, as a native Houstonian, I am naturally looking carefully to see if there is any reason to think that Rita will hit us directly, and so I was looking at the last couple hours of satellite pictures and noted that compared to the forecast positions she is ever so slightly north of them. The last 12Z model run put her movement at 279 degrees, and the official forecast for the next 48 hours puts her at 275 degrees, whereas the last two hours put her at approximately 278 degrees. I know it's splitting hairs, but you can look at it yourself and calculate the same thing. It could be just wobbles, that's true, it might be meaningless, but nevertheless, that's what I estimate it's done for two hours. The reason why I was interested in looking at this was because the BAMD model (which is at 280 degrees) has a consistently more northerly track than all the others and heads right into Houston, and considering that it factors in the higher atmosphere winds vs the other models (which is why it was so good with Katrina), which a big storm like this will be pushed more by, any track slightly north of the official forecast track is of concern. Anyway, I just took a hard exam, I have a headache, and all my math could be completely worthless, so please no one get upset with me now! I'm off to bed.
-vaffie

Rita is heading Due west, actually the last two recon fixes have her just south of due west.

All the models are north of NHC track and storm is just slightly south of the track now.

The UKMET and GFDL both have Matagorda Bay. So does NHC, those two models have been pretty accurate.

[txwatcher91]

Rita is huge

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _wind.html

[oneness]

The eye-wall and core have suddenly started to look more fierce all around it. Looks like she's powering up.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

[cjrciadt]

Rita is huge

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _wind.html

Typhoon Tip like wind band.