99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[KatDaddy]

Yeah I know!! This is very insane and a possibilty. I guess I am leaving the other storm panels up until Sunday and re-evalute.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEANSEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES
EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$


I think the NHC expects it to be in the Northwest Caribbean, so a more WNW to NW track is more likely now.

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND SUPPORTING
UP TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEVERAL SUBTLE EASTERLY EDDIES APPEAR SET TO AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE
POPS. /29

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING OVER NW FL PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS NEAR
THE FL BIG BEND. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
MS/AL AND NW FL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. DEEP DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE UPPER
DYNAMICS MOVE OFF...SO DO NOT EXPECT SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WINDS.
SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHES IT SOUTH TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. FRONT MOVES TO OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF BEFORE LOSING ITS UPPER PUSH AND STALLING. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF...WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /16

[KatDaddy]

Accu-weather does mention it:

A tropical wave along 75 west, south of 20 north is moving west at
10-15 knots Tuesday morning; this general motion will continue for the next few days. By later Thursday, the wave will be in the northwestern Caribbean, with atmospheric conditions favorable for development as long as a trough expected to be in the area remains far enough to the north, over the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures remain very warm in the northwestern Caribbean, which would also aid in development.

[mahicks]

i meant further out !with this strong ridge suppose to build i think everything in the atlantic has to be watched! does anyone have model links of what might be happening in the next 7-10 days in the atlantic?

I've seen you ask this many times in many different threads....Here is a link that you can use all you want to.

Just Click on it...


http://weather.net-waves.com/tropics.php


Then click on "Can I see the Global Models Please" link


Or...If you'd just like to see the model PLOTS for the storm...Click on "Just Show me the NHC models" Then pick which storm you want...In this case it would be 99 Invest....

Happy surfing.

[SunnyThoughts]

OK... so let me get this straight. We have an area in the gulf, either the tail end of a front/piece of Rita that is trying to form an area of low pressure (or already has) then we have 99l also coming into the gulf possibly later in the week, depending on direction of movement. How might these 2 low's interact with each other?

[Ivanhater]

OK... so let me get this straight. We have an area in the gulf, either the tail end of a front/piece of Rita that is trying to form an area of low pressure (or already has) then we have 99l also coming into the gulf possibly later in the week, depending on direction of movement. How might these 2 low's interact with each other?

hey sunny, its ivan from the chatroom, ya there are 2 lows....not sure how they will react, but i think they have the weak low in the gulf now moving west

[JamesFromMaine2]

ok so Recon is going out there tomorrow?

[skysummit]

ok so Recon is going out there tomorrow?

Look 6 posts above yours.

[Windy]

ok so Recon is going out there tomorrow?

Maybe.

[cycloneye]

ok so Recon is going out there tomorrow?

Tentative tommorow afternoon at 2 PM.

NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1230 PM EDT TUE 27 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-122

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA CENTRAL CARRIBEAN
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 28/1800Z A. 29/0500Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 28/1345Z C. 29/0000Z
D. 17N AND 80W D. 18N AND 81.5W
E. 28/1700-2300Z E. 29/0400-0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT 29/18Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[JamesFromMaine2]

2:05pm tropical weather Discussion:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF CUBA WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY
42058 SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH
WLY WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED...THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ENHANCED BY DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N
SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE
SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 74W-78W. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

[thermos]

Starting to look more and more like an Alpha Beta (but hopefully not gamma) year.

[SouthFloridawx]

they are underestimating the cold front



I have been watching the loops and look at all that dry air blasting into the GOM.

[SouthFloridawx]

[CHRISTY]

what are the chances of this soon to be td affecting florida ?

[CHRISTY]

i definetly see a rotation now!

[skysummit]

Why do we keep posting the same questions? The answers are no different right now than they were 20 minutes ago.

[Brent]

what are the chances of this soon to be td affecting florida ?

*screams*

Didn't you just ask this about 30 times???

[cinlfla]

It look to be getting a little better organized, I hope not much comes out of this for the sake of the Gulf coast IMO it looks like it may be headed that way.