99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Stratosphere747
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#861 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:17 pm

Looks like it will interact with land, before it has a real chance of developing.

Unless I'm missing the steering patterns, don't see how it would make it as far N as the YC or even across the peninsula and into the BOC.
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#862 Postby no advance » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:17 pm

No doubt this is a special feature now. Hyper this morning was on track. No plane developing feature.
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#863 Postby flhurricaneguy » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:21 pm

ohhh special feature
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#864 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:22 pm

28/1745 UTC 15.9N 80.1W T1.0/1.0 99 -- Atlantic Ocean

Finnally 99 gets a T number frpm SSD dvorak sat estimates meaning it is getting more close to TD status but not there yet.
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#865 Postby flhurricaneguy » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:25 pm

when do you think it will be a td? tommorow?
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#866 Postby no advance » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:29 pm

More important movement. Anyone pro-ams take a shot which direction this special feature will go? Yucatan channel?
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#867 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:31 pm

flhurricaneguy wrote:when do you think it will be a td? tommorow?


Imposible to say when exactly NHC will classify it as a TD as the disturbance may weaken as it did last night or organize more then what it is now.If recon goes tommorow morning there may be a more than 50% chance that if it is organized by then it may well be classified as a TD.
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#868 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:33 pm

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
You can see the ULL also over FL, 99L convection growing slowly.
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#869 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:34 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20050928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050928 1800 050929 0600 050929 1800 050930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 80.5W 17.4N 82.3W 18.0N 83.6W 18.2N 84.7W
BAMM 16.5N 80.5W 17.6N 82.7W 18.4N 84.1W 18.7N 85.4W
A98E 16.5N 80.5W 17.2N 82.2W 17.8N 83.7W 18.3N 85.0W
LBAR 16.5N 80.5W 17.7N 82.0W 19.0N 83.0W 20.2N 83.9W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050930 1800 051001 1800 051002 1800 051003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 85.8W 19.0N 88.2W 19.8N 90.7W 20.2N 93.1W
BAMM 19.0N 86.5W 19.8N 89.1W 20.8N 92.1W 21.3N 95.0W
A98E 18.7N 86.3W 20.8N 89.3W 22.7N 92.9W 24.0N 97.1W
LBAR 21.5N 84.8W 24.4N 86.6W 27.6N 88.2W 29.0N 89.6W
SHIP 63KTS 80KTS 85KTS 89KTS
DSHP 63KTS 38KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 78.9W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 77.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z Model Guidance.
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#870 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:34 pm

no advance wrote:More important movement. Anyone pro-ams take a shot which direction this special feature will go? Yucatan channel?


It might get trapped and stall in the northwestern Caribbean like Mitch did.
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#871 Postby cajungal » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:40 pm

Our met said it was so poorly organized that it was not even worth mentioning. They said it may never develop at all.
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#872 Postby skysummit » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:41 pm

cajungal wrote:Our met said it was so poorly organized that it was not even worth mentioning. They said it may never develop at all.


Yup...I heard that. They will never learn, will they.
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#873 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:46 pm

Based on the latest models, it seems like 99L will move over the Yucatan then towards Mexico/ Texas. Without a good initial point, the models will start doing the funky chicken dance for a while.
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#874 Postby cajungal » Wed Sep 28, 2005 1:50 pm

I am starting to get bored stiff on this wave. But, yet, checking into Storm2k and in this thread, has become an addiction. Either it is going to develop or it is not, I wish it would make up its mind. Hello, I am cajungal and I am a storm2kaholic.
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#875 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:02 pm

Yeah, I'm a bit tired of the season too but it is very exciting.

This wave will become TD by 5pm advisory tomorrow.
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#876 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:04 pm

Dvorak is already saying 1.0
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#877 Postby no advance » Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:08 pm

This is the burst that the TW needed for further organization.
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#878 Postby cajungal » Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:15 pm

Even if does become a TD, the models have it heading over the Yucatan. That would kill it right there. Just going to be a big rainmaker for the Yucatan and Mexico. Big ridge of high pressure forming, so it will have nowhere else to go but Mexico.
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#879 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:18 pm

Oh well at least it is something to watch. Plus US needs a break anyway. :wink:
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#880 Postby chrisnnavarre » Wed Sep 28, 2005 2:51 pm

99L looks to be getting bigger, or I'm maybe seeing things? Also what guarantee is there that this will move over to the Yucatan? I don't see it going anywhere fast right now....

:?:
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