Season Slowly Dying.

[ConvergenceZone]

You can sure see the signs out there. I do think we will maybe get two more storms after Stan develops. I was looking back historically, and there are PLENTY of years where the activity drops off like a rock the first week of October. It's really hard to say if we will make it to the Greek Alphabet. Prior, I was thinking that there was a good chance, but now, as the calendar days click on, I'm thinking the chance isn't quite as good, but I could be wrong of course.


I think this year I'm really anticipating the end of the season. I don't think I ever felt this way before. Amazing what devastation can do to one's thinking. I'm just glad Rita wasn't the cane they all thought it would be.

[Anonymous]

Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.

[corpusbreeze]

I wish it would hurry up. Bring on winter.

[MWatkins]

You can sure see the signs out there. I do think we will maybe get two more storms after Stan develops. I was looking back historically, and there are PLENTY of years where the activity drops off like a rock the first week of October. It's really hard to say if we will make it to the Greek Alphabet. Prior, I was thinking that there was a good chance, but now, as the calendar days click on, I'm thinking the chance isn't quite as good, but I could be wrong of course.


I think this year I'm really anticipating the end of the season. I don't think I ever felt this way before. Amazing what devastation can do to one's thinking. I'm just glad Rita wasn't the cane they all thought it would be.

Although I wish I could share your optimisim...there are no obvious signs that we will be lucky enough to get an October shutdown like we had last season.

Unlike last season...the Caribbean has gone completely untouchedthrough August and September...leaving some warm water behind...and usually speaking...active Septembers mean active Octobers unfortunately.

And...of course there is no Nino getting underway like there was last season at this time.

It's going to be a long...drawn out 45 days at least.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

I agree with Mike. The Carib waters are virtually untouched and if something, it doesnt have to be much, but if something just sits and spins over those still very warm waters, something could spin up very rapidly and be dangerous.

<RICKY>

[feederband]

LOL ... Break--- not a slow down yet...

[Windy]

It's been almost two weeks since our last sub 900mb storm! This lull is unbearable! Season cancel!

[x-y-no]

It's been almost two weeks since our last sub 900mb storm! This lull is unbearable! Season cancel!

This season is a dud!

[ConvergenceZone]

Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.

Well, I didn't want to have to say this, but I can't count the number of times you've been wrong about your forecasts, and I use to enjoy them until I noticed your enjoyment of tearing into me everytime one of my opinions didn't come to pass as factual. I don't do that to others, but that's just me.

Did I say the season is completely "dead" ???? No, so what's up??

[jax]

Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.

Well, I didn't want to have to say this, but I can't count the number of times you've been wrong about your forecasts, and I use to enjoy them until I noticed your enjoyment of tearing into me everytime one of my opinions didn't come to pass as factual. I don't do that to others, but that's just me.

Did I say the season is completely "dead" ???? No, so what's up??

hey... no hitting!

[EDR1222]

Still time for things to crank up again, especially the way this season has gone.

[gatorcane]

Although I wish I could share your optimisim...there are no obvious signs that we will be lucky enough to get an October shutdown like we had last season.

Unlike last season...the Caribbean has gone completely untouchedthrough August and September...leaving some warm water behind...and usually speaking...active Septembers mean active Octobers unfortunately.

And...of course there is no Nino getting underway like there was last season at this time.

It's going to be a long...drawn out 45 days at least.

MW

I am agreeing with Mike on this. A couple of weeks ago I challenged him about how the season was winding down then Rita came in out of nowhere. Mike I'm still eating crow for that!

[loon]

Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.

Well, I didn't want to have to say this, but I can't count the number of times you've been wrong about your forecasts, and I use to enjoy them until I noticed your enjoyment of tearing into me everytime one of my opinions didn't come to pass as factual. I don't do that to others, but that's just me.

Did I say the season is completely "dead" ???? No, so what's up??

Well, I think one reason one would react such as Floydbuster did is due to the Fact we just had a pretty big storm and there is atleast an invest out there. Just like someone said, its been a whole week since we had a sub 900mb storm out there. Your only data you offer for starting a thread saying the season is dying was what appears to be a quick glance through some storm history data. Another "quick glance" was done by MWatkins that showed "historically" busy Sept. gets a busy Oct. However its all History. (However Climinatology sure nailed no Texas landfalls in Sept. heh).


To me this thread looked like someone just bored and posting a thread that would get a rise out of people. However it appears you are serious, which, given the season we've had so far, and recon flying in an invest right now, I have to wonder what, besides history would make you think that way.

Anywho, this thread should get exciting before it is inevitably locked for slander, so post on soldiers, post on!

cheers,
loon

[SouthFloridawx]

well here are the seaon slowly dying people cause there is a lack of activity.

[Anonymous]

Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.

Well, I didn't want to have to say this, but I can't count the number of times you've been wrong about your forecasts, and I use to enjoy them until I noticed your enjoyment of tearing into me everytime one of my opinions didn't come to pass as factual. I don't do that to others, but that's just me.

Did I say the season is completely "dead" ???? No, so what's up??

I make forecasts based on best estimates on what a system that has formed may do. I do not make forecasts because Africa is free of waves for one day.

[AZS]

2004:

MATTHEW ----10/8/2004 - 10/11/2004
NICOLE ------10/10/2004 - 10/11/2004
OTTO--------- 11/26/2004 - 12/5/2004

2003:

MINDY --------10/10/2003 - 10/14/2003
NICHOLAS ----10/13/2003 - 11/1/2003
ODETTE ------12/4/2003 - 12/9/2003
PETER --------12/7/2003 - 12/11/2003

2001

IRIS -----------10/4/2001 - 10/9/2001
JERRY ---------10/6/2001 - 10/8/2001
KAREN --------10/11/2001 - 10/15/2001
LoRENZO -----10/27/2001 - 10/31/2001
MICHELLE ----10/29/2001 - 11/6/2001
NOEL ----------11/4/2001 - 11/6/2001
OLGA ----------11/23/2001 - 12/4/2001


In this active season ( 2005) we could expect more 5 or 6 named storms.

[Coredesat]

Here comes the dry MJO:

[WeatherEmperor]

we will be at this all day....

<RICKY>

[ConvergenceZone]

Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.

Well, I didn't want to have to say this, but I can't count the number of times you've been wrong about your forecasts, and I use to enjoy them until I noticed your enjoyment of tearing into me everytime one of my opinions didn't come to pass as factual. I don't do that to others, but that's just me.

Did I say the season is completely "dead" ???? No, so what's up??

Well, I think one reason one would react such as Floydbuster did is due to the Fact we just had a pretty big storm and there is atleast an invest out there. Just like someone said, its been a whole week since we had a sub 900mb storm out there. Your only data you offer for starting a thread saying the season is dying was what appears to be a quick glance through some storm history data. Another "quick glance" was done by MWatkins that showed "historically" busy Sept. gets a busy Oct. However its all History. (However Climinatology sure nailed no Texas landfalls in Sept. heh).


To me this thread looked like someone just bored and posting a thread that would get a rise out of people. However it appears you are serious, which, given the season we've had so far, and recon flying in an invest right now, I have to wonder what, besides history would make you think that way.

Anywho, this thread should get exciting before it is inevitably locked for slander, so post on soldiers, post on!

cheers,
loon

no, it's just that I feel like if one says anything that's not remotely bullish regarding the season, people tear into you. My god, I didn't say the season was over, and I'm sure if the mods read my post, they can see why I get upset by the response. All I said is that I think we will have a couple of more storms, but that's probably about it, but this is just an opinion, nothing more.. What's wrong with that?? Is that anymore different that someone saying that we will have 10 more storms this season without any evidence either?

That's what I don't understand.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well...hey, you WERE right about the African waves...oh wait....we had a bunch of waves and even a hurricane.

Well, I didn't want to have to say this, but I can't count the number of times you've been wrong about your forecasts, and I use to enjoy them until I noticed your enjoyment of tearing into me everytime one of my opinions didn't come to pass as factual. I don't do that to others, but that's just me.

Did I say the season is completely "dead" ???? No, so what's up??

I make forecasts based on best estimates on what a system that has formed may do. I do not make forecasts because Africa is free of waves for one day.

again, please read my post and quote where I said the season was "dead". Should I post the years where there has been little activity in October and November?... If you guys are right, I'll admit it, but boy, as much as I'm getting slammed, you better watch out if I end up being right. You'll never hear the end of it ...