East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 011528
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN... LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS... AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY...
LOCATED ABOUT 125 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO OR ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.


FORECASTER STEWART


This is the area that some haved mentioned in the past few days.

[Anonymous]

Yep...and how did two of the strongest hurricanes in recorded history begin???

[Innotech]

urgh....
well, whatever happens, happens.

[MiamiensisWx]

Shear from the ULL appears to be preventing faster organization.

[mtm4319]

Doesn't look like much right now.

[WeatherEmperor]

how long has that upper low been sitting and spinning there?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 012121
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN... LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS... AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY...LOCATED ABOUT
95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COZUMEL MEXICO.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
650 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[MiamiensisWx]

Do any models or forecasts hint at upper-level winds becoming more favorable for the system to develop?

[Ivanhater]

the mobile/pensacola afd more than mentions this wave...


MOBILE/PENSACOLA AFD

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BRIEFLY
GIVES WAY AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
SURFACE COLD FRONT AGAIN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AS WITH THE LAST FRONT...THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVES THE FRONT
LIMPING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY. THUS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RIGHT NOW AM NOT BITING OFF ON THE FULL
BLOWN TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOWN IN THE ETA AS THERE IS NO REAL AGREEMENT
ON THIS FEATURE BUT WILL BEAR CLOSE WATCHING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN STILL LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS. EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND WILL HOLD ON TO ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
AS WE WAIT TO SEE WHAT YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE DOES AS IT IS
FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPS
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO AFTER FROPA. MAY HAVE TEMPS A LITTLE COOL
BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON THE 00Z ENSEMBLES BUT HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO ADJUST THOSE IN FUTURE PACKAGES./13


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ONLY MENTION IN THE BODY
OF THE FORECAST OUT 20 NM THIS ISSUANCE. BUT WILL HEADLINE SCA FOR
SUNDAY IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE LEG FOR SEAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...WILL KEEP A LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK./22

[Brent]

Is anyone not disturbed that Katrina and Rita started in the same area?

[WeatherEmperor]

yeah but didnt Katrina and Rita form in a different way? This current feature right now is an upper low interacting with a wave. I dont remember either Katrina or Rita forming in this way of interacting with an upper low, unless Im wrong.

<RICKY>

[Brent]

yeah but didnt Katrina and Rita form in a different way? This current feature right now is an upper low interacting with a wave. I dont remember either Katrina or Rita forming in this way of interacting with an upper low, unless Im wrong.

<RICKY>

Good point. It's just a little freaky that this would be moving on a similar track.

[wxmann_91]

yeah but didnt Katrina and Rita form in a different way? This current feature right now is an upper low interacting with a wave. I dont remember either Katrina or Rita forming in this way of interacting with an upper low, unless Im wrong.

<RICKY>

Katrina formed from the remnants of TD 10 interacting with another wave, so yeah, that is not how Katrina formed.

However, Rita formed from a remnant of an old, stalled out frontal boundary interacting with an ULL IIRC. If I am wrong, then someone please correct me, but I know Rita didn't form from a tropical wave.

So, setting all other things aside, this has a chance.

However, at least through the next 48 hours, the shear will remain strong off the east coast of Florida. After that, the shear could decrease some, but the shear in the GOM will start increasing. http://www.weatherunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Charles-KD5ZSM]

yeah but didnt Katrina and Rita form in a different way? This current feature right now is an upper low interacting with a wave. I dont remember either Katrina or Rita forming in this way of interacting with an upper low, unless Im wrong.

<RICKY>

I forgot how Rita formed, but katrina began as a depression that dissipated and then formed with another low and became better organized. This is as accurately as I can describe what happened on what i remember. That is generally what happened.

[Anonymous]

However, at least through the next 48 hours, the shear will remain strong off the east coast of Florida. After that, the shear could decrease some, but the shear in the GOM will start increasing. http://www.weatherunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

Well...one thing your forgetting is that the shear at the 72 hrs mark...would be the northern outflow from TD-20 in the Bay of Campeche. Atleast thats the way I would see it.

[cycloneye]

If I recall TD 18 which eventually became Rita formed from an upper trough combined with a surface trough that was hanging stationary north of Puerto Rico for several days.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 020222
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 665 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS... AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY...LOCATED ABOUT
70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH OF
COZUMEL MEXICO.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
525 MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.


FORECASTER BEVEN


Nothing new about this area.

[wxmann_91]

However, at least through the next 48 hours, the shear will remain strong off the east coast of Florida. After that, the shear could decrease some, but the shear in the GOM will start increasing. http://www.weatherunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

Well...one thing your forgetting is that the shear at the 72 hrs mark...would be the northern outflow from TD-20 in the Bay of Campeche. Atleast thats the way I would see it.

From the NHC:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES
THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 84 HR. SHOULD THAT LANDFALL NOT OCCUR OR BE
DELAYED...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

[cycloneye]

Bump.

[Anthysteg]

Looks like a tough little guy out there. I wouldn't be too shocked to see the old standby...



"Blah blah blah Wave looks more defined then we predicted, could become depression despite unfavorable environment blah blah".


However, there doesn't appear to be convection near the center. It could have as much convection around it but it could spice up