92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

thanks xy

[N2Storms]

and boy, do we need the rain. This is an excerpt from the Eglin AFB Tropical Weather Disc:

Out attention now turns to the wave over the Bahamas southeast of Miami. With Stan now expected to dissipate as it moves inland over the next 24 hours, this will actually make upper level conditions more favorable for this wave to develop into a depression as it approaches the southeast Florida coast. The outflow from Stan had been impinging on this system, but that has already diminished this morning, allowing a low to form just south of Nassau. This tropical low is expected to eventually move into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday with some computer models projecting it to become Tropical Storm Tammy. One complicating factor in all this is the arrival of another cold front from the Great Plains and Midwest that promises to be stronger than the last front (which washed out as soon as it hit the coast last Friday and had no cool air left by the time it reached Eglin). This new front is expected to dive into the Gulf and interact with the tropical system, possibly merging with it, to create a big rain maker for the Panhandle.

[hicksta]

Hmm model runs push her SW after mid gulf

[nequad]

Call me silly-but- it appears to me the low center is a little further NE from where TPC placed the center for the 12Z model run. Is there not a center beneath the ball of convection closer to Eleuthera Island? It's more apparent on visible imagery. Looks like some inflow into this convection from the south on vis imagery.

Just my simple analysis after viewing satellite trends this morning.

[terpfan]

Jeff Masters' most recent analysis here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Coredesat]

That's 92L over the western tip of Cuba. The low off the Georgia coast is a homebrew development which starts day 5.

Just gonna chime in before anyone asks about it - I'm pretty sure the homebrew development indicated by that run of the Euro is the extratropical low Jeff Masters mentioned in his recent blog on the Weather Underground.

Oddly enough, the GFS develops this low sooner than the Euro - it splits off from 92L at 96 hours, much further north than Georgia.

The 12z GFDL seems to support a subtropical depression or just an extratropical low in the Gulf.

[Blown Away]

I agree NEQuad, the models start well below Andros. I don't see any convection near the model initial point. I'm thinking if a LLC does form it will happen NE of the model intitial point. IMHO

[nequad]

I can make out what appears to be a very broad low center close to the 12Z position..I want to make clear I'm not questioning TPC. But the ball of convection to the NE...near Eleuthera...looks interesting during the past few hours.

There appears to be some sort of rotatioin in there. Perhaps it will dissipate, and perhaps it's nothing. Just wanted to point it out.

[Sanibel]

Concur Eleuthera CDO center sheared east of loose surface center between Andros and Key Largo.

This system is more tropical than people realize...

[gatorcane]

This system is more tropical than people realize...

I think the same thing

[Air Force Met]

This system is more tropical than people realize...

Please explain...who says it is not tropical right now?

[nequad]

Interesting tid bit-

Current wx in bahamas shows a north wind on Nassau(albeit light ~5mph)
with east winds ~15mph on Eleuthera.

Pressure was reported to be 29.77 in/HG on Nassau and 29.80 on Eleuthera.


http://www.bahamas.com/bahamas/weatherdetail.aspx?island=eleu

[x-y-no]

I agree NEQuad, the models start well below Andros. I don't see any convection near the model initial point. I'm thinking if a LLC does form it will happen NE of the model intitial point. IMHO

Yeah, well that's why quick development is unlikely. The surface center, to the extent there is one, is well removed to the WSW from the convection due to the strong westerly shear.

I think we'll see TD-like conditions here tonight, but I don't think this gets stacked at least until it gets in the gulf, if then.

If the models' looping idea verifies, then I think we could get a TS which heads NE across Florida early next week. I won't rule out that idea, especially since it's not oly the Euro doing it any more. Somewhat more likely, though, is hybrid development in days 2 to 3 which recurves directly rather than looping.

[Ivanhater]

This system is more tropical than people realize...

I think the same thing

no one is saying this is not tropical right now, it is tropical, we are talking about down the road it will likely become hybrid

[nequad]

nevermind- apparently the conditions just updated and Nassau is now reporting E winds.

[NastyCat4]

Look at the Miami radar loop--this thing, such as it is has already begun to hit Florida with rain and wind. It isn't going to develop over land, so any possible development will be after it crosses Florida and gets into the Gulf. How can something develop if it is already there?

[Ivanhater]

i think im seeing low level inflow on visible....moving under the convection...not sure if that means there is a surface low under the convection, need a pro to verify

[Air Force Met]

no one is saying this is not tropical right now, it is tropical, we are talking about down the road it will likely become hybrid

Yeah...I'm not getting this whole mis-communication thing. It's almost as if people are offended that it won't be purely tropical...like there is a desire to see another cane so much that the meteorology behind it is being ignored. Not sure why some are doing this. Nobody has said it will not develop...I've even said it will be called Tammy...and that it stands a better chance to develop if it moves up the east coast of Florida with a split in the energy (which is kinda what the GFS has been showing).

It's almost as if people are offended that they will only get some hybrid development out of this and not some purely tropical system in the Gulf, complete with CDO and eye. That's not going to happen...but there will be lots of rain and some wind (gradient alone with the front will see to that).

There are quotes from the NHC...but even the NHC is not coming out and telling you they think it will be some sort of hybrid...because frankly...as someone else said...it really won't make that much of a diff for folks in Florida who will still see lots of rain and some wind.

[Air Force Met]

i think im seeing low level inflow on visible....moving under the convection...not sure if that means there is a surface low under the convection, need a pro to verify

That is what I was speaking of early this morning...that it looks as if the sfc trof has leaned back to the NE...which could allow for some pressure falls in that area. There is still just a sharp trof in that area...as you can see by the low level clouds moving rather swiftly to the north over Andros. A clue to look for to see if a LLC is forming under those thunderstorms is to watch those clouds. If they slow down...then the pressure gradient is loosening...which means the pressures are lowering to the NE.

[NastyCat4]

Yeah...I'm not getting this whole mis-communication thing. It's almost as if people are offended that it won't be purely tropical...like there is a desire to see another cane so much that the meteorology behind it is being ignored. Not sure why some are doing this. Nobody has said it will not develop...I've even said it will be called Tammy...and that it stands a better chance to develop if it moves up the east coast of Florida with a split in the energy (which is kinda what the GFS has been showing).

They are called people I disagree with, and are so desperate to see a storm at all costs, they don't care who they offend, or who gets injured/damaged/affected by it. These are the same folks that are desperate to see the Greek Alphabet. It is also interesting that the folks who feel that way are a) usually teenagers, or b) live nowhere near the tropics, or c) don't own property.