92L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[artist]

I was wondering about that - it has since gone back up to 26.19. I did note during Rita it did seem to be accurate but I could be wrong on that as well. The other one on the island there is fluctuating from 26.48 - 26.78. That is why I had stated I was not sure how accurate these were. There seems to be close to a 5 kt difference in their wind speed as well.
They both seem to running around the same so far as direction goes. from e to ese

[artist]

ok - just found out that the one in Tahiti Beach is on south Elbow Cay. White Sound / Rocky Bay is on Elbow Cay at 26.5n77w or at the actual elbow of the island (central)

[CHRISTY]

incredible GOES image of 92L! looks like its getting organized.

[fasterdisaster]

Wow cool pic. It does look better organized.

[Air Force Met]

Wow cool pic. It does look better organized.

To bad all of that convection and organization is well east of the weak...barely closed low.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some bursts of convection near 92L...shear looks to be lessening
slightly now that Stan is weakening-- therefore IMO conditions
may be more favorable for development soon...
will wait and see...

perhaps a new LLC may form to the east of the current one?
given that convection is off to the east of it??

[krysof]

Wow cool pic. It does look better organized.

To bad all of that convection and organization is well east of the weak...barely closed low.

it looks like the center is reforming in the middle of the convection on the northern, eastern and western side

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051005 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 0000 051005 1200 051006 0000 051006 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 78.5W 27.6N 79.7W 29.4N 80.7W 31.2N 81.6W
BAMM 26.0N 78.5W 27.3N 80.2W 28.7N 81.5W 30.0N 82.8W
A98E 26.0N 78.5W 27.7N 79.3W 29.6N 80.2W 30.9N 80.7W
LBAR 26.0N 78.5W 27.6N 79.8W 29.2N 80.9W 30.8N 82.1W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 30KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 0000 051008 0000 051009 0000 051010 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.1N 82.0W 39.2N 78.6W 47.0N 69.1W 51.6N 57.6W
BAMM 31.2N 83.8W 34.0N 82.9W 38.1N 76.0W 40.4N 70.7W
A98E 32.2N 80.6W 37.8N 76.6W 46.7N 65.3W 49.6N 44.9W
LBAR 32.5N 81.9W 36.7N 78.5W 40.9N 68.7W 45.8N 56.9W
SHIP 60KTS 66KTS 65KTS 49KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 15KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.0N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 24.0N LONM12 = 78.0W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 76.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Initial position is more north in latitud than the past 18:00z run.

[Brent]

Looks like it may not even make the Gulf(or just barely)... meaning little to no development.

[HURAKAN]

04/2345 UTC 25.9N 77.2W T1.0/1.0 92 -- Atlantic Ocean

[CHRISTY]

right at miami's hight!

[Brent]

right at miami's hight!

Actually... Hollywood.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like it may not even make the Gulf(or just barely)... meaning little to no development.

Read AFM's earlier post on what may be happening...

Scott

[Air Force Met]

Wow cool pic. It does look better organized.

To bad all of that convection and organization is well east of the weak...barely closed low.

it looks like the center is reforming in the middle of the convection on the northern, eastern and western side

What evidence are you basing that on? There is no vis shots to show a LLC...the shortwave IR is covered by cirrus in that area...so no evidence...and the buoy reports show a lot higher pressures in that area and the lower pressures 29N/78W. I don't see any evidence of a LLC in that area. That's where the MLC is.

[Thunder44]

Floater 2 now on this system:

[Rainband]

Floater has been on the system. I am really doubting this will affect Florida much. Models continue to shift eastward and all the convection is east of the "center"

[HURAKAN]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Grrr...if this shift means the rain will miss me in drought Tampa
Bay...

[DAVE440]

Looks to be getting better organized in water vapor loop.

Also...I do see where models might take it NW. Appears to be a
NW component looking at the loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

[Rainband]

Grrr...if this shift means the rain will miss me in drought Tampa
Bay...

Yep