Subtropical Depression 22: Last Advisory Written

[Brent]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
ORGANIZATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8
WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.1 N... 60.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

Track is a little closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast...

[Brent]

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...WITH THE OUTER BAND SEEN
EARLIER DISSIPATING AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING FULLY EXPOSED
FOR A TIME. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NEW BURST HAS
FORMED JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB...SUBTROPICAL 25-30 KT
FROM TAFB...AND TROPICAL 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION BEING SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6 HR AGO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/17. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEFORE
36 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
SOME DECELERATION BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
A LARGE MID/ UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH. AFTER 36-48 HR...THE
TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE. IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE
WESTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR
TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS
SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTH. THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 48 HR CONTINUES TO CALL
FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE
PREMISE THAT THE U. S. MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO PULSES OF SHEAR DURING THE
NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFTER THREE
DAYS. THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL LOSE THE SYSTEM IN
36-72 HR. ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD
STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST
STRENGTHENING A LITTLE ABOVE THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL... WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
A FASTER WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND
LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL IS RIGHT ABOUT THE SHEAR... THE CYCLONE
COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD
FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 29.1N 60.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 30.1N 62.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 31.1N 65.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 31.9N 67.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 33.0N 69.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 34.5N 72.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 36.0N 72.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W 30 KT

[teal61]

test

[fasterdisaster]

It looks pathetic, but less pathetic than 6 hours ago.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks very disorganized but man I was in Indiania for tammy and they had 40mph wind in my area.

[Brent]

Indiania

Where is that?

[Brent]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0
WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB... 29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION... 29.2 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD... WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER

[WindRunner]

FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER

Who's the new guy, or do they sometimes have people help them with forecasts that don't usually do so?

[vbhoutex]

I thought they were replacing two this year. If I remember correctly Knabb was the 1st and until now apparently another one had not been named. I do remember a very few times in the past when an unrecognized name has shown up.

[NCHurricane]

FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER

Who's the new guy, or do they sometimes have people help them with forecasts that don't usually do so?

Matt is getting sick and tired of Katie's perky personality, so he's taking up meteorology.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[Brent]

FORECASTER KNABB/LAUER

Who's the new guy, or do they sometimes have people help them with forecasts that don't usually do so?

Matt is getting sick and tired of Katie's perky personality, so he's taking up meteorology.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

When I first saw Lauer that was my thought too.

[Brent]

It's dead.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222005
0300Z SUN OCT 09 2005

AT 11 PM EST...0300Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 65.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.6N 67.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.3N 69.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.8N 71.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.5N 73.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 62.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

Wow that was a quick death.

[krysof]

It's dead.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222005
0300Z SUN OCT 09 2005

AT 11 PM EST...0300Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.8N 65.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.6N 67.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 31.3N 69.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 31.8N 71.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 32.5N 73.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 62.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

FORECASTER KNABB

Oh come on, I wanted to get to Alpha and now that's not going to happen, goodbye tropical cyclone forum, I moving on to winter.

[Brent]

I wanted to see Alpha too.

[cycloneye]

Ok being the case that the last advisory was written I will take out the sticky.

[Andrew92]

Ba-bye #22!

[fasterdisaster]

SOOOOOOBBBB!!!!

[cycloneye]

979
WTNT32 KNHC 090248
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AT 11 PM EST...0300Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF DISSIPATING SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA.

THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH
...22 KM/HR. THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...29.2 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER KNABB