TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Weatherboy1]

I hope this doesn't come across as "-removed-" or anything, given I'm in northeastern Palm Beach County, but I seriously, seriously doubt this storm is going to make landfall any farther north than, say, Tampa Bay. This time of year -- as alluded to in the 5 a.m. NHC discussion -- troughs tend to dig a lot deeper than models forecast. The tendency (especially in late October) is for storms to hook to the N and NE sooner than forecast. Remember Irene in 1999 -- the official track and several models all had her going almost due N west of Tampa Bay and she ended up crossing the state in a NNE direction and going right over eastern Palm Beach County. Then, as Derek pointed out, you had storms like Michelle and Lily that hooked even more sharply to the NE. Bottom line: I think this storm is a peninsular FL event at this time.

[Brent]

12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday

But where does it make landfall? Certainly not anywhere near Pensacola.

What is that suppose to mean???

I'm waiting for 120 hours right now... in all likelihood it'll make a hard right towards the Peninsula. I just don't see how this hits the Panhandle, not with these cold fronts.

[Ivanhater]

12z gfs much further west near yucatan now on thursday

But where does it make landfall? Certainly not anywhere near Pensacola.

What is that suppose to mean???

dude, grow up...i have NEVER said this was coming to Pensacola

[Brent]

and it begins... Friday at 8am, just north of Cancun.



2pm... moving little.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126s.gif

[Ivanhater]

where is the trough in the gfs??? am i reading it wrong, lol

[Scorpion]

Wow the GFS flips flops. Nothing new.

[Brent]

Slowly moving north...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138s.gif

Go east now. Thank you.

[Ivanhater]

[TS Zack]

The trough is alot weaker in the new model run.

[StormFury]

And where does it end up?
Sure people in the Yucatan will be worried, but I seriously doubt anyone from the Yucatan is using this forum...so I think its safe to say that the majority of the people on this forum are dying to know where will this storm make a US landfall?

[Brent]

The trough is alot weaker in the new model run.

[jkt21787]

Slowly moving north...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138s.gif

Go east now. Thank you.

The storm will need to make a heck of a right turn to be anything south of Tampa Bay Now...

[Brent]

And where does it end up?
Sure people in the Yucatan will be worried, but I seriously doubt anyone from the Yucatan is using this forum...so I think its safe to say that the majority of the people on this forum are dying to know where will this storm make a US landfall?

It's not out yet... when it is, it'll be posted.

[TS Zack]

The trough is alot weaker in the new model run.

Kicks out quicker too.

[Ivanhater]

thanks brent for helping with the images.... its hard to post them all, lol

[x-y-no]

I'm pretty suspicious of how much this GFS run is weakening the mid-level ridge over the western Gulf in the 48 to 96 hour timeframe. That seems to be the difference which leads to this more westerly track, and we all know how the GFS loves to break down mid-level ridging.

If the 0Z run is sticking with this idea, I'll take it more seriously.

[Ivanhater]

I'm pretty suspicious of how much this GFS run is weakening the mid-level ridge over the western Gulf in the 48 to 96 hour timeframe. That seems to be the difference which leads to this more westerly track, and we all know how the GFS loves to break down mid-level ridging.

If the 0Z run is sticking with this idea, I'll take it more seriously.

ya i noticed early on , on this run, i was like where is the trough??? lol

[floridahurricaneguy]

Wondering if landfall could be more Tampa and North area. If trough is weaker. I am 30 minutes north of tampa so anything coming just north of Tampa would slam into me. Only model run though. I just dont see how it could go north to panhandle if there will be a big trough but GFS shows it weaker. hmm

[Brent]

I don't even see a trough...

[Ivanhater]