TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jkt21787]

Ok so now the bandwagon is changing their tune? Ughhhh, I need to step away from the keyboard.

FWIW I'm not a big believer in this GFS. It is possible? definitely. But I don't think it will happen. GFS is too weak with the trough most likely. Will definitely wait for the 00z GFS before giving it too much thought...

[fasterdisaster]

Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.

Convection IS over the center.

[Trader Ron]

Looks like the Cedar Key/Port Richey area? Hard to tell but it's a little north of Tampa.

Looks like the Big Bend area to me. North of Tampa, Big Bend area. Just what i "guessed". We'll see.

[jkt21787]

Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.

Convection IS over the center.

There is a small ball of convection over the center, but the largest and biggest one is still removed. Of course lets see what the recon fix is in case it has shifted since...

[Stratosphere747]

Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.

Convection IS over the center.

There is a small ball of convection over the center, but the largest and biggest one is still well removed. Of course lets see what the recon fix is in case it has shifted since...

It has great outflow, but there is very little convection over the center. I'd have to think though that the circulation is established enough that we would not see the circulation move itself to the bigger blowup to the SW?

[texasweatherwatcher]

[jkt21787]

Convection is still not over the center, may be some TS force gusts maybe a few sustained in that convection, but so far nothing overly impressive IMO.

Convection IS over the center.

There is a small ball of convection over the center, but the largest and biggest one is still well removed. Of course lets see what the recon fix is in case it has shifted since...

It has great outflow, but there is very little convection over the center. I'd have to think though that the circulation is established enough that we would not see the circulation move itself to the bigger blowup to the SW?

I would think that as well.

[tracyswfla]

what time was that initialized?

[texasweatherwatcher]

[Ivanhater]

12z nogaps still into central mexico

[Brent]

what time was that initialized?

That's the 11am NHC track...

[tracyswfla]

what time was that initialized?

That's the 11am NHC track...

Thanks Brent. It will surely shift left at 5..

[krysof]

models are underestimating the power of this trough, I do not think it will go to the left of Florida, I think it will hit west central Florida and then the storm will parallel the trough heading rapidly NNE-possible Donna scenario?

[Stratosphere747]

12z nogaps still into central mexico

If I remember right, Nogaps was way to far west with Rita...Not sure if it has a westward bias with other storms though..

[Ivanhater]

12z nogaps still into central mexico

If I remember right, Nogaps was way to far west with Rita...Not sure if it has a westward bias with other storms though..

ya, i believe it had a northern mexico solution for the longest time

[KWT]

Please remember Charley as well,the models generlaly predicted a Tampa sort of region,infact it ended up further south then that and in a similar situation prehaps we should watch out incase it happens again.

[fasterdisaster]

I see a spot of the "gray" convection popping up a little close to the center.(Maybe not over, but close.)

[WeatherEmperor]

anybody have the 12Z GFS yet?

<RICKY>

[Brent]

anybody have the 12Z GFS yet?

<RICKY>

Go back to Page 24.

Eastern Yucatan... then north of Tampa.

[Derek Ortt]

NOGAPS and GFDN were the only models to accurately capture the movement of Keith. The other models were blown away by the all powerful CLIPER