Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

canegrl04 · #41 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:26 pm

This is a depressing development.

A chance that NOLA could get hit again.That area seems to be the target this season

krysof · #42 Postby **krysof** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:07 pm

canegrl04 wrote:This is a depressing development. A chance that NOLA could get hit again.That area seems to be the target this season

It's very unlikely it goes that far to the west like the models are thinking, I say Florida Peninsula. It's October and ridges don't last long and troughs can make it down much further than in August to mid September

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #43 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:23 pm

It looks like it will stay a tropical depression. Really I would of loved to see it become tropical storm Wilma. Which would of made this year tie 1933. Looks like I'm going to be a old man before I get another chance to see that record broke.

fasterdisaster · #44 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:25 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks like it will stay a tropical depression. Really I would of loved to see it become tropical storm Wilma. Which would of made this year tie 1933. Looks like I'm going to be a old man before I get another chance to see that record broke.

No! It will be a TS! You're driving me crazy! 1000 mb just estimated! Looks like a TS to me!

Bgator · #45 Postby **Bgator** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:26 pm

This will not stay a depression has lots of warm water, dry air is temporary....

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #46 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:29 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks like it will stay a tropical depression. Really I would of loved to see it become tropical storm Wilma. Which would of made this year tie 1933. Looks like I'm going to be a old man before I get another chance to see that record broke.

No! It will be a TS! You're driving me crazy! 1000 mb just estimated! Looks like a TS to me!

Based on what? The recon just got back with only 31 knots. Which is weaker then last nights. The convection is drying out over the LLC.

fasterdisaster · #47 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:33 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks like it will stay a tropical depression. Really I would of loved to see it become tropical storm Wilma. Which would of made this year tie 1933. Looks like I'm going to be a old man before I get another chance to see that record broke.

No! It will be a TS! You're driving me crazy! 1000 mb just estimated! Looks like a TS to me!

Based on what? The recon just got back with only 31 knots. Which is weaker then last nights. The convection is drying out over the LLC.

1) Last night you said there was NO convection over the center, as well this morning.

2)The convection's blowing up over the center, not drying out.

3)Dry air will go away soon.

4)I never saw positions of the recon where they went over the strongest convection.

Weatherfreak14 · #48 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:35 pm

IMO it doesen't look really organized right now.

fasterdisaster · #49 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:36 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:IMO it doesen't look really organized right now.

I don't think so either, but I think it's not very educated to say this won't strengthen.

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:58 pm

802
WTNT34 KNHC 162357
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND NOT YET ANY STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...
4 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 42057... LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER... RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

MyGulfParadise · #51 Postby **MyGulfParadise** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:23 pm

She's just sitting in a stale area right now as far as steering currents go which is actually a bad thing. This will give her more time to gather herself together before she starts to move. SST's a good in that area and shear is low. A little dry air around but not enough to hinder development. I just think she's a slow starter like Kat and Rita. IMHO

Website · #52 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:40 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z MON OCT 17 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 79.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.7N 80.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 80.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 81.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 83.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...115NE 100SE 100SW 115NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 79.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

Website · #53 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

...SLOWLY MOVING DEPRESSION NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 155 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
MONDAY. IF AND WHEN IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

Website · #54 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:42 pm

#55 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:46 pm

Scorpion · #56 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:47 pm

Ugh still no TS.

Swimdude · #57 Postby **Swimdude** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:48 pm

God is punishing us for WANTING this to become Wilma. :lol:

Website · #58 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:50 pm

It'll be named at 5am while I'm asleep.

:roll:

Steve H. · #59 Postby **Steve H.** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:50 pm

It will be Wilma soon. Look at the deep convection near the center, which shows black on IR and white to grey to black on the Dvorak. Those are extrememly cold cloud tops, -85/-90! She should begin to develop quite well if this trend continues, and there's no reason to believe it won't :eek:

Scorpion · #60 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:52 pm

I just hope all this hype isn't for nothing.

Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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