Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[cinlfla]

Link for Euro


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!/


Not sure why the link is not working I used the right tags but you can still copy and past.

[SouthFLTropics]

I noticed Avila in the 5 AM said "It is fresh in my memory that... in 1998 with a similar steering pattern...all models moved hurricane Mitch northward and the hurricane indeed moved southward. However...dynamic models have improved a lot since...."

If anyone wants to go back in time and 'experience' the events surrounding that storm, pick up the book " The Ship and the Storm: Hurricane Mitch and the Loss of the Fantome" by Jim Carrier. Its made to order for Storm2k'ers. The author had unprecedented access to the NHC and the book is exceptionally well written.

I agree doug, The Ship and the Storm is an excellent read. I have actually read the book twice...

[stormy1959]

Looks like Charley's track. http://www.ecmwf.int/ Can't get direct link to work, but go to forcasts and choose N. A.

[Stratosphere747]

When did the NHC officially make Wilma a hurricane?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Will all the tracks start shifting around again based on a much stronger storm at that location? -since the tracks were based on a tropical storm before... now they are dealing with a hurricane?

Is it true that a stronger storm will be more likely to head more northerly or will it make no difference sinc ethe steering factor will end up being the front?

[artist]

Derek was saying it could still be cat 2or 3 across the state so if we get hit in Palm Beach county that is what it could possibly be here.

[Brent]

When did the NHC officially make Wilma a hurricane?

It will be one at 11am(12z models).

[cycloneye]

When did the NHC officially make Wilma a hurricane?

First post at thread .

[Chigger_Lopez]

Being in Palm Beach County or Broward County could be more dangerous than other counties on the east coast considering the general angle that the models will be bringing her in and considering how little damage a trip through the everglades made on Katrina. If Wilma tracks NE through the everglades, she may retain a lot of her intensity. Any thoughts on this?

[Stratosphere747]

When did the NHC officially make Wilma a hurricane?

It will be one at 11am(12z models).

Fairly obvious, but S2K used to always wait till it was deemed "official" by the NHC. IMO those without the knowledge may pop on and become very confused by what their local officials may be saying.

Scott

[JPmia]

I posted this in the other thread and think it is worth repeating:

Source: 5am TPC Disco:
WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED
IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW.

WILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE MODELS
SHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF
WILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR
STEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND
THE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER.

.....And a lot of those hurricanes hit southern Florida during that period. Derek, I would be very interested in your thoughts about the Miami/FT. Laud. Metro area wind impacts if it continues on current forecast. Not many of us understand the impacts from a SW landfalling storm in the metro areas.

[no advance]

Looks to me like we may see rapid intesification this afternoon. Look at the storm puffy clouds. No wind shear. The ? is how strong will it get.

[cjrciadt]

21/12/6 so far this year, soon to be 21/12/7?

[ronjon]

The Euro brings the storm through Port Charlotte across to Melbourne. It has been pretty consistent with this track for several days. Its interesting that the 06Z GFDL continues to have the storm track further north near Sarasota, similar to yesterday. it has a 120 mph hurricane slamming into Sarasota SAT afternoon-evening and running along I-4 to Daytona Beach.



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! :eek:

[Brent]

The Euro brings the storm through Port Charlotte across to Melbourne. It has been pretty consistent with this track for several days. Its interesting that the 06Z GFDL continues to have the storm track further north near Sarasota, similar to yesterday. it has a 120 mph hurricane slamming into Sarasota SAT afternoon-evening and running along I-4 to Daytona Beach.

Geez...

[cjrciadt]

Cat3 winds on my head

[JamesFromMaine2]

:eek: Holy Crap!! :eek:

how many times have we seen this this year? alteast 21 I would say! lol

[stormandan28]

If the storm hits say where the nhc track shows will Sarasota feel any strong winds or will we not feel nothing.

[Brent]

If the storm hits say where the nhc track shows will Sarasota feel any strong winds or will we not feel nothing.

Maybe a few squalls...

But the GFDL is pretty much overhead.