Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Blown Away]

Timing ???
-10/18/05 11am position: 16.5/80.6 to 10/22/05 6pm position
near Marco (Per NHC track) = 103 hours
-Approximately 700 miles (Including the W bend in track)

Assuming it stays at 7mph then the timing works, but it's obvious Wilma starts accelerating more than 7mph starting Thursday AM (Per NHC). It seems to me that Wilma will likely be a late Friday storm rather than Saturday evening??

[Brent]

I haven't seen CHRISTY here in a long, long time. I'm surprised.

christy was last seen at MIA getting the first flight to alaska

[JTD]

CHRISTY will go absolutely NUTS when she sees the 12z UKMET.

Oh please dont mention that name.

[Agua]

That storm is really moving erratically.

[skysummit]

Looks like the eyewall is beginning to take shape.

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.2 80.3 320./ 4.1
6 16.4 81.3 279./ 9.4
12 16.5 82.1 279./ 8.1
18 16.9 82.9 297./ 8.6
24 17.3 83.8 297./ 9.4
30 17.8 84.6 298./ 8.9
36 18.0 85.3 291./ 7.3
42 18.4 85.8 301./ 6.1
48 18.9 86.2 327./ 6.6
54 19.5 86.4 337./ 5.7
60 20.2 86.6 349./ 7.1
66 20.7 86.7 352./ 5.7
72 21.4 86.6 8./ 6.8
78 22.0 86.4 16./ 6.0
84 22.5 86.0 41./ 6.1
90 23.1 85.5 37./ 8.2
96 23.9 85.0 34./ 9.0
102 24.7 84.0 50./11.4
108 25.8 82.5 52./17.9
114 27.4 80.5 52./23.8
120 29.5 77.9 51./31.3
126 32.2 74.6 51./39.1



12z GFDL has the landfall near Ft Myers.

[Blown Away]

Looks like all the models are moving S. Joe B did call for development, but I don't see how Jacksonville gets hurricane gusts from a system likely to go through the southern portion of the state and maybe miss the state??

[tracyswfla]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.2 80.3 320./ 4.1
6 16.4 81.3 279./ 9.4
12 16.5 82.1 279./ 8.1
18 16.9 82.9 297./ 8.6
24 17.3 83.8 297./ 9.4
30 17.8 84.6 298./ 8.9
36 18.0 85.3 291./ 7.3
42 18.4 85.8 301./ 6.1
48 18.9 86.2 327./ 6.6
54 19.5 86.4 337./ 5.7
60 20.2 86.6 349./ 7.1
66 20.7 86.7 352./ 5.7
72 21.4 86.6 8./ 6.8
78 22.0 86.4 16./ 6.0
84 22.5 86.0 41./ 6.1
90 23.1 85.5 37./ 8.2
96 23.9 85.0 34./ 9.0
102 24.7 84.0 50./11.4
108 25.8 82.5 52./17.9
114 27.4 80.5 52./23.8
120 29.5 77.9 51./31.3
126 32.2 74.6 51./39.1



12z GFDL has the landfall near Ft Myers.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO WILMA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES... 290 KM... SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...12 KM/HR. A
MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...16.7 N... 81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[skysummit]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 12Z OCT 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.2 80.3 320./ 4.1
6 16.4 81.3 279./ 9.4
12 16.5 82.1 279./ 8.1
18 16.9 82.9 297./ 8.6
24 17.3 83.8 297./ 9.4
30 17.8 84.6 298./ 8.9
36 18.0 85.3 291./ 7.3
42 18.4 85.8 301./ 6.1
48 18.9 86.2 327./ 6.6
54 19.5 86.4 337./ 5.7
60 20.2 86.6 349./ 7.1
66 20.7 86.7 352./ 5.7
72 21.4 86.6 8./ 6.8
78 22.0 86.4 16./ 6.0
84 22.5 86.0 41./ 6.1
90 23.1 85.5 37./ 8.2
96 23.9 85.0 34./ 9.0
102 24.7 84.0 50./11.4
108 25.8 82.5 52./17.9
114 27.4 80.5 52./23.8
120 29.5 77.9 51./31.3
126 32.2 74.6 51./39.1



12z GFDL has the landfall near Ft Myers.

Ohhh....it'll move again.

[WeatherEmperor]

it looks like the GFDL has shifted a little bit south from its previous 6Z run.

<RICKY>

[cjrciadt]

80mph and 975mb estimated for the 2pm advisory.

[LanceW]

[b]
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

The GFDL gets info from the GFS right? So a south shift is not unexpected.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like all the models are moving S. Joe B did call for development, but I don't see how Jacksonville gets hurricane gusts from a system likely to go through the southern portion of the state and maybe miss the state??

Joe B is covered, he called for landfall cedar key to the keys with jx possible for hurricane force winds, pretty much the whole penninsula.

[SouthFloridawx]

[skysummit]

Looks like all the models are moving S. Joe B did call for development, but I don't see how Jacksonville gets hurricane gusts from a system likely to go through the southern portion of the state and maybe miss the state??

Joe B is covered, he called for landfall cedar key to the keys with jx possible for hurricane force winds, pretty much the whole penninsula.

...and that's how he does his forecast. No matter where it makes landfall, he can say "I told you so".

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

We all like to comment and jump on each model run, even though we are all fully aware that they will shift and change right up until landfall, especially with this sort of difficult angle/curve to accomplish! But we should all remember that right now the models are chugging out their data before the sampling of the atmosphere has occurred. I want to wait for the models after they can digest the new atmospheric recon data! -Also, how is that front doing and the CONUS weather shaping up that is supposed to affect Wilma? I haven't seen any posts about the synoptics that are changing to justify any model changes. IS the front moving faster or slower? Is it stronger or weaker? Is it going to dig deep or not? How strong are the High's? etc.
Anyone have any of the details on the "other stuff" around Wilma?
-this is the stuff we should all want to hear about so we can learn more!

[El Nino]

GFDL really going for a cat4 borderline with windspeed around 110 kts at landfall, even above at the end of the run ! Someone has SST on the E coast ?

[cjrciadt]

[JamesFromMaine2]