Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[Bgator]

Am i wrong to assume the NHC track should shift S now that the Bam's, Ukmet, and GFDL shifted S???

They may shift a little, but they won't make a big shift in case they go back north later.

I criticised them for not shifting the FL Katrina landfall..I was Sure it was coming in WPB...They Stuck to that track stubbornly...It paid off..

Katrina didnt go to WPB it made landfall in SOuth broward and went thru dade~!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Am i wrong to assume the NHC track should shift S now that the Bam's, Ukmet, and GFDL shifted S???

They may shift a little, but they won't make a big shift in case they go back north later.

I criticised them for not shifting the FL Katrina landfall..I was Sure it was coming in WPB...They Stuck to that track stubbornly...It paid off..

Katrina didnt go to WPB it made landfall in SOuth broward and went thru dade~!

Thanks for the tip..That was my point...NHC was dead on for 5 days

[Brent]

Am i wrong to assume the NHC track should shift S now that the Bam's, Ukmet, and GFDL shifted S???

They may shift a little, but they won't make a big shift in case they go back north later.

I criticised them for not shifting the FL Katrina landfall..I was Sure it was coming in WPB...They Stuck to that track stubbornly...It paid off..

Katrina didnt go to WPB it made landfall in SOuth broward and went thru dade~!

That was his point... HE was saying WPB but the NHC kept saying Dade/Broward line which was correct.

[jax]

67 knots found=69.34 mph at the surface...

back down to a TS?

[gatorcane]

I work at Home Depot and people are not to concerned about Wilma because they don't think it will be too serious or even hit here.

WAY too much complaceny here. This one is going to rival Jeanne/Frances here in Palm Beach in intensity and people are going to be very surprised what hit them.

finish your preparations soon!

[Canelaw99]

That's the point gator. We can all sit here and think wherever we want about where it will make landfall. I know I've done that. However, I have to trust the folks at the NHC. They've done a remarkable job this year, and I will be getting prepared over these next couple of days. I have a feeling the southern part of the state will be in for it. I might be surprised in a couple days, but the NHC has been sticking with their general thinking, and until they shift majorly one way or another, I'm going with it.

[Brent]

67 knots found=69.34 mph at the surface...

back down to a TS?

Uh... no.

[Scorpion]

67 knots found=69.34 mph at the surface...

back down to a TS?

No they havent sampled the whole storm.

[gatorcane]

WAY too much complaceny here. This one is going to rival Jeanne/Frances here in Palm Beach in intensity and people are going to be very surprised what hit them.

finish your preparations soon!

[Scorpion]

WAY too much complaceny here. This one is going to rival Jeanne/Frances here in Palm Beach in intensity and people are going to be very surprised what hit them.

finish your preparations soon!

No, if it comes in as a 3 it will likely be a 2 in portions of the county and a Cat 1 in most of the county. Much stronger than what was experienced in Frances or Jeanne. There were no Cat 2 conditions in this county in Jeanne.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Any info on the progress of that trough?

[quandary]

GFDL is more than a little crazy if it expects to create a Cat 4 (150mph) storm off the Carolina coast in mid-late October.

[gatorcane]

No, if it comes in as a 3 it will likely be a 2 in portions of the county and a Cat 1 in most of the county. Much stronger than what was experienced in Frances or Jeanne. There were no Cat 2 conditions in this county in Jeanne.

You have to remember that Palm Beach County was on the S. side of both of those storms so they didn't get the worst of them. If this storm passes just south of Palm Beach (which it might) or over Palm Beach, it will be very bad here I'm afraid (the rapid forward speed and the Everglades will hardly weaken it I'm afraid).

[txwatcher91]

GFDL is more than a little crazy if it expects to create a Cat 4 (150mph) storm off the Carolina coast in mid-late October.

Water temps are only warm enough to support a CAT 2 at the most.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0atsst.png

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

GFDL is more than a little crazy if it expects to create a Cat 4 (150mph) storm off the Carolina coast in mid-late October.

This year has been like that!

[Scorpion]

No, if it comes in as a 3 it will likely be a 2 in portions of the county and a Cat 1 in most of the county. Much stronger than what was experienced in Frances or Jeanne. There were no Cat 2 conditions in this county in Jeanne.

You have to remember that Palm Beach County was on the S. side of both of those storms so they didn't get the worst of them. If this storm passes just south of Palm Beach (which it might) or over Palm Beach, it will be very bad here I'm afraid (the rapid forward speed and the Everglades will hardly weaken it I'm afraid).

Yes very bad. If this comes in as a strong 3 which I think it will we will get Cat 2 conditions in parts of the county. Cat 2 winds are very strong and quite devastating.

[Brent]

Any info on the progress of that trough?

It's coming. Expected here Friday Night... and it's gonna be a big one.

[Ivanhater]

she is running south of the forecast points right now

[Bgator]

she is running south of the forecast points right now

by the slightest bit..its neglibible and south wuld mean more south in the long run~

[gatorcane]

so it looks like the transition from hurricane season to fall/winter is going to all happen over FL this weekend and with a bang. After this cane goes by and this strong troughs digs shortly after, it appears most of the GOM is going to get cooled down considerably.