New out from NHC on Weather Channel

luvwinter · #1 Postby **luvwinter** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:57 pm

Reading a report at the tropical update. Meteorologist Warren Madden said received recon update since the 11pm update. The central pressure is down to 901 millibars. He said the eye is only 4 miles wide. Storm is exploding with quick intensification.

ohiostorm · #2 Postby **ohiostorm** » Tue Oct 18, 2005 11:59 pm

How come theres nothing on the NHC site?

luvwinter · #3 Postby **luvwinter** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:00 am

Did not realize someone already posted info. Sorry for posting subject already in existance.

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:05 am

Madden said the eye was smallest he'd ever seen reported out of recon.

ohiostorm · #5 Postby **ohiostorm** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:07 am

It will blossom. Give it time.

luvwinter · #6 Postby **luvwinter** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:10 am

Yes he did say that. He said it was very close to Rita's strength at landfall which was the third lowest pressure on record and that he flew the recon for Rita. Wonder if it will break any records in regard to pressure? Scary stuff. :eek:

luvwinter · #7 Postby **luvwinter** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:14 am

My bad. Report was from recon not NHC. Sorry for the misinformation. :oops:

quandary · #8 Postby **quandary** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:35 am

luvwinter wrote:Yes he did say that. He said it was very close to Rita's strength at landfall which was the third lowest pressure on record and that he flew the recon for Rita. Wonder if it will break any records in regard to pressure? Scary stuff.

It is actually much higher than Rita's strength at landfall (150mph vs 120mph). It is near Katrina at landfall in a sense, but pressure is much much lower, 901 is lower than Katrina. Period. It may yet beat Rita.

I can't believe that when we saw Katrina I was thinking, amazing, I finally got to see the superstorm... a once in a lifetime opportunity. After all the destruction it caused... I really could've lived without it. But then Rita and now Wilma... 3 times a season....

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:36 am

Katrina made it to 902... so it's only 1 mb lower.

luvwinter · #10 Postby **luvwinter** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:57 am

Winds now at 150 mph. I wonder if it will get as strong as far as winds go as the other two were at some point in their existance. Are most in agreement with the path it is projected to take or are there differing opinions?

SamSagnella · #11 Postby **SamSagnella** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:13 am

luvwinter wrote:Are most in agreement with the path it is projected to take or are there differing opinions?

Lets put it this way: the track is more likely to shift north at this point than it is to shift south.

Deb321 · #12 Postby **Deb321** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:44 am

SamSagnella wrote:
luvwinter wrote:Are most in agreement with the path it is projected to take or are there differing opinions?

Lets put it this way: the track is more likely to shift north at this point than it is to shift south.

What makes you think it will track more north Sam?

SamSagnella · #13 Postby **SamSagnella** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:52 am

A deeper, more anchored low requires more energy to displace it from it's trajectory than a shallow system. The longer it takes to turn toward the N (and eventually NE) the farther northward the US landfall location will be. Now that Wilma is now down to 892mb (?!?!??!) then we could start to see her influence her own steering currents.
JMHO and nothing official, of course, but it does make sense. And I'm not saying that the will shift north, I'm saying that it is more likely to do that than go further south.

Deb321 · #14 Postby **Deb321** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:53 am

Thanks Sam I still have so much to learn

krysof · #15 Postby **krysof** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:54 am

imagine if Wilma hit Tampa right now at this intensity

Deb321 · #16 Postby **Deb321** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:55 am

krysof wrote:imagine if Wilma hit Tampa right now at this intensity

I wouldn't even want to imagine anything like that.

f5 · #17 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:09 am

Deb321 wrote:
krysof wrote:imagine if Wilma hit Tampa right now at this intensity

I wouldn't even want to imagine anything like that.

same thing Katrina did to mississippi except it would be wind instead of surge beacuse its not as large

SamSagnella · #18 Postby **SamSagnella** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:14 am

f5 wrote:same thing Katrina did to mississippi except it would be wind instead of surge beacuse its not as large

at least not yet...

this miniscule wind radius can NOT (maybe 'will not' is a better choice) maintain itself for very long before an ERC commences and I have suspicions that the post-ERC Wilma will be much more 'spread out' than she is in her present state.

inotherwords · #19 Postby **inotherwords** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:21 am

SamSagnella wrote:
f5 wrote:same thing Katrina did to mississippi except it would be wind instead of surge beacuse its not as large

at least not yet...

this miniscule wind radius can NOT (maybe 'will not' is a better choice) maintain itself for very long before an ERC commences and I have suspicions that the post-ERC Wilma will be much more 'spread out' than she is in her present state.

I asked this question earlier in the general Wilma thread. I was wondering if a hurricane with such a small eye could develop through a series of ERCs into one with a large eye, or whether it would stay on the small side. The answer I got there is that it would likely stay small. I'm wondering what is correct, as you seem to indicate that it could get large.

f5 · #20 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:23 am

I bet it she can't hold CAT 5 for 12-18 hrs Katrina&Rita did

New out from NHC on Weather Channel

New out from NHC on Weather Channel

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