
Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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The October 22 1921 115 mph CAT 3 that slammed into Anclote Key and flooded Tampa with 11 feet of surge. Hey, I dont like the northward shift on the 00Z run of models. Two pretty good models, NOGAPs & the Navy's version of the GFDL, both take Wilma through the Sarasota-Port Charlotte area. The LBAR continies to shift north near Crystal River now.




Last edited by ronjon on Wed Oct 19, 2005 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- johngaltfla
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floridahurricaneguy wrote:I think the bottom ones are way to far south in my opinion. The good point to make is with all this model shifting, no one is out of the woods.
Matt
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I concur. And why? The screw up with the GFS fluke as some are calling it has a residual effect on the data being used for the BAMM models and GFDL if I've had that explained to me properly on another board and this one. IF that is indeed the case, it could take 12-18 hours for those models to correct with the revised data being input.
IMHO, landfall is between Ft. Myers and Anna Maria Island and this is NOT A WISHCAST. Punta Gorda was mentioned all day until Max Mayfield had his press conference so I'm beginning to give that geographic location a lot of credence and the fluke just head faked us. I looked at the latest loop vs. the forecast positions; indeed it is tracking further east and looks almost due NW.
I hope I'm wrong.

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HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z THU OCT 20 2005
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 894 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 85.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 86.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
0300Z THU OCT 20 2005
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 894 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 200SE 175SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 85.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.8N 86.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 90SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.
IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.
AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.
IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
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