Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Foladar0

#2861 Postby Foladar0 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:22 pm

CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes, it's called a wobble..
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shawn67
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#2862 Postby shawn67 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:24 pm

Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes, it's called a wobble..


Cut her some slack...usually wobble are insignificant but in this situation they can be huge in regards to the amount of this Wilma is on the YP.

Shawn
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2863 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:26 pm

The eye is right over that island. Everything that was on it is likely gone. :eek:
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#2864 Postby EyELeSs1 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:26 pm

a wobble and a slight slowdown in forward speed as well....based on sat
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Foladar0

#2865 Postby Foladar0 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:26 pm

shawn67 wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes, it's called a wobble..


Cut her some slack...usually wobble are insignificant but in this situation they can be huge in regards to the amount of this Wilma is on the YP.

Shawn

Some slack in what regard?
Sorry for trying to answer her question, jeez.
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#2866 Postby k-man » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:27 pm

bigmike wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:
skysummit wrote:Tampa....here you go:

Image
http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/5663/al2420059yv.jpg

I see one model going to Tampa, and I'm sure its the LBAR again. How anyone can justify a threat of a direct hit there or suggest a northward trend in the models, I don't know.


LBAR is junk as is the CLP's models. Bye Bye Naples :eek:


Bye Bye Naples? Um, I'm farily certain that Naples will withstand a Cat One or weak Cat two just fine.
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#2867 Postby stormynorfolk » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:27 pm

Aren't we all friendly today :eek:
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superfly

#2868 Postby superfly » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:28 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The eye is right over that island. Everything that was on it is likely gone. :eek:


Unlikely, a lot of the island is built out of concrete. Severe damage for sure, but they learned their lesson after Gilbert.
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#2869 Postby THead » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:29 pm

shawn67 wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes, it's called a wobble..


Cut her some slack...usually wobble are insignificant but in this situation they can be huge in regards to the amount of this Wilma is on the YP.

Shawn


Looks to be something different than a normal wobble going on here. Like she charged up to the mainland with the edge of her eye, and just stopped and wobbled a bit north, and contracted her eye a bit. I'm going to have to go to therapy if she skirts the coast keeping her eye over water. Because I will then believe these things are some form of intelligent life!
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#2870 Postby JPmia » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The eye is right over that island. Everything that was on it is likely gone. :eek:


I doubt that the City of Cozumel is gone. But there will be lots of devastation all around the island.
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#2871 Postby storms in NC » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:29 pm

CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?


Yes it did but it has been all day Jumping around that is
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CHRISTY

#2872 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:30 pm

if it keeps wobbleing that could spell bad for florida cause its never gonna go completely onland we will see...
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imminent turn/recurve thoughts

#2873 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:30 pm

Just looking at the latest WV imagery, and the cloud pattern of Wilma, it appears to me that an imminent turn/recurve to the N and NE seems likely. Go to the Gomex WV loop at the NHC site:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Then click the boxes for lat/lon and NWS fronts. Doing so will show you how far into the Gulf the trailing front from the Mid-Atlantic low has progressed. You can also see the "base" of this trough in the WV imagery all the way on the north Gulf coast. As a general rule, when a storm gets within 10 degrees of lat/lon of a front/trough, it starts to feel the influence. Within 8 degrees, a front/trough really starts steering that storm. By my reckoning (with the aid of the lat/lon grid), it looks like Wilma is about 8 degreess away from the leading edge of the front. Moreover, her outflow cloud pattern is elongating substantially to the NE and the overall shape of the system is starting to look like it's aligned SW to NE.

I'm only an educated amateur. And all this is just my opinion. But I am skeptical that Wilma will stall for long. I think she'll start moving sooner than anticipated to the NE. We'll see.

-Mike
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#2874 Postby thunderchief » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:31 pm

shawn67 wrote:
Foladar0 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:can someone take a look at a close satilite image and tell me what they see.. i see in the very last image a jump to the north?

Yes, it's called a wobble..


Cut her some slack...usually wobble are insignificant but in this situation they can be huge in regards to the amount of this Wilma is on the YP.

Shawn


just before landfall is the only time to pay attention to the wobbles.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2875 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:33 pm

For the eye right over that island it looks very impressive. It gives Katrina a run. Thats all....


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html
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#2876 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:34 pm

It seems to be stationary right now, POOR COZUMEL.
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#2877 Postby Brent » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:35 pm

HURAKAN wrote:It seems to be stationary right now, POOR COZUMEL.


Actually... Cozumel is getting nice weather right now.
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#neversummer

CHRISTY

#2878 Postby CHRISTY » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:35 pm

yes you can clearly see a north movement on that loop....
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#2879 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:35 pm

That eye is growing around that island. Wow...
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#2880 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:36 pm

At least Cozumel is getting hours of calm instead of eyewall, it has to make a difference. If it continues to long I worry it may not spend to much time over land and is not good news for FL. I think the 5pm will provide some good answers. I did see the N wobble, but I trust the NHC and I'll bet it will move inland this evening.
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