EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
SUNDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS WILMA
ENTERING THE GULF SUNDAY THEN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WITH PASSAGE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EXISTS DUE TO ENCROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TO N FL SAT AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILMA
WILL LIKELY SHOW AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD MON AS SHE BEGINS
TRANSITIONING TO A HYBRID SYSTEM. PSEUDO WARM SECTOR LIFTING NWD
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH APCH OF SYS WL
POTENTIALLY INCREASE TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AND WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE FOR LIKELIHOOD OR THIS OCCURRING LATER
THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT PATH BRINGS THE HIGHEST RISK FROM STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT ALL OF EC FL MAY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST TROP STORM FORCE WINDS IN A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW OF 5 TO 7
HOURS. PERSONS ARE URGED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND BE READY TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS FROM WILMA.
Could this be a hybrid system at 2nd landfall?
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I just found this in the Analysis forum posted in NEXRAD'S forecast.....
"Current model guidance suggests that Wilma may transition into a subtropical or extratropical system as it moves near or over Florida. This scenario would cause Wilma to behave more like a Florida Nor’Easter than a hurricane, and because of this consideration, special concern is had not only for South Florida but also Central, North Florida, and even the Big Bend region."
I guess that answers my question. Thanks!
Eric
"Current model guidance suggests that Wilma may transition into a subtropical or extratropical system as it moves near or over Florida. This scenario would cause Wilma to behave more like a Florida Nor’Easter than a hurricane, and because of this consideration, special concern is had not only for South Florida but also Central, North Florida, and even the Big Bend region."
I guess that answers my question. Thanks!
Eric
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