Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[tallywx]

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ?

Not really. Storms can replace their eyewalls anytime, it doesn't have to be over water.

Curious, were there any storms that had an ERC over land, well at least since we've had the instrument to see it ?

Yes. In fact, every storm that stalls over land with a portion of its circulation over water experiences a weakening/collapse of the inner core whilst the outer part of the circulation maintains more of its vigor because it remains over water. What we see here is textbook physics, folks: the inner core has been disrupted by friction from land and lack of a heat source, while the outer circulation remains robust. Since Wilma didn't move too far inland, enough of the circulation remained over water for an eyewall to form.

So now here's the kicker: the fact that the inner core HAS collapsed may mean the storm MIGHT NOT strengthen as rapidly as some here are thinking. The reason is that storms that have lost their inner core, as Wilma has by definition of the 75 mi wide eye, have a tough time tightening up again. That's why Frances in 2004 never recovered, even over the Gulf stream, and didn't strengthen before hitting Florida. That's why so many other storms that have lost their inner core, like Isidore in 2002 after the Yucatan, couldn't strengthen whatsoever.

Dennis spent 12-18 hours over Cuba and was able to re-intensify. Is there something different with Wilma that will prevent that from happening here?

Dennis was in a completely different (better) shape upon leaving Cuba in this important respect: it still had a tight inner core intact, meaning it could spin up rapidly (and did). Here is the image from recon:

[img]ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2005/al04.2005/0709/0430/col08deg.png[/img]

We don't have that in Wilma at all. Her inner core has collapsed, and thus her recovery is less certain.

[jkt21787]

You know that ARW (HWRF) model? I made a post (and someone else started a new thread) about the 00z run. Well, the 12z run came out, and it looks much more realistic. It intensifies Wilma to a Cat 4, followed by a Cat 3 at landfall near Ft. Myers. Its projection of re-intensification to a Cat 3 after exiting Florida looks suspect. I can't get an image to show up on this post, so I'll show a link to it:

ARW hurricane track

LOL, I just made a post about it on the previous page . You are right, much more reasonable. I hope maybe it calms down a few folks a bit. Still of course a 3 (and I believe it shows a marginal 3...115 mph) is nothing to sneeze at.

[f5]

ERC over land, is that not paradoxical. ?

Not really. Storms can replace their eyewalls anytime, it doesn't have to be over water.

Curious, were there any storms that had an ERC over land, well at least since we've had the instrument to see it ?

Yes. In fact, every storm that stalls over land with a portion of its circulation over water experiences a weakening/collapse of the inner core whilst the outer part of the circulation maintains more of its vigor because it remains over water. What we see here is textbook physics, folks: the inner core has been disrupted by friction from land and lack of a heat source, while the outer circulation remains robust. Since Wilma didn't move too far inland, enough of the circulation remained over water for an eyewall to form.

So now here's the kicker: the fact that the inner core HAS collapsed may mean the storm MIGHT NOT strengthen as rapidly as some here are thinking. The reason is that storms that have lost their inner core, as Wilma has by definition of the 75 mi wide eye, have a tough time tightening up again. That's why Frances in 2004 never recovered, even over the Gulf stream, and didn't strengthen before hitting Florida. That's why so many other storms that have lost their inner core, like Isidore in 2002 after the Yucatan, couldn't strengthen whatsoever.

Dennis spent 12-18 hours over Cuba and was able to re-intensify. Is there something different with Wilma that will prevent that from happening here?

Dennis was in a completely different (better) shape upon leaving Cuba in this important respect: it still had a tight inner core intact, meaning it could spin up rapidly (and did). Here is the image from recon:

[img]ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2005/al04.2005/0709/0430/col08deg.png[/img]

We don't have that in Wilma at all. Her inner core has collapsed, and thus her recovery is less certain.

Dennis had a pinhole size eye with Hurricane force winds extending only 40 mi out from the center

[jkt21787]

Dennis had a pinhole size eye with Hurricane force winds extending only 40 mi out from the center

Exactly. Its inner core was still very tight. Wilma has a much more spread out windfield and core, which takes much longer to organize. Explosive deepning ala Dennis is highly unlikely at this time.

[THead]

The 12z ARW HWRF 4km, which earlier indicated a cat 4/5 landfall for FL, has now seriously toned down, indicating a 2/3 at landfall. This is very reasonable and much more likely. It NEVER takes the storm above cat 3 status.

Lets tone down this talk of cat 4/5 now please...

EDIT...I take that back. It BRIEFLY takes the storm to cat 4 over the loop current, then begins to weaken it. Still not that unreasonable. Still the 4/5 talk needs to come down a bit, its running rampant and is alarming some folks who are taking the data seriously.

Thats all I have ever been saying, cat 4 over the loop, then weakening slightly. I'm not buying a rapid weakening scenario mainly just due to the amount of time its going to take (not much) to get to the SW fla. coast. It could be making landfall just 12 hours after it reaches it new strongest point.

[brunota2003]

is it true that someone got 64" of rain in 24 hours from Wilma? If so, isnt that yet another record for this season? Also, is there a record for the most records broken in one season? If so, this season takes the cake...

[superfly]

is it true that someone got 64" of rain in 24 hours from Wilma? If so, isnt that yet another record for this season? Also, is there a record for the most records broken in one season? If so, this season takes the cake...

The record for most records broken in one season is the first recorded season.

[WindRunner]

is it true that someone got 64" of rain in 24 hours from Wilma? If so, isnt that yet another record for this season? Also, is there a record for the most records broken in one season? If so, this season takes the cake...

The record for most records broken in one season is the first recorded season.

Thank you for saying what I was thinking.

[calculatedrisk]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.2 87.1 360./ 1.9
6 21.5 87.1 6./ 2.9
12 21.8 87.0 18./ 3.4
18 22.6 86.6 27./ 8.4
24 23.1 86.0 47./ 7.7
30 23.9 85.0 52./11.6
36 24.8 83.7 56./14.8
42 25.9 81.9 58./20.3
48 27.6 79.5 54./26.7
54 29.7 76.6 55./33.4
60 32.9 73.3 45./42.7
66 37.0 70.0 39./49.0
72 41.0 67.2 35./45.2
78 43.6 66.8 10./26.2
84 45.3 67.7 332./17.7
90 46.2 68.5 320./11.1
96 47.0 68.3 16./ 7.3
102 47.3 66.9 76./10.1
108 47.9 64.4 77./17.7
114 48.4 62.0 77./16.5
120 48.6 59.7 86./15.7
126 48.7 55.8 88./25.4

[Tstormwatcher]

is it true that someone got 64" of rain in 24 hours from Wilma? If so, isnt that yet another record for this season? Also, is there a record for the most records broken in one season? If so, this season takes the cake...

That is what the weather channel was saying. It is an island just to the northeast of Cancun.

[WindRunner]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 22

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.2 87.1 360./ 1.9
6 21.5 87.1 6./ 2.9
12 21.8 87.0 18./ 3.4
18 22.6 86.6 27./ 8.4
24 23.1 86.0 47./ 7.7
30 23.9 85.0 52./11.6
36 24.8 83.7 56./14.8
42 25.9 81.9 58./20.3
48 27.6 79.5 54./26.7
54 29.7 76.6 55./33.4
60 32.9 73.3 45./42.7
66 37.0 70.0 39./49.0
72 41.0 67.2 35./45.2
78 43.6 66.8 10./26.2
84 45.3 67.7 332./17.7
90 46.2 68.5 320./11.1
96 47.0 68.3 16./ 7.3
102 47.3 66.9 76./10.1
108 47.9 64.4 77./17.7
114 48.4 62.0 77./16.5
120 48.6 59.7 86./15.7
126 48.7 55.8 88./25.4

That's an old run.

[jkt21787]

That's an old run.

No its not. Thats the new run (18z)

[calculatedrisk]

That's an old run.

Yeah, almost 2 minutes old.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

model ma[ link? -one that has a bunch of the models on it. please?

[cycloneye]

That is the latest GFDL run.

[jkt21787]

GFDL has shifted back south it looks like.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...CENTER OF WILMA MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY NORTHWARD TO STEINHATCHEE
RIVER... AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF
TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... ABOUT 30 MILES... 50
KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 390 MILES... 630
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 5 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY THREE STATUS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THE HURRICANE HUNTER
WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL
CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE
CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 20 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
APPROACHING 50 INCHES. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING
THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...21.6 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Canelaw99]

jk - you just answered my question

[WindRunner]

Yeah, sorry, I got 00Z in my head as we approach the new models.

[gtalum]

Check out the Mexico board at stormcarib.com. Kevin from Cancun just came back online and posted some more pictures. The damage looks bad but not as catastrophic as I had imagined.