Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[thermos]

More obs decoding stuff. possibly unhelpful.
http://www.etl.noaa.gov/programs/2002/p ... t_obs.html

[Brent]

What time for landfall ? Still 7AM ? Of course, I'm at work at this moment and back 2h later !

Within a couple of hours of that, yes.

[storms in NC]

THere's some significant shearing on the far northern edge of the storm.

Where?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[THead]

hmmm that is interesting on the last IR frame (20:15)

eye looks covered up but you see a huge blow up of convection on the NE side wincluding some gray

Yep, Vis pic showing the eye clouded over again, but a good size blowup on the N and E.

[El Nino]

THere's some significant shearing on the far northern edge of the storm.

Where?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Maybe this is significant deep convection

[THead]

That Key West radar is going to give us a good look at her on her way in. Hopefully it will stay up, it should.

[orion]

I was hoping to completely finish this before 'going live'... but for those interested I'm uploading GRlevel3 radar loops of Wilma as she approaches Florida.

The purple rectangle is a tornado warning area, but I have turned it off since it was covering southern Florida so it should disappear as more images are uploaded. The red track is the NHC official forcast track.

http://digital-ink-graphics.net/weather then click on radar images

Now, I hope my server doesn't explode

~orion

[cjrciadt]

latest windfield.

[Brent]

Am I reading that right? No hurricane force winds in most of the northern part of the circulation?

[THead]

I was hoping to completely finish this before 'going live'... but for those interested I'm uploading GRlevel3 radar loops of Wilma as she approaches Florida.

The purple rectangle is a tornado warning area, but I have turned it off since it was covering southern Florida so it should disappear as more images are uploaded. The red track is the NHC official forcast track.

http://digital-ink-graphics.net/weather then click on radar images

Now, I hope my server doesn't explode

~orion

Very nice! Thanks!

[6SpeedTA95]

THere's some significant shearing on the far northern edge of the storm.

Where?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Put it on the loop and go straight west of ft meyers and tampa, basically the area straight west of naples and north on the visible, IR and WV you can see it being shearing.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND APPROACHING
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 295 MILES...
475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE
SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW ARE NEAR 105
MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR
CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF
WILMA...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
39 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY
BEEN REPORTED IN HAVANA CUBA.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... AND 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE KEYS... THROUGH
TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...23.5 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
2100Z SUN OCT 23 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 45 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 65NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..325NE 300SE 175SW 325NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 24.8N 83.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 175SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.6N 79.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 30NW.
50 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 200SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 32.2N 74.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 225SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 38.5N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 46.5N 61.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 175SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 49.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 50.0N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[WindRunner]

I think this surge forecast went up:

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL.

[jkt21787]

There is a flurry of recon data coming in, but surface dropsondes now support 105 mph. VDM, eye dropsonde show 959 mb.

[cjrciadt]

959mb with a 45mile eye with 96kt in the latest vortex.

[6SpeedTA95]

Those last two frames the 19:45 and the 20:15 show a more easterly track, I wonder if that will hold. Perhaps Alpha is having a bigger impact than first thought?

[Brent]

There is a flurry of recon data coming in, but surface dropsondes now support 105 mph. VDM, eye dropsonde show 959 mb.

Yep...

[WindRunner]

And a 7C temp gradient with the eye. She's goin' down tonight, folks!

[WindRunner]

Actual vortex message:

627
URNT12 KNHC 232053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:30:10Z
B. 23 deg 34 min N
085 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 144 deg 088 kt
G. 044 deg 052 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 8 C/ 3055 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C45
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 32
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z