Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Jevo
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#4741 Postby Jevo » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:42 pm

Wacahootaman wrote:Check out the cold front on the floater.

Earlier today it was stationary. Now it is a cold front again. If it pushes further south, Wilma will go south too I bet.

It would not surprise me if the eye went right over Key West :eek:


Youd have to hope at least one model would pick up on this track... All of the dynamic, track, and most of the globals are pretty much stacked on the same solution.. and those that arent..... are north (not by much)

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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.

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#4742 Postby THead » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:42 pm

Cronk, that vis is 2 hours old, looks alot different now.
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#4743 Postby El Nino » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:42 pm

Hmmm this red deep convection with a small piece of very deep grey convection is quite ... interesting.
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#4744 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:43 pm

There's very little wind here- stagnant and humid outside. I can't
wait for that nice coldfront.

That wind will pick up though.
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#4745 Postby THead » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:43 pm

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#4746 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:44 pm

THead wrote:Cronk, that vis is 2 hours old, looks alot different now.


nevermind...weird i clicked on the props for the last image and the older ones came up when i posted it here...whoops
Last edited by CronkPSU on Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#4747 Postby soonertwister » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:44 pm

Very shortly the conditions are going to be going rapidly downhill in the lower Keys, and it's going to last for quite a while, though nothing like what happened at Cozumel or Cancun.

But I'd be REALLY concerned about storm surge down there, because I think it could be pretty bad.

I heard a number earlier today that 25,000 people didn't evac the Keys. That's about 25,000 too many.
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#4748 Postby THead » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:44 pm

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#4749 Postby markymark8 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:45 pm

Notice how the word SHEAR is now is being not much of a factor maybe now not till after landfall in the NHC 5pm discussion. I can see her being a being a marginal to moderate Cat 3 now if her core keeps on getting its act together. This is not good news for Florida especially places like Marco Island which could see a surge of 17 feet or more. The everglades are gonna take a pounding too. Good thing its not a populated area. U all in florida better take Wilma more serious. I have a feeling there will be alot of idiots out in the storm thinking it will be a bad thunderstorm. For example when Katrina hit southeast Florida people went out during the eye to go to try to find stores still open to get food or supplies and There ended up being alot of people calling 911 in their cars stranded on the side of the road scared to death because they thought the worst was over and didnt realize the Eastern eyewall still had to come through and wanted somebody to come get them. :roll:
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#4750 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:46 pm

soonertwister wrote:Very shortly the conditions are going to be going rapidly downhill in the lower Keys, and it's going to last for quite a while, though nothing like what happened at Cozumel or Cancun.

But I'd be REALLY concerned about storm surge down there, because I think it could be pretty bad.

I heard a number earlier today that 25,000 people didn't evac the Keys. That's about 25,000 too many.

:werd: I dont really understand why when you live on a little island thats barely 10 feet above sea level at a high point you dont leave. I just dont get it. Storm surge will probably be on the order of 15 feet with this storm. Thats significant.
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#4751 Postby inotherwords » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:47 pm

Big windy thunderstorm right now near Venice. Our first feeder band?

How is the weather elsewhere?
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#4752 Postby WindRunner » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:47 pm

Look at that grey in the NE quad! Like I said, she's going down tonight!
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#4753 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:48 pm

when is high tide for the keys?
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#4754 Postby tampastorm » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:49 pm

Is it me or the last few frames show a serious north wobble?
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#4755 Postby wxwatcher2 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:50 pm

WindRunner wrote:Look at that grey in the NE quad! Like I said, she's going down tonight!


In English please....what do you mean by she is going down tonight.
do you mean it will die down or that it will intensify?
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#4756 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:50 pm

still right on track according the overlays....my eyes see it too though when i don't have the forecast points up there
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#4757 Postby soonertwister » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:51 pm

inotherwords wrote:Big windy thunderstorm right now near Venice. Our first feeder band?

How is the weather elsewhere?


Appears to be, but it won't be going back to the hurricane because the outer bands are being sheared off to the NNE. But nearer to the eye, Wilma keeps looking better by the hour. The appearing of intensely cold high cloud tops is not a good sign.
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#4758 Postby ronibaida » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:51 pm

People!!... understand that thousands of people did not evacuate becuase she is a cat 2, but i bet it will get to cat4... People are in deep poop!!!!!!!!
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#4759 Postby Raebie » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:51 pm

CronkPSU wrote:when is high tide for the keys?


I believe high tide is due around 2:30 AM. Not good timing.
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#4760 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 4:53 pm

wxwatcher2 wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Look at that grey in the NE quad! Like I said, she's going down tonight!


In English please....what do you mean by she is going down tonight.
do you mean it will die down or that it will intensify?


WindRunner means the pressure will drop meaning strengthening. Grey is more intense(colder) than any of the other colors on IR.
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