Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#5081 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:49 pm

Patrick99 wrote:
DrStorm wrote:So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?


Most of it, yes....there is the small town of Everglades City and village of Chokoloskee, but they are sparsely populated. South of Naples, that's the 10,000 Islands region....a near impenetrable maze of mangrove islands. Not a whole lot there.

She's getting that "donut" back.



I think it could become a cat4 before landfall...130 to 135 mph. In the data supports more like 120 to 125 mph now.
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#5082 Postby DrStorm » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:50 pm

swimaster20 wrote:Hmmmm...I should let by-gones be by-gones but I can't help myself. Where are all the people saying Wilma would be no more than a TS at its Florida landfall?


They probably evacuated.
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#5083 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:51 pm

DrStorm wrote:So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?


Well.. in theory. But Miami/Fort Lauerdale/West Palm Beach is just a stone's throw away. It's going to be bad. Katrina was a TINY Cat 1... this is going to be a LARGE Cat 2... a MAJOR difference, and Katrina caused a big mess.
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#5084 Postby Typhoon » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:51 pm

A max wind of only 105kt was found in the SE quadrant this time.
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#5085 Postby O Town » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:52 pm

Just thought I would post a different view of Wilma. It is such a pretty one. And you can really see how big she is, ecspecially compared with Fla.
Image
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#5086 Postby thermos » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:52 pm

Brent wrote:
DrStorm wrote:So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?


Well.. in theory. But Miami/Fort Lauerdale/West Palm Beach is just a stone's throw away. It's going to be bad. Katrina was a TINY Cat 1... this is going to be a LARGE Cat 2... a MAJOR difference, and Katrina caused a big mess.


Still a strong Cat 2 in Miami? Yikes. Lots of broken skyscraper windows there will be.
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#5087 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:55 pm

thermos wrote:
Brent wrote:
DrStorm wrote:So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?


Well.. in theory. But Miami/Fort Lauerdale/West Palm Beach is just a stone's throw away. It's going to be bad. Katrina was a TINY Cat 1... this is going to be a LARGE Cat 2... a MAJOR difference, and Katrina caused a big mess.


Still a strong Cat 2 in Miami? Yikes. Lots of broken skyscraper windows there will be.


Maybe not a Strong 2... but a 2 nonetheless. At least 100 mph sustained winds.

Direct from the NHC:

SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
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#5088 Postby jpigott » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:55 pm

i think Wilma has peaked. The latest IR image doesn't quite seem as impressive
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#5089 Postby DrStorm » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:55 pm

thermos wrote:Still a strong Cat 2 in Miami? Yikes. Lots of broken skyscraper windows there will be.


Yoda, is that you?
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#5090 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:55 pm

Typhoon wrote:A max wind of only 105kt was found in the SE quadrant this time.

Convection is decreasing in the SE, thats why. Good news since the SE would normally be the strongest here (its the right front quadtrant)
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#5091 Postby thermos » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:56 pm

Brent wrote:
DrStorm wrote:So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?


Well.. in theory. But Miami/Fort Lauerdale/West Palm Beach is just a stone's throw away. It's going to be bad. Katrina was a TINY Cat 1... this is going to be a LARGE Cat 2... a MAJOR difference, and Katrina caused a big mess.


Still a strong Cat 2 in Miami? Yikes. Lots of broken skyscraper windows there will be.
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#5092 Postby Patrick99 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:56 pm

swimaster20 wrote:Hmmmm...I should let by-gones be by-gones but I can't help myself. Where are all the people saying Wilma would be no more than a TS at its Florida landfall?


I count myself as one of them. I'm back to eat crow, definitely.
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#5093 Postby theworld » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:00 pm

She's now a Cat 3. :-(
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#5094 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:01 pm

jpigott wrote:i think Wilma has peaked. The latest IR image doesn't quite seem as impressive

I'm tended to agree with that. Probably won't go above 115. Crow is standing by though.
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#5095 Postby tampastorm » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:03 pm

Just came in from walking my dog, VERY windy out already.
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#5096 Postby Brent » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:03 pm

thermos wrote:
Brent wrote:
DrStorm wrote:So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?


Well.. in theory. But Miami/Fort Lauerdale/West Palm Beach is just a stone's throw away. It's going to be bad. Katrina was a TINY Cat 1... this is going to be a LARGE Cat 2... a MAJOR difference, and Katrina caused a big mess.


Still a strong Cat 2 in Miami? Yikes. Lots of broken skyscraper windows there will be.


Yep... from the NHC:

SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
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#5097 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:04 pm

talk about scary....watch the monset creep into the screen

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radbyx.html
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#5098 Postby markymark8 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:04 pm

Naples and south Ft. Myers are going to get slammed. They will be on the worst side of the storm. The North and East are now the worst part of the storm. You cant just look in one area for the worst damage beacuse her eyewall is huge and so is her windfield. Alot of central and south Florida will have damage as well as power outages.
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#5099 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:06 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:
DrStorm wrote:So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?


Most of it, yes....there is the small town of Everglades City and village of Chokoloskee, but they are sparsely populated. South of Naples, that's the 10,000 Islands region....a near impenetrable maze of mangrove islands. Not a whole lot there.

She's getting that "donut" back.



I think it could become a cat4 before landfall...130 to 135 mph. In the data supports more like 120 to 125 mph now.



Well, I don't have my own opinion on this either way, but the NHC does. This is from their latest advisory. Guess they aren't expecting it to gain anymore strength from here on out, perhaps because of the large eye.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
"Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Little change in strength is expected until landfall occurs
...And Wilma will likely make landfall as a category 3 hurricane.
Some slow weakening is forecast as Wilma crosses the southern
Florida Peninsula... but the hurricane is forecast to still be a
significant category two hurricane by the time the center reaches
the Florida East Coast early Monday afternoon."""
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
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#5100 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:09 pm

Actually what is surprising?

The NHC has been almost dead on. The possibility of a cat 3 has been mentioned and talked about in their discussions. Let's just hope it stays at a minimum status quo or even weakens.
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