Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[jrtalon]

why doesn't the NHC like to increase the strength more the 5mph at a time? It seems that unless recon comes back with winds significantly higher like when Wilma, Dennis, Katrina, Rita bombed out, they don't like to raise it all at once to what recon has reported.

For example I just read Derek Ortt's report saying recon found 114kt flight level that equals 105kts surface. Now if I'm sitting down there on Ft. Myers beach saying well its only 5mph more I'm going to say put, but if I saw that it went to 120+ mph and is still strengthening then its well I think its time to get in the car and drink inland a bit to a shelter.

[tampastorm]

I guess I am very tired, because everytime I look at the "wilma loop" on weather underground I see more and more of a north movement, I guess its beds time,lol.

[CronkPSU]

i hate when the discussions come out late

[CronkPSU]

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg">

[johngaltfla]

So pretty much everything South of Maples on the West side of the FL coast is just empty wetlands right? That may turn out to be best possible scenario then?

Well.. in theory. But Miami/Fort Lauerdale/West Palm Beach is just a stone's throw away. It's going to be bad. Katrina was a TINY Cat 1... this is going to be a LARGE Cat 2... a MAJOR difference, and Katrina caused a big mess.

Still a strong Cat 2 in Miami? Yikes. Lots of broken skyscraper windows there will be.

Yep... from the NHC:

SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

This is the same NHC which predicted "significant" weakening of Katrina when it passed through the very same Everglades; right?

[Brent]

This discussion is gonna be good...

[WxGuy1]

So what happened to:

1) the shear that was supposed to weaken this

2) the dry air that was supposed to weaken this

both haven't done anything to this

Chris,

Do you even read the official forecasts?! The NHC had predicted weak strengthening once it moved off the Yucatan! I don't think many WEREN'T forecasting modest strengthening as it moved over some warmer water. In fact, the 10am NHC discussion said:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

Modest strengthening was NOT unforeseen by most. Conditions do start to go downhill tonight though, thus the reason why the NHC was forecasting borderline Cat 2/3 at landfall. Shear will increase tonight, and the effects from dry air may begin to hit the cyclone as well.

For what it's worth, a 10mph increase in forward speed that we've seen today almost accounts entirely for the 15mph wind increase we've seen since morning. The storm will continue to increase in forward speed, so the max winds may increase a tad (or hold steady) owing not to the cyclone actually deepening, but merely because of the increase in storm motion yielding a stronger ground-relative winds.

[CronkPSU]

URNT12 KNHC 240310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/02:46:30Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
083 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2733 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 215 deg 105 kt
G. 123 deg 036 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 9 C/ 3037 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 320 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR

[mtm4319]

From the looks of it, the worst of the weather on the east coast is going to stay from Fort Lauderdale northward. It's already at Key West's latitude, so I'm not sure why people are saying Miami will get a cat 2.

[superfly]

Better be good, it's at least 20 minutes late.

[jrtalon]

anyone else looking at the weather station from hurricanetrack.com
http://hurricanetrack.com/Wind/
There wind guage isn't working but I noticed the pressure has dropped below 1000mb and I just refreshed it it dropped another 1mb to 998.

anyone else know of any weather stations along the west coast?

[wxmann_91]

i hate when the discussions come out late

It's well worth the wait, it's a Stewart disco.

[tampastorm]

Like I already said, I think I see a slight more North movement, if this is so, slight movement is huge in this stage of the game.

[CronkPSU]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 35

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2005

Wilma has continued to become better organized this evening with the
large 45 nmi diameter becoming very distinct in both satellite and
radar imagery. Air Force recon found 700 mb flight-level winds of
114 kt in the northeast quadrant at 0104z... which equals about 103
kt surface winds. Doppler velocity data from Key West has also been
as high as 109 kt at 12000 ft. The central pressure has decreased
to 958 mb... or about 104 kt using a Standard pressure-wind
relationship. Based on this wind information and the continued
increase in the eyewall convection... the initial intensity has
been conservatively increased to 100 kt... or category three/major
hurricane status. A recon vortex message just handed to ME now
indicates the pressure has decreased to 957 mb.


The initial motion is 050/16. Due to a slight northward tilt... the
surface center has been placed about one-tenth of a degree south of
the recon positions. Wilma has increased its forward speed by 4 kt
during the past 6 hours... and continued acceleration is expected
for the next 24 hours. Wilma will likely be moving at forward
speeds of 20 kt or greater when it reaches the southwestern Florida
coast and crosses over the southern Florida Peninsula. The NHC
model guidance is now tightly packed around the previous forecast
track... so no significant changes were made other than to increase
forward speed at all times... especially after Wilma emerges over
the western Atlantic. In the short term... water vapor imagery...
00z upper-air data... and dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet
aircraft indicate the deep layer trough over the central U.S. Has
extended its influence into the western and central Gulf of Mexico.
Westerly mid-level winds of 15-20 kt are now impinging on the
western side of Wilma... so a continued northeastward motion toward
the southwest Florida coast and across the southern Florida seems
likely. Therefore... a track from Collier County to near Lake
Okeechobee and exiting Palm Beach County during the next 18 hours
seems quite reasonable. However... given that Wilma has a 40-50 nmi
diameter eye... hurricane-force winds will extend well away from
where the exact center passes. In the longer term... once Wilma
emerges over the Atlantic... the deep layer trough is forecast to
continue digging sharply southward over the southeastern U.S. And
the Gulf of Mexico. This should act to lift Wilma rapidly northeast
to north-northeastward and continue to accelerate the hurricane off
the U.S. East Coast... with a possible second landfall occurring
over Nova Scotia as a powerful and very large extratropical low
pressure system. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous forecast... and is close to the NHC GUNA consensus model.

Now that Wilma has accelerated northeastward... the effects of any
upper-level shear should be minimized right up until the hurricane
reaches the Florida East Coast. The various global models indicate
the dual outflow channels should remain intact until Wilma reaches
the Atlantic Ocean... which favor at least sustaining the current
intensity. Eyes this large are also more stable and are more
resistant to vertical shear. As such... Wilma is expected to be a
major hurricane at landfall along the southwest Florida coast early
Monday morning. However... another 5-kt increase in intensity may
occur while Wilma remains over the slightly warmer Gulf loop
current. Given the fast forward speed expected as Wilma traverses
the southern Florida Peninsula... less weakening should occur as
compared to typical hurricanes moving over land. Therefore... Wilma
is expected to be a category two hurricane when it reaches the
Florida East Coast. After emerging over the Atlantic... increasing
vertical shear in excess of 50 kt and merger with a frontal system
should result in Wilma transitioning into a significant
extratropical winter-type storm system... which may produce a large
gale area on the west side of the storm that could affect portions
of the U.S. East Coast and the Canadian Maritimes.


Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 24/0300z 24.4n 83.7w 100 kt
12hr VT 24/1200z 26.2n 81.2w 100 kt...inland swrn Florida
24hr VT 25/0000z 30.2n 76.3w 75 kt...over Atlantic
36hr VT 25/1200z 36.5n 69.9w 65 kt...becoming extratropical
48hr VT 26/0000z 42.9n 64.7w 60 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 27/0000z 48.0n 60.0w 55 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 28/0000z 49.5n 49.5w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 29/0000z 50.0n 38.0w 55 kt...extratropical


$$

[johngaltfla]

i hate when the discussions come out late

It's well worth the wait, it's a Stewart disco.

Stewart's discos rock. I can't wait to read it.

[Bgator]

From the looks of it, the worst of the weather on the east coast is going to stay from Fort Lauderdale northward. It's already at Key West's latitude, so I'm not sure why people are saying Miami will get a cat 2.

The weather will be to the south and the eye is 55miles wide, some of the eye will pass over dade, and strongest winds o south, miami gets cat 2!

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

WILMA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH THE
LARGE 45 NMI DIAMETER BECOMING VERY DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
114 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0104Z... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 103
KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM KEY WEST HAS ALSO BEEN
AS HIGH AS 109 KT AT 12000 FT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED
TO 958 MB... OR ABOUT 104 KT USING A STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND
RELATIONSHIP. BASED ON THIS WIND INFORMATION AND THE CONTINUED
INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL CONVECTION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 100 KT... OR CATEGORY THREE/MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS. A RECON VORTEX MESSAGE JUST HANDED TO ME NOW
INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 957 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/16. DUE TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TILT... THE
SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ABOUT ONE-TENTH OF A DEGREE SOUTH OF
THE RECON POSITIONS. WILMA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED BY 4 KT
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND CONTINUED ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA WILL LIKELY BE MOVING AT FORWARD
SPEEDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
COAST AND CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK... SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE
FORWARD SPEED AT ALL TIMES... ESPECIALLY AFTER WILMA EMERGES OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
00Z UPPER-AIR DATA... AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HAS
EXTENDED ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOW IMPINGING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF WILMA... SO A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA SEEMS
LIKELY. THEREFORE... A TRACK FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND EXITING PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS
SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT WILMA HAS A 40-50 NMI
DIAMETER EYE... HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM
WHERE THE EXACT CENTER PASSES. IN THE LONGER TERM... ONCE WILMA
EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ACT TO LIFT WILMA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST... WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURRING
OVER NOVA SCOTIA AS A POWERFUL AND VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.

NOW THAT WILMA HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD... THE EFFECTS OF ANY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMIZED RIGHT UP UNTIL THE HURRICANE
REACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS SHOULD REMAIN INTACT UNTIL WILMA REACHES
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WHICH FAVOR AT LEAST SUSTAINING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY. EYES THIS LARGE ARE ALSO MORE STABLE AND ARE MORE
RESISTANT TO VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ANOTHER 5-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY
OCCUR WHILE WILMA REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GULF LOOP
CURRENT. GIVEN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS WILMA TRAVERSES
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... LESS WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS
COMPARED TO TYPICAL HURRICANES MOVING OVER LAND. THEREFORE... WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC... INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD RESULT IN WILMA TRANSITIONING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM... WHICH MAY PRODUCE A LARGE
GALE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 24.4N 83.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.2N 81.2W 100 KT...INLAND SWRN FLORIDA
24HR VT 25/0000Z 30.2N 76.3W 75 KT...OVER ATLANTIC
36HR VT 25/1200Z 36.5N 69.9W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 26/0000Z 42.9N 64.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 27/0000Z 48.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 28/0000Z 49.5N 49.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 29/0000Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[Jevo]

I guess I am very tired, because everytime I look at the "wilma loop" on weather underground I see more and more of a north movement, I guess its beds time,lol.

lol go to bed man.... this will not make landfall anywhere north of naples ft myers at the extreme.... enjoy your TS conditions tomorrow

[thermos]

From the looks of it, the worst of the weather on the east coast is going to stay from Fort Lauderdale northward. It's already at Key West's latitude, so I'm not sure why people are saying Miami will get a cat 2.

The weather will be to the south and the eye is 55miles wide, some of the eye will pass over dade, and strongest winds o south, miami gets cat 2!

And windows will break in the skyscrapers like I unintentionally posted two or three times like an hour ago.

[johngaltfla]

A bit off my home state's topic, but did you guys see the 5 day? Wow. Can you imagine, in your lifetime, a tropical system heading up to Nova Scotia and Nefwoundland?

I love watching and writing about history, but this is amazing.