Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5
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- AussieMark
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 250848
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
...WILMA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...
505 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH ...85 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING
WILMA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES...695 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST
COAST...HIGH SURF IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
WTNT34 KNHC 250848
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
...WILMA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...
505 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH ...85 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING
WILMA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES...695 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST
COAST...HIGH SURF IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
Last edited by AussieMark on Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- AussieMark
- Category 5
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 250847
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF WILMA IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE
EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS
SYMMETRIC. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX NEAR 00Z WAS ABOUT 40 MILES TO
THE WEST OF THE SATELLITE EYE AND AN SSMI PASS AT 0136Z ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DECOUPLING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AND WILMA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER
ROUGHLY 20C WATERS IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THE TRACK FORECAST OF WILMA AND ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS IS NOT
STRAIGHTFORWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BRISKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED COULD BE SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BELOW SHOULD THE VORTEX SHEAR OUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN
ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS
DEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE
THE GFDL ROTATES WILMA CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NEW LOW INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 24-36 HOURS. THE GFS MAINTAINS WILMA AS A
SEPARATE ENTITY TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
THE SOLUTION PREFERRED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD WILMA
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND NOT SURVIVE MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 34.8N 70.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 38.9N 64.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 57.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 51.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/0600Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/0600Z 47.0N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/0600Z 55.0N 20.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
WTNT44 KNHC 250847
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF WILMA IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE
EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS
SYMMETRIC. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX NEAR 00Z WAS ABOUT 40 MILES TO
THE WEST OF THE SATELLITE EYE AND AN SSMI PASS AT 0136Z ALSO
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DECOUPLING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AND WILMA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER
ROUGHLY 20C WATERS IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.
THE TRACK FORECAST OF WILMA AND ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS IS NOT
STRAIGHTFORWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...WILMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BRISKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED COULD BE SLOWER
THAN SHOWN BELOW SHOULD THE VORTEX SHEAR OUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN
ANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS
DEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE
THE GFDL ROTATES WILMA CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NEW LOW INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 24-36 HOURS. THE GFS MAINTAINS WILMA AS A
SEPARATE ENTITY TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND THIS IS
THE SOLUTION PREFERRED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SHOULD WILMA
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND NOT SURVIVE MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 34.8N 70.0W 100 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 38.9N 64.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 43.0N 57.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 26/1800Z 45.0N 51.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 27/0600Z 46.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/0600Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/0600Z 47.0N 23.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/0600Z 55.0N 20.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
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satellite
does anyone know where i can get a high resolution image of wilma from when she was a cat 5??
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- cycloneye
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P.K and those members who live in Europe Wilma may pay a visit up there.
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Re: satellite
ronibaida wrote:does anyone know where i can get a high resolution image of wilma from when she was a cat 5??
Ask and ye shall receive
http://img486.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... res4sp.jpg
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- cycloneye
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522
WTNT44 KNHC 251431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILMA IS WEAKENING AND
BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT
1117Z SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR CLOUDS SOUTH OF
THE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. WILMA SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT
12-24 HR...WHICH SHOULD FINISH OFF THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
LIKE TO LOSE WILMA IN THE WARM FRONT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN LESS THAN 72
HR. GIVE THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY LAST A BIT
LONGER THAN THAT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 045/046. ASSUMING WILMA IS NOT
ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC LOW...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
BEFORE DISSIPATION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 38.5N 66.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 42.3N 60.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 26/1200Z 44.9N 54.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 27/0000Z 46.0N 47.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 27/1200Z 46.0N 40.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/1200Z 46.0N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/1200Z 50.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
WTNT44 KNHC 251431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILMA IS WEAKENING AND
BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT
1117Z SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR CLOUDS SOUTH OF
THE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. WILMA SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT
12-24 HR...WHICH SHOULD FINISH OFF THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
LIKE TO LOSE WILMA IN THE WARM FRONT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN LESS THAN 72
HR. GIVE THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY LAST A BIT
LONGER THAN THAT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 045/046. ASSUMING WILMA IS NOT
ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC LOW...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
BEFORE DISSIPATION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 38.5N 66.0W 90 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 42.3N 60.0W 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 26/1200Z 44.9N 54.3W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 27/0000Z 46.0N 47.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 27/1200Z 46.0N 40.9W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 28/1200Z 46.0N 30.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 29/1200Z 50.0N 20.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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- HurricaneGirl
- Category 5
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- cycloneye
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Well I am about to lock this very long thread as soon the last advisorie is written so those who still want to comment about Wilma come and post because very soon thread will be locked.
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High res pics of Wilma over the Caribbean:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 40.1km.jpg
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.500m.jpg
The first and second image are from different times. There are 4 difference resolutions available for each image (2km, 1km, 500m, and 250m)... The first link is to a 1km image, and the second to a 500m image. MODIS images are amazing, so check out more of them at http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 40.1km.jpg
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 0.500m.jpg
The first and second image are from different times. There are 4 difference resolutions available for each image (2km, 1km, 500m, and 250m)... The first link is to a 1km image, and the second to a 500m image. MODIS images are amazing, so check out more of them at http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/
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- cycloneye
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25/1745 UTC 40.3N 64.5W EXTRATROPICAL WILMA -- Atlantic Ocean
Wilma has becomed Extratropical and now after 268 pages of good discussions about Hurricane Wilma this thread will close.
Wilma has becomed Extratropical and now after 268 pages of good discussions about Hurricane Wilma this thread will close.
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- cycloneye
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I took the sticky off as the 5 PM advisorie will be the last one as Wilma has becomed extratropical.
P.K watch Wilma over there.
P.K watch Wilma over there.
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- P.K.
- Professional-Met
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There have been people watching out for Wilma over here since 18/10
http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=24620&start=1
![Laughing :lol:](./images/smilies/icon_lol.gif)
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