Long range runs of Global Models,Gamma in Caribbean?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Long range runs of Global Models,Gamma in Caribbean?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 06, 2005 1:18 pm

Image

12z GFS

Well it's a long range scenario but the GFS shows a pretty deep low pressure near the Bahamas.Now let's see if other models show the same and then if the others join the GFS then more attention has to be paid but for now let's see the next runs from this GFS and the other global models to see consistency.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Nov 10, 2005 7:13 pm, edited 5 times in total.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Sun Nov 06, 2005 1:28 pm

Very interesting indeed.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23694
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#3 Postby gatorcane » Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:37 pm

interesting, almost a summer-time setup. I'm curious to see the next model runs myself.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#4 Postby boca » Sun Nov 06, 2005 6:19 pm

Interesting from afar as long as it doesn't move west towards Florida.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 07, 2005 12:13 pm

Image

12z GFS.

Nothing of much great interest today only some weak lows in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic.No other model so far has shown anything so let's see in the next few days if something more concrete shows up.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 08, 2005 6:26 am

Image

Nothing really new from GFS at long range as it continues to show weak lows but nothing strong.Let's continue to watch this and other models to see if the last gasp of the season appears or not.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

#7 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:02 am

Nope.. I think that the season might have 1 more breath but shes done for the most part.
0 likes   

User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:

#8 Postby TS Zack » Tue Nov 08, 2005 4:14 pm

That thing would race Northeast..
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2005 6:45 am

Image

Image

Image

Interesting long range today from GFS showing the above.Let's continue to watch the models to see if others join the GFS or not.
0 likes   

User avatar
jusforsean
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 395
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:22 am
Location: South Florida

Model Run Outlook

#10 Postby jusforsean » Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:31 am

I am a weather impaired :) I am trying to learn how to read all of these things. I am wondering on the model run I can see that florida gets covered in green and then in the last frame there is a darker green just tot he left but else where there is much darker blobs of magenta etc.. So what exactly are we looking at here is the green and green blob left of Fl a bad thing for Fl? Where is the GFS putting a system? Thanks for any insights. I recently started following all the weather websites this season and am learning. Thanks
Jusforsean :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#11 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:36 am

Luis,

The Canadian and Nogaps have joined your parade in the fight to make Gamma....Look like a summertime patterm with a huge ridge...
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Model Run Outlook

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:37 am

jusforsean wrote:I am a weather impaired :) I am trying to learn how to read all of these things. I am wondering on the model run I can see that florida gets covered in green and then in the last frame there is a darker green just tot he left but else where there is much darker blobs of magenta etc.. So what exactly are we looking at here is the green and green blob left of Fl a bad thing for Fl? Where is the GFS putting a system? Thanks for any insights. I recently started following all the weather websites this season and am learning. Thanks
Jusforsean :wink:


Welcome to storm2k and I know you will enjoy it here.About the model graphic what it shows near Florida is anything of concern.But further east in the western atlantic this model shows a deep low pressure tropical or subtropical but as I said in above post this is only one model and we have to see if other models show the same.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#13 Postby boca » Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:33 am

Anything that would form out there potentailly Gamma would move NE because of the upper level westerlies since its November.
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#14 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:40 am

boca wrote:Anything that would form out there potentailly Gamma would move NE because of the upper level westerlies since its November.


Agree...Just another stretch of the record book....
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:33 am

Just what to does CMC have brewing....

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:35 am

Finnally another model joins GFS.Now let's see much more consensus and consistency from the models.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#17 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:37 am

NOGAPS HAS JOINED IN ON THE FUN TOO!!!

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

#18 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Nov 09, 2005 11:44 am

GFS THINKING SOMETHING IS GONNA BE OUT THERE....

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2005 12:08 pm

Image

Image

12z GFS .

What we have to see is if something forms from this if it will be tropical or subtropical.
0 likes   

User avatar
jusforsean
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 395
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 8:22 am
Location: South Florida

Enlighten me

#20 Postby jusforsean » Wed Nov 09, 2005 12:10 pm

Ok so now the models are picking it up ( alittle) what is it that we are looking for? The deeper colors? what is the location of this disturbance so i can find it so i know what to look for and also when i go to the models i do a run for say 72 hrs out , i suppose that is what you are pulling up a certian timeframe out, but on the left you have to choose a system for it to graph ie 93Invest so if there is no current invest system then what do you choose? Thanks for the weather 101
Jusforsean
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: riapal, TampaWxLurker and 80 guests