Storm 81?

#1 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:34 pm

is this the area of interest???

#2 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:37 pm

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:38 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38#1135238

:uarrow:

Nada.

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:39 pm

on that post it says Invest89 not 81

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS (AL892005) ON 20051109 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051109 1800 051110 0600 051110 1800 051111 0600

#5 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:43 pm

ok it is a test message

WHXX01 KWBC 111930

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL812005) ON 20051111 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051111 1800 051112 0600 051112 1800 051113 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 8.7N 80.6W 9.2N 81.4W 9.9N 82.3W 10.7N 83.4W

BAMM 8.7N 80.6W 9.0N 81.4W 9.5N 82.4W 9.8N 83.5W

A98E 8.7N 80.6W 8.9N 80.6W 9.1N 81.2W 8.9N 81.8W

LBAR 8.7N 80.6W 9.2N 80.6W 10.3N 80.8W 11.9N 81.0W

SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS

DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051113 1800 051114 1800 051115 1800 051116 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.2N 84.9W 12.4N 88.6W 13.8N 92.5W 15.8N 95.9W

BAMM 10.1N 84.9W 10.4N 87.7W 10.3N 90.0W 10.1N 92.8W

A98E 8.6N 82.0W 8.4N 81.9W 8.8N 82.6W 8.7N 84.4W

LBAR 13.6N 81.2W 16.2N 81.1W 17.0N 80.3W 17.3N 79.6W

SHIP 39KTS 50KTS 55KTS 55KTS

DSHP 42KTS 53KTS 58KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 80.6W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 8.3N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 45DEG SPDM12 = 2KT

LATM24 = 8.2N LONM24 = 81.3W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

/vol/OPRWTHR/NP/hurr/null
WHXX01 KWBC 111352

CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL812005) ON 20051111 1200 UTC

#6 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:45 pm

I thought that it had something to do with this area....

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 2:54 pm

Real invests are always 90-99. If it's in the 80's, it's a test.

#8 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:37 pm

Actually, it does have to do with the disturbed area north of Panama. It's just not at the level of an official invest though. The "81" number indicates that it's a test run. Once an invest is declared, that number will switch to whatever the next "9x" number is. So, yes, initial BAM runs indicate a westerly track into the Pacific. GFS shows development but no movement for 2 weeks or more. ECMWF shows a weak low there for the next week.

#9 Postby **cjrciadt** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:Actually, it does have to do with the disturbed area north of Panama. It's just not at the level of an official invest though. The "81" number indicates that it's a test run. Once an invest is declared, that number will switch to whatever the next "9x" number is. So, yes, initial BAM runs indicate a westerly track into the Pacific. GFS shows development but no movement for 2 weeks or more. ECMWF shows a weak low there for the next week.

Taking Notice now

#10 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 3:43 pm

Shear still shows that there is 5-20 knots of shear in the area around the area of interest.

WindRunner · #11 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 4:02 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:ok it is a test message

They always say "The following is a test message . . .".

Jim Cantore · #12 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 10:59 pm

Wow

LBAR even screws up tests :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #13 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Nov 11, 2005 11:19 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Wow

LBAR even screws up tests

That's what happens when you don't study for tests. :wink:

#14 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 2:32 am

330

WTNT80 EGRR 120513

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.11.2005

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 15.0N 66.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 15.11.2005 15.0N 66.3W WEAK

12UTC 15.11.2005 14.5N 70.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.11.2005 15.0N 71.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.11.2005 15.0N 71.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.11.2005 15.3N 73.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.11.2005 15.5N 75.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.11.2005 15.9N 77.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

Website · #15 Postby **Brent** » Sat Nov 12, 2005 2:39 am

senorpepr wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:Wow

LBAR even screws up tests

That's what happens when you don't study for tests.

Storm 81?

Storm 81?

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