STORM 82 (Another Test)

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SouthFloridawx
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STORM 82 (Another Test)

#1 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Nov 12, 2005 12:19 pm

Image

THIS IS THE OTHER AREA OF INTEREST

W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT. A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC SWIRL IS EVIDENT NEAR 10N56W
ON NIGHT CHANNEL IR IMAGERY. IT IS QUITE ORGANIZED FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WLY SHEAR SHOULD HAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 53W-58W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 50W-56W.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2005 12:22 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL822005) ON 20051112 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051112 1200 051113 0000 051113 1200 051114 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 56.0W 11.4N 57.4W 11.8N 59.1W 12.4N 60.7W
BAMM 11.0N 56.0W 11.6N 58.2W 12.2N 60.4W 12.9N 62.3W
A98E 11.0N 56.0W 11.2N 58.0W 11.4N 60.1W 11.6N 62.1W
LBAR 11.0N 56.0W 11.6N 57.6W 12.3N 59.2W 12.9N 60.8W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 20KTS 24KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 20KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051114 1200 051115 1200 051116 1200 051117 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.1N 61.8W 14.2N 63.5W 14.5N 64.7W 13.4N 66.4W
BAMM 13.6N 63.7W 14.3N 66.0W 14.4N 68.2W 13.5N 70.7W
A98E 11.8N 63.8W 12.5N 66.7W 12.9N 69.4W 13.1N 72.7W
LBAR 13.6N 62.1W 15.2N 64.0W 17.2N 63.8W 18.3N 61.1W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 56.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 52.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Another test. :)
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#3 Postby Hyperstorm » Sat Nov 12, 2005 12:26 pm

It is in fact a test, but in those coordinates we have a very well-defined tropical wave for mid-November with a very weak LLC. Upper-level winds are very unfavorable for development, but I'm sure they did this test on the models because they are looking at this little feature with some interest.
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#4 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Nov 12, 2005 1:55 pm

CMC 12Z T=72HR

Image
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 12, 2005 2:00 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL822005) ON 20051112 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051112 1800 051113 0600 051113 1800 051114 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 57.5W 11.9N 58.8W 12.4N 60.2W 12.9N 61.5W
BAMM 11.5N 57.5W 11.9N 59.3W 12.4N 61.0W 12.9N 62.5W
A98E 11.5N 57.5W 12.2N 60.3W 12.4N 62.8W 12.4N 65.0W
LBAR 11.5N 57.5W 12.2N 59.5W 13.1N 61.1W 13.9N 62.8W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 22KTS 25KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 22KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051114 1800 051115 1800 051116 1800 051117 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 62.4W 14.7N 63.8W 15.3N 64.9W 15.0N 66.5W
BAMM 13.5N 63.7W 14.2N 65.4W 14.3N 66.8W 13.6N 68.3W
A98E 12.1N 66.8W 11.8N 69.6W 11.1N 72.6W 9.7N 75.9W
LBAR 14.9N 64.2W 16.5N 65.5W 17.8N 65.1W 17.7N 62.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 53KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 57.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 54.5W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 51.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The test continues for 82.
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#6 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Nov 12, 2005 2:01 pm

Image
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#7 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Nov 12, 2005 2:40 pm

Image
A test but for how long?
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#8 Postby Brent » Sat Nov 12, 2005 6:38 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:Image


Those are some weird tracks... :lol:
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#9 Postby jasons2k » Sun Nov 13, 2005 12:09 am

Brent wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:Image


Those are some weird tracks... :lol:


That's because they're all Tropical models. They don't do very well this late in the season.
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