Zeta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[brunota2003]

NO!!! ZETA...*crys* she was the perfect storm too...

[Astro_man92]

Come on Zeta hang in there!!

[JonathanBelles]

one more day!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't understand the nhc because convection seems to be forming over the LLC. Its likely stronger then it was 6 hours ago.

[Astro_man92]

I bet there relying on the models to estimate the intensity and the models are still weakening it

[WindRunner]

I don't understand the nhc because convection seems to be forming over the LLC. Its likely stronger then it was 6 hours ago.

They may still keep a TS storm at 10, the models aren't guarantees, just "likely"s

[Derek Ortt]

it was upgraded based upon rain contaminated QS vectors. Very marginal at best

[gatorcane]

zeta is still around? are you kidding me...I kept reading NHC discussions that it would be a "remnant low" in like 24 hours but that was several days ago

[cycloneye]

I don't understand the nhc because convection seems to be forming over the LLC. Its likely stronger then it was 6 hours ago.

They may still keep a TS storm at 10, the models aren't guarantees, just "likely"s

WindRunner you were right.

[Rieyeuxs]

This is the kind of storm I can root for. No danger to land (some lack of excitment), but of the otherhand, it's fun to root for the underdog...

Go Zeta!

[Weather Watcher]

Hang in there Zeta 1 more day!!!

[Coredesat]

No change in the numbers:

06/0545 UTC 23.2N 49.2W T1.5/1.5 ZETA

I'm expecting a re-downgrade at 4.

[Cookiely]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 060832
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT ZETA IS BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HR AGO. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A 35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A 38 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0446 UTC.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. ZETA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ZETA SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD A LITTLE...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. ALL
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE MODELS. THE TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT...AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING
OVER ZETA WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD BRING STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT...
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ZETA STARTING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48-60 HR.
GIVEN THAT ZETA HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR THE REMNANTS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT...WITH
DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 23.3N 49.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 23.8N 50.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.6N 52.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[wxman57]

zeta is still around? are you kidding me...I kept reading NHC discussions that it would be a "remnant low" in like 24 hours but that was several days ago

Zeta HAS been a remnant low since yesterday. The NHC appears to be bored. It's nothing more than a low-level cloud swirl.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA (AL302006) ON 20060106 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060106 1200 060107 0000 060107 1200 060108 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 49.5W 21.4N 50.3W 19.4N 51.8W 17.5N 53.7W
BAMM 23.0N 49.5W 22.5N 51.1W 21.9N 53.5W 22.0N 56.1W
A98E 23.0N 49.5W 22.5N 50.4W 22.0N 51.9W 21.5N 54.0W
LBAR 23.0N 49.5W 22.5N 50.1W 21.8N 51.6W 21.2N 53.3W
SHIP 30KTS 24KTS 16KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 24KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060108 1200 060109 1200 060110 1200 060111 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 55.4W 14.3N 58.1W 13.6N 60.6W 13.6N 61.4W
BAMM 22.8N 58.4W 25.0N 60.7W 25.7N 62.9W 28.3N 64.2W
A98E 21.5N 56.3W 22.3N 60.2W 24.0N 62.8W 26.4N 62.4W
LBAR 20.2N 55.0W 18.3N 56.4W 16.6N 54.6W 17.2N 53.1W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 49.5W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 48.4W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.2N LONM24 = 47.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models downgrade once again Zeta to depression.

[jawa89]

If the NHC sent the Huricane Hunter plane out to 'seed the clouds' around the eye maybe it would last a few more days.

[HURAKAN]

I THINK THE FINAL DAY HAS ARRIVED!

[recmod]

Some posters were wishing for Zeta to linger on to outlast Alice of 1954/55 as the longest lived December into January storm. Well, I think Zeta has that record, since Alice had a total of 29 advisories issued for it and Zeta is now at 29 also. While it appears the 5pm advisory will be Zeta's curtain call, that will be advisory #30.

--Lou

[Coredesat]

Zeta should be completely gone by 4 PM, if not much earlier. There's practically nothing there on IR, and you can barely make out the LLCC on visible satellite.

[sponger]

RIP! It may be awhile before we get another Z storm!