
0z GFS VERY intresting
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- Yankeegirl
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Joe Bastardi continues to forecast it getting much much much coloder across the nation in 7-10 days. He says the wildfire pattern will break in the southern plains and a wetter, colder pattern will set up. He says that the latest models are showing a pattern that is colder than he originally even thought. We could be talking about a pattern as cold or colder than early decembers. Areas in China are seeing their coldest winter in 20 years; it is this cold air that will creep over the poles, into Canada and then straight down into the central and eastern United States. Looks very interesting at the least, and I am sure some people will respond to this with "no way, winter is over" or "The GFS doesn't currently show that", or "All the cold will be east of Texas", but I still think that we can expect much colder air in 7-10 days. And those snow threat threads will probably need to start up again. Lets hope this plays out..I will be very happy if it does..
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- Extremeweatherguy
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BTW, the GFS actually does currently support the cold. In fact it has been pretty consistant with bringing fridged air into the state around the 16th/17th. Latest run shows 850mb temps. colder than -5C in Houston on the 17th, but it has a period from the 16th to 20th where the 850mb temps. are below 0C. It also shows a little LIGHT rain/snow mix around Houston on the night of the 16th, but nothing major (this too needs to be watched). I also just looked at the European which tries to bring in some cold air on the 14th. Keep in mind that we are now talking the 7-10 day time frame for a possible arctic front...we are no longer talking 14-15 days out. The likelyhood of this actually happening is beginning to look better and better.
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- deltadog03
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- Extremeweatherguy
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deltadog03 wrote:the 7 day euro from 00z run shows a nice ULL with some possible snow next friday night....temps are -3C here at 850mb...in (dallas)
Yeah with such cold air pouring into the state..I think we see a decent snow/ice storm in northern Texas next weekend, with it possibly reaching the Houston metro before ending on Saturday. Would not be surprised if we don't manage to get out of the 30s in Houston next Saturday with all the cold air advection and the variable cloud cover. In Dallas you guys may see a few more below freezing days? Continues to look very interesting...glad to see I have some support from some of the other members now too and that everyone is not still shouting "winter is over!" lol. people come to conclusions so quickly. We have a week or two above normal and suddenly it's spring to some people. Can't wait to see how the models play out over the next few days.
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- southerngale
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:Joe Bastardi continues to forecast it getting much much much coloder across the nation in 7-10 days. He says the wildfire pattern will break in the southern plains and a wetter, colder pattern will set up. He says that the latest models are showing a pattern that is colder than he originally even thought. We could be talking about a pattern as cold or colder than early decembers. Areas in China are seeing their coldest winter in 20 years; it is this cold air that will creep over the poles, into Canada and then straight down into the central and eastern United States. Looks very interesting at the least, and I am sure some people will respond to this with "no way, winter is over" or "The GFS doesn't currently show that", or "All the cold will be east of Texas", but I still think that we can expect much colder air in 7-10 days. And those snow threat threads will probably need to start up again. Lets hope this plays out..I will be very happy if it does..
Does he forecast all of Texas to be encased in ice?

Ok, only kidding! Seriously, I like the guy and hate when people bash him. He's usually great with patterns, etc. and I always learn something from him. I just had to say that cuz it was such a bust for everyone (including quite a few mets!) who forecasted the extreme cold. I think I ended up in shorts outside during that time. lol
I'm always interested in what Joe has to say, winter or summer, so keep us posted.

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yeah Joe B rules
))
Im still waiting for Big Storm up here in Maine...its been kinda Dull so far
We got a few rain storms and stuff, but no big Nor Easters or anything yet
One of our local Mets said in about a weeks time, there will be a Pattern change, with much colder air coming into our area,,,but didn't say anything about Snow....we'll just have to see

Im still waiting for Big Storm up here in Maine...its been kinda Dull so far

We got a few rain storms and stuff, but no big Nor Easters or anything yet

One of our local Mets said in about a weeks time, there will be a Pattern change, with much colder air coming into our area,,,but didn't say anything about Snow....we'll just have to see
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:deltadog03 wrote:the 7 day euro from 00z run shows a nice ULL with some possible snow next friday night....temps are -3C here at 850mb...in (dallas)
Yeah with such cold air pouring into the state..I think we see a decent snow/ice storm in northern Texas next weekend, with it possibly reaching the Houston metro before ending on Saturday. Would not be surprised if we don't manage to get out of the 30s in Houston next Saturday with all the cold air advection and the variable cloud cover. In Dallas you guys may see a few more below freezing days? Continues to look very interesting...glad to see I have some support from some of the other members now too and that everyone is not still shouting "winter is over!" lol. people come to conclusions so quickly. We have a week or two above normal and suddenly it's spring to some people. Can't wait to see how the models play out over the next few days.
This extremely warm and dry pattern looks to finally break accross Texas sometime in the next 7-10 days, opening up a colder and wetter pattern. The GFS is sure interesting. I'd bet sometime after Jan 16 is when we'll finally see some COLD weather. Let's continue to keep our fingers crossed!

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- Extremeweatherguy
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12Z GFS is still just as cold or even colder. It has the arctic front arriving the 17th, but the biggest blast of cold comes the 19th. By the night of the 19th it has almost the ENTIRE state of Texas under 850mb temps. below -5C, which even the furthest south areas well below 0C. With 850mb temps. between -5C and -7C in Houston...ANY radiational cooling will spell a very, very cold night with lows in the teens or lower 20s at the warmest. It also shows a nice wintry mix starting on the 18th over the state which would end as all snow...even in the Houston metro. The GFS has been aiming for cold on these dates for quite a few runs now (it even had hinted at it over 5 days ago). With such a good trend...I am starting to believe that we may be dealing with the coldest air of the winter...if not the coldest air in year starting by next weekend or at the latest the week of the 16th. I am going to throw this out there, I am not sure if I will be right or wrong, but I am going to make a prediction on the COLDEST high/low temp. I feel will be coming to Texas by the end of January...
Amarillo = 12/-5
Dallas = 27/5
Austin = 29/12
Houston = 33/19
San Antonio = 32/17
Corpus Christi = 37/24
Brownsville = 41/28
Now I realize that those numbers may seem a little extreme, but really they are only a few degrees colder than what we saw during that cold snap in early December. At this point..these numbers could even be too high? But I am not willing to make a guess for anything colder yet. Keep in mind that Houston has not hit the teens since 1996, so if it were to happen, then it would be the first time in a decade.
Amarillo = 12/-5
Dallas = 27/5
Austin = 29/12
Houston = 33/19
San Antonio = 32/17
Corpus Christi = 37/24
Brownsville = 41/28
Now I realize that those numbers may seem a little extreme, but really they are only a few degrees colder than what we saw during that cold snap in early December. At this point..these numbers could even be too high? But I am not willing to make a guess for anything colder yet. Keep in mind that Houston has not hit the teens since 1996, so if it were to happen, then it would be the first time in a decade.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Jan 07, 2006 4:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- weatherrabbit_tx
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:Joe Bastardi continues to forecast it getting much much much coloder across the nation in 7-10 days. He says the wildfire pattern will break in the southern plains and a wetter, colder pattern will set up. He says that the latest models are showing a pattern that is colder than he originally even thought. We could be talking about a pattern as cold or colder than early decembers. Areas in China are seeing their coldest winter in 20 years; it is this cold air that will creep over the poles, into Canada and then straight down into the central and eastern United States. Looks very interesting at the least, and I am sure some people will respond to this with "no way, winter is over" or "The GFS doesn't currently show that", or "All the cold will be east of Texas", but I still think that we can expect much colder air in 7-10 days. And those snow threat threads will probably need to start up again. Lets hope this plays out..I will be very happy if it does..
hmmmmm, got a feeling this got to give, its got to balance out, I mean 80 to 85 degrees just a string of them here in southeast texas, what goes up must come down in the temps department, I guess were noone was here in the 80s when temps would be 80 to 85 a week or two only to have them bottom drop out from them

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Big cold shot coming perhaps, but it doesn't last for more than a few days, pacific jet too strong and prevents a locking of the longwave trough. It means we're back to zonal and mild weather a few days afterward. And I don't see much winter weather with the cold weather either.
JB continues to hype this up, I'm sure. But I imagine a lot of disappointment unless you expect two or three days of below to well below normal temperatures and little precip then back to the same old same old.
JB continues to hype this up, I'm sure. But I imagine a lot of disappointment unless you expect two or three days of below to well below normal temperatures and little precip then back to the same old same old.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- weatherrabbit_tx
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:Yankeegirl wrote:All I want for my birthday is Snow! My birthday is the 19th of Jan... Everyone keep their fingers crossed!!!!
~lisa
As of the 12Z GFS run, your birthday wish will come true...but knowing the GFS I wouldn't put money on it yet.
all for yankeegirl to have snow for her b-day

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18z GFS is interesting, too:
If this panned out it would mean one hell of a snowstorm from the southeast onward, although it hasn't initialized too far out into the future from that point as of this post.
So far from my count the last 4 runs have been showing this, so I do think that it's getting a grip on what is happening with Asia and the teleconnections involved.

If this panned out it would mean one hell of a snowstorm from the southeast onward, although it hasn't initialized too far out into the future from that point as of this post.
So far from my count the last 4 runs have been showing this, so I do think that it's getting a grip on what is happening with Asia and the teleconnections involved.
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- AL Chili Pepper
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